Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State Odds
| Northern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 54 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 54 -110o / -110u | -140 |
The Camellia Bowl enters its 10th consecutive season of pitting the Sun Belt against the MAC.
All eyes will descend on Montgomery, Alabama, to the Cramton Bowl, famous for being the first stadium in the south to have a night game under the lights in 1927.
The Sun Belt has taken six of the past nine in this bowl, as Arkansas State and Northern Illinois look to enter the offseason on a positive note. These teams last met in the 2011 GoDaddy Bowl in Mobile with the Huskies taking home the victory.
Head coach Thomas Hammock will look to get Northern Illinois off the mat after the program lost seven straight bowl games since facing Arkansas State in 2011.
The Huskies needed a victory over Kent State and Western Michigan over the final two weeks of the season to qualify for a bowl, as five of their wins came in MAC play.
Arkansas State also finished with six wins on the season, finding an offensive groove in the second half of the year. The Red Wolves posted 114 points in their final two home games against Louisiana and Texas State to snag a spot in the postseason.
This is Arkansas State's third trip to the Camellia Bowl, with its last win coming over Florida International in 2019.
Northern Illinois Huskies
As a former Northern Illinois running back, Hammock loves to pound the rock. Antario Brown leads the ground attack with more than 1,100 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
Sixth-year quarterback Rocky Lombardi generated 112 yards off designed runs, but nine fumbles added on to his career total of 28.
The Huskies prefer outside zone read concepts with a middling Success Rate at 49%.
Brown notched 25 explosive runs this season, leading Northern Illinois to a top-20 rank in Rush Expected Points.
Mama, there goes that man!
Antario Brown with the 61-yard house call! @NIU_Football | #MACtionpic.twitter.com/5a6B7CDnku
— #MACtion (@MACSports) November 1, 2023
The Huskies struggled defensively to stop opposing rush attacks. The 4-2-5 defense labored against inside zone, posting a poor 44% Success Rate against the concept.
Northern Illinois failed to rank inside the top 100 in Line Yards and fell to 130th in Stuff Rate.
While the Huskies failed to produce any success against the rush, the back seven proved to be one of the best teams in the MAC in stopping the pass. Northern Illinois shined in Cover 1, producing a rank of 16th in Passing Downs Success Rate.
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Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones found offensive continuity once making a change at the quarterback position. Freshman Jaylen Raynor took over starting duties at the end of September against Southern Miss and never looked back.
With an average depth of target of 13.2 yards, Raynor ended the season with 15 touchdowns to just six interceptions.
Arkansas State became a dangerous team in terms of downfield passing, finishing the season top-25 in pass explosives. Raynor posted 17 big-time throws to just three turnover-worthy plays on passes over 20 yards.
It was plays like this touchdown pass to Jeff Foreman that earned @AStateFB quarterback Jaylen Raynor the CFN Freshman Player of the Week award 🔥
80% completion. 418 yards. 6 TDs.#CollegeFootball | #ADifferentBreed
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) October 1, 2023
The freshman was just as deadly on the ground, running inside zone read with running backs Zak Wallace and Ja'Quez Cross. The trio combined for 18 rushing touchdowns in coordinator Keith Heckendorf's fast-paced offense.
The Red Wolves did struggle in producing a top 100 rank in Quality and Finishing Drives, so scoring in the Camellia Bowl should come from explosives.
The defense, meanwhile, finished top-35 in coverage grading, per PFF.
Linebacker Javante Mackey led the team in tackles but has since hit the transfer portal with a commitment to Mississippi State.
There are plenty of Havoc contributors on the defense, as edge rushers Thurman Geathers and Keyron Crawford combined for 78 pressures.
The Red Wolves run one of the highest rates of zone coverage, opting to play exclusively in quarters. Cornerback Samy Johnson leads the pack, ranking top-20 individually in passes defensed.
NIU vs Arkansas State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas State and Northern Illinois match up statistically:
Arkansas State Offense vs Northern Illinois Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 89 | 85 |  |
| Line Yards | 87 | 111 | |
| Pass Success | 84 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 64 | 130 | |
| Finishing Drives | 106 | 51 | |
| Quality Drives | 103 | 37 | |
Northern Illinois Offense vs Arkansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 87 | |
| Line Yards | 38 | 89 | |
| Pass Success | 90 | 89 | |
| Havoc | 83 | 113 | |
| Finishing Drives | 104 | 96 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 111 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 32 | 81 |
| PFF Coverage | 33 | 40 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 60 | 113 |
| Middle 8 | 71 | 35 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.0 (27) | 29.2 (107) |
| Rush Rate | 56.0% (57) | 55.9% (39) |
NIU vs Arkansas State
Betting Prediction, Pick
Northern Illinois lost one of its leading players to the transfer portal.
Center Pete Nygra entered the transfer portal before the bowl game and decided that he will play for Louisville next season. Nygra played 1,529 snaps at center over the past two seasons, as opposing pass-rushers failed to record a single sack against him.
Fifth-year senior Logan Zschernitz has logged 2,326 career snaps at right guard but now plans to play center for the first time in his college career.
Lombardi and Brown will have success in outside zone attempts, but the line of scrimmage and run-blocking assignments will be under a microscope for Northern Illinois.
Arkansas State is the more capable offense in terms of creating the explosive play with Raynor. The Huskies will pivot between nickel and dime packages with Cover 3, a look that Raynor has a 49% Success Rate and a 14% explosive play rate against.
The Red Wolves' rushing attack and success on standard downs provide the biggest advantage against a Northern Illinois team that finished 117th in tackles for loss.
Pick: Arkansas State -3 or Better
