Clemson vs Miami Picks, Odds: Why to Bet the Underdog
Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke.
- The Clemson Tigers face the Miami Hurricanes in a Saturday night ACC college football showdown.
- The Tigers enter as -3 favorites despite playing on the road, as the total sits at 47.5.
- Read on for Clemson vs Miami picks and odds, including a best bet from our BJ Cunningham.
Clemson vs Miami Odds
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Two teams having incredibly disappointing seasons meet in Coral Gables on Saturday as Clemson takes on Miami.
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney tried to damper expectations this week for the fan base by saying they have "unrealistic expectations," as Clemson will miss the College Football Playoff for a third consecutive season.
With two losses already in the ACC, it's pretty unlikely that the Tigers make the ACC Championship unless they win out and get some help.
Miami suffered a catastrophic loss to Georgia Tech two weeks ago. The Canes could have just kneeled the ball but instead ran the ball and fumbled it, allowing the Yellow Jackets to throw a touchdown pass as time expired to cap off one of the most inexcusable losses of all time.
They followed that up by turning the ball over repeatedly against North Carolina, losing 41-31. So, if there was ever a spot to turn around the season, it's at home on Saturday night against Clemson.
If you could point to a reason why the Tigers offense has struggled, it's their ability to take advantage of their scoring opportunities. Clemson has had 42 drives end inside its opponent's 40-yard line but has averaged only 3.6 points per scoring drive, which is 75th in the nation.
The rushing attack, though, has been very successful.
Will Shipley has continued to be efficient in the backfield, averaging 5.1 yards per carry to help Clemson rank 16th in Rushing Success Rate. However, the Tigers haven't been a very explosive rushing attack, ranking 96th in rushing explosiveness, which is something Miami is good at limiting defensively.
So, that means a lot of the pressure will be on quarterback Cade Klubnik to deliver in this game, which is not a position Clemson wants to be in.
Klubnik has been well below average this season, putting up just 6.4 yards per attempt while recording a negative EPA/Pass on the season.
Image via PFF.
The biggest problem for Klubnik is that he struggles under pressure. He's been under pressure on 31% of his snaps this season and has a 39% completion percentage on those plays while averaging just 4.3 yards per attempt and recording six turnover-worthy plays.
Miami features a really good secondary, so this will likely be a long night for the Clemson offense.
The Clemson defense has been solid this season, ranking 14th in EPA/Play. However, there are some issues, and they start up front.
Clemson is doing a poor job of controlling the line of scrimmage, ranking 97th in Stuff Rate and 35th in Defensive Line Yards.
It also hasn't been good in third-and-short or fourth-and-short situations, ranking 129th in Power Success Rate Allowed, which measures the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converts a first down or scores a touchdown. First- and second-and-goal plays within the 2-yard line are also included, per CollegeFootballData.
Even though the last two games have been a nightmare with plenty of comedic errors, this Miami team is still really good. The Hurricanes are eighth in EPA/Play and have been very successful both running and throwing the ball.
Tyler Van Dyke has been one of the better passers in college football this season. He has a PFF passing grade of 91.2 and ranks 22nd in EPA/Pass because of his ability to throw the deep ball.
Van Dyke is averaging 9.3 yards per attempt with 17 big-time throws, which is the fourth most in college football. He leads college football on passes over 20 yards in the air with a 96.4 PFF passing grade while averaging 19.9 yards per attempt on those throws.
Even though Van Dyke has been great, the real advantage in this game for Miami is going to be in the trenches. The Canes' offensive line ranks fourth in Offensive Line Yards, third in Stuff Rate Allowed and 10th in terms of a PFF run-blocking grade.
Most importantly, nobody has been better than the Hurricanes in those third- or fourth-and-short situations, as Miami leads the nation in Power Success Rate.
The Miami defense has been good from a Success Rate standpoint, but where it's struggled is defending in its own end of the field. The Canes rank 92nd in Finishing Drives Allowed, which is real a problem. However, with Clemson struggling to score in the red zone, we could have a bit of a stalemate.
Miami will need to stop the run in this game to put the pressure on Klubnik, which it can do. Miami allows only 3.5 yards per carry while ranking 20th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 10th in Defensive Line Yards.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Clemson and Miami match up statistically:
Clemson Offense vs. Miami Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 20 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 44 | |
| Havoc | 43 | 20 | |
| Finishing Drives | 85 | 92 | |
| Quality Drives | 77 | 39 |
Miami Offense vs. Clemson Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 13 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 19 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 28 | 52 | |
| Quality Drives | 13 | 14 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 32 | 13 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 72 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 71 | 5 |
| Middle 8 | 42 | 19 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (43) | 28.3 (94) |
| Rush Rate | 51.0% (82) | 51.6% (71) |
Clemson vs Miami
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is the bottom of the market on Miami after what has transpired in the last two games.
Here's the question I'd like to pose: If the Hurricanes simply kneel the ball against Georgia Tech and don't turn the ball over four times against North Carolina, where is this line sitting? My guess is Miami would probably be favored at home.
The Canes will have the advantages in the trenches, along with advantages on third and fourth down, which is going to be incredibly key in this game.
On top of that, Klubnik has been well below average and won't be able to light up the Miami secondary, which puts pressure on a Clemson rushing attack that hasn't been elite by any stretch of the imagination.
I have Miami projected at a -1.1 favorite, so I like the value on Miami +3 at home.
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