Big Ten Win Totals & Futures | Action Analytics 2023 Betting Preview
James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: A football helmet with the Big Ten logo.
Despite the Big Ten not having a team in the National Championship, 2023 may have been one of the most successful in the conference's history. Two teams in the conference — Ohio State and Michigan — made the College Football Playoff, and both games exhibited the modern era of college football: high scoring and excitement with excellent quarterback play.
Ohio State's CJ Stroud cemented his place as the second overall selection in the NFL Draft with the best performance of his college career on the brightest stage, while Michigan's JJ McCarthy had great volume stats but two costly interceptions.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Big Ten acquitted itself well in bowl season by going 5-2 in non-CFP games.
However, there are question marks heading into this season.
Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin enter the season searching for new answers at quarterback. Should they find them, any of those teams can compete for the Big Ten title, as all are listed as less than 10-1.
Will I be snatching up any of those Big Ten futures? Let's dive in.
Maryland Over 7.5 · To Win B1G Title
+110 · +10000
The Terrapins enter the 2023 season with a plethora of advantages.
They start the season with the third-most returning production in the Big Ten, a productive senior quarterback, an exciting new offensive coordinator and the easiest schedule in the Big Ten.
The Terps open their season against Towson, Charlotte, Virginia, Indiana and Michigan State — both of those conference opponents should be very bad this season — before finally playing Ohio State.
We have Maryland favored by more than a touchdown in eight of its games as of writing. Ohio State also has a CJ Stroud-sized question mark at quarterback. The only other game Maryland isn't favored in is against Penn State, and that line is less than a field goal.
One thing I haven't mentioned is Maryland's excellent defense.
In particular, the Terps do a fantastic job on both standard downs and passing downs. This shouldn't be a surprise after the unit ranked in the top 40 in Success Rate, explosiveness and points per opportunity last season.
I am slamming the Terps' win total and sprinkling them to win the Big Ten. At 100-1, it feels like I'm getting an absolute steal.
Michigan State rashly awarded Mel Tucker $95 million over 10 years after a Cinderella 11-2 season in which it upset Michigan in a top-10 rivalry matchup. Unfortunately for the Spartans, Kenneth Walker III and Payton Thorne are not walking through that door this season.
The Spartans were ravaged by transfers and players leaving for the draft, so the talent pool is significantly worse than last season. As a reminder, that team went 5-7. Do we really think this team will improve? I do not.
This isn't a case of a quarterback leaving and TARP gets dragged down on offense. Both sides of the ball were ravaged, and Tucker didn't replace this talent adequately in the transfer portal in terms of potential or college production.
Not only that, but both sides of the ball were bad last season. So, the Spartans head into the season with almost no continuity.
After this season, Jay Johnson might want to write Kenneth Walker a thank-you note for his Broyles Award nomination in 2021. Is three years too early for Tucker buyout talks?
Central Michigan +14.5 · ML +420
at Michigan State · Sept. 1
I don't think I can talk trash about the Spartans like I did and not take their Week 1 opponent.
I think Michigan State will struggle to move the ball against a Central Michigan team that causes a ton of Havoc. As I outlined before, this Spartans offense was not good last year, and it will not be good this year.
I can't wait for the team totals to drop.
Washington Huskies -12
at Michigan State · Sept. 16
I promise this will be the last pick fading Michigan State, but this line is one we can't avoid. We have this game at Washington -22, and the books have it at Huskies -12.
Look at this as a potential Heisman campaign launch for Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Wisconsin plays four teams that rank in the bottom 30 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed: Washington State, Georgia Southern, Nebraska and Northwestern.
Allen rushed for over 1,200 yards last year, and with an entirely new offensive system from Phil Longo coming, it's entirely possible the Badgers lean on him early as they work the kinks out — which is a good thing considering they play Washington State in Week 2 and Georgia Southern in Week 3.
Wisconsin is good at staying out of passing downs, as it plays in standard downs 70% of the time. This allows it to run the ball consistently on second and third downs, when most teams are forced to pass.
At the end of Week 3, I would not be shocked to see Allen sitting just shy of 450 yards with nine games left to make up the difference.
I'm more than happy to back the best running back in the country this season at a very reasonable total.
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