College Football Odds, Prediction for Arizona vs. UCLA: Our Bettors Debate Saturday’s Spread

Arizona vs. UCLA Odds

By Mike Ianniello

When you think of Chip Kelly teams, it fast-paced, high-flying typically offenses come to mind.

However, UCLA is 6-2 this season behind a dominant defense. It's been the best defense in the Pac-12 this season allowing just 15 points per game and only 4.2 yards per play.

The strength of this unit is up front with one of the country’s best defensive lines. This unit ranked No. 1 in the country in pressure grade at Pro Football Focus.

Star edge rusher Laiatu Latu is a complete game-wrecker for the Bruins. He has 41 quarterback pressures, the fourth most in the country.

Latu has 9.5 sacks on the season but he’s not alone on this fantastic defensive front. Twin brothers Gabriel and Grayson Murphy each have 40 quarterback pressures and make up a UCLA front that is fourth in sacks and sixth in tackles for loss.

Up front is where it all starts, but this entire unit has been terrific.

The Bruins secondary is 10th in coverage grade and hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer all season. Cornerbacks Jaylin Davies, John Humphrey, and Alex Johnson have been lock down in coverage and have great ball skills.

Opponents are completing just 58% of their passes against this Bruins secondary and they have just as many interceptions as touchdowns allowed through the air.

If you would prefer to run on this defense? Well, good luck with that too. They have allowed 2.1 yards per carry and just 63.1 rushing yards per game this year. Both are second-best in the country. UCLA has allowed just one rushing touchdown all season.

Let me say that again… they have allowed just one rushing touchdown in eight games this season. Oh, and it was against North Carolina Central late in the fourth quarter with the Bruins leading 59-7 when they had their water boys and student managers in the game.

Pure domination.

This defense is elite, and while Arizona has found success on offense against some of the dreadful defenses in the conference this year, the Bruins are going to be their toughest task.

I will happily back the team I’m confident will have the best unit on the field Saturday.

By Tanner McGrath

Is anyone paying attention to Arizona?

The Wildcats are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and 5-0 ATS as an underdog, covering the number by over 17 points per game.

All three straight-up (SU) losses have been by one possession, two came in overtime, and two came to top-10 teams in USC and Washington.

The Cats are off back-to-back straight-up wins as underdogs to ranked opponents Oregon State and Washington State.

Why isn’t everyone talking about Arizona?!

All the Wildcats do every week is get up off the mat, exceed expectations and cover the number.

Jedd Fisch has this team firing on all cylinders. The defense is stingy, especially up front, and backup quarterback Noah Fifita is running the Wildcat offense better than Jayden de Laura was.

For some reason, bookmakers remain asleep at the wheel.

This week, those bookmakers have made Arizona a three-point home ‘dog despite the fact(s) that:

• UCLA’s struggled on the road, flailing in their two Pac-12 road games (14-7 loss to Utah, 36-24 loss to Oregon State)
• Arizona is 18-6-1 ATS as a home ‘dog since 2005, including 2-0 this year
• Arizona’s played the tougher schedule
• Our Action PRO model projects this game as a pick ‘em.

So, I’ll keep grabbing the points with the most undervalued team in college football.

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Ianniello: Arizona made the switch at quarterback to Fifita and while he's less reckless, he’s also less mobile.

Also, I’m not convinced he's less reckless. He has just three interceptions this year but he has five turnover-worthy plays with just two big-time throws in his two starts.

UCLA made a similar switch at quarterback, sitting down the more electric but erratic freshman Dante Moore in favor of Ethan Garbers. He has settled the offense down, throwing four touchdowns with one interception in the last two games and completing 73% of his passes since taking over the job.

Garbers has had great chemistry with slot receiver Logan Loya, and the Bruins also have big-play threat J. Michael Sturdivant on the outside. He's averaging 17 yards per reception.

This UCLA offense ranks 23rd in the country in explosiveness, and Sturdivant is a big reason why.

Running the ball has been the strength of UCLA with their two-headed monster of Carson Steele and T.J. Harden.

After leading the MAC in rushing last season, Steele transferred to the Bruins and is averaging 84.3 yards per game. He's a tackle-breaking machine, leading the Pac-12 with 517 yards after contact.

Steele and Harden have combined for 11 touchdowns on the ground and are each averaging more than 5.3 yards per carry. This ground game continues to heat up, rushing for more than 200 yards in three straight games.

Arizona is just 76th in the country in Success Rate on defense and has allowed more than 6.3 yards per play in three of its last four games.

While the Bruins might be less explosive with Garbers instead of Moore under center, they have been more efficient, and they should be able to move the ball consistently on this Wildcats defense.

McGrath: Everybody knows about UCLA’s defense. I’ll admit that the Bruins are menacing on that side of the rock.

But, what you might not know is that Arizona is top-20 nationally in most advanced rush defense metrics — GameOnPaper shows the Wildcats with the nation’s fourth-best EPA per Rush Allowed mark.

They’re allowing only 3.2 yards per carry. They more than held their own against the dominant Oregon State ground attack, with the Beavers amassing only 131 rush yards on 29 attempts.

That leads us to the second-most important part of this handicap: These are two excellent rush defenses, and they’re facing two excellent rush offenses

UCLA is averaging over 215 rush yards per game at five YPC. The Carson Steele-TJ Harden duo has accounted for over 1,200 scrimmage yards at 5.5 yards per touch.

Arizona boasts a similarly excellent rush attack. It’s actually better on a per-attempt basis, as it ranks third nationally in Rush Success Rate, but some of that is that the Wildcats are more balanced offensively.

The Cats rank 14th nationally in Pass Success Rate behind two explosive wideouts, Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan, and the nation’s pass-blocking offensive line (Literally, Arizona boasts the highest PFF Pass Blocking grade by almost two points. So, good luck to that deadly UCLA defensive front you’re talking about, Mike).

Since Fifita took over for De Laura, he’s been magnificent. He won the Pac-12 Freshman of the Week thrice in October. He’s completed 75% of his passes for 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns with only three interceptions.

Fifita is deadly accurate, has weapons on the outside, a tremendous pass-blocking offensive line and a good running game to take pressure off him. He’s taking what defenses are giving him and has been lights out doing that, and the Arizona offense is reaping the rewards.

That leads us to the most important part of this handicap:

In a matchup between two excellent rush offenses and two excellent rush defenses, whichever team gets better quarterback play will likely win

UCLA is an uber-reliant rush offense, running the ball 39 times per game, 16th-most nationally. Part of that is because the Bruins are a good rushing offense, as mentioned, but the other part is because the Bruins boast a lousy aerial attack.

The Bruins are 87th in Passing Success Rate and sub-100th in EPA per Dropback. The receiving weapons aren’t great — not a single Bruin has a PFF receiving grade over 80 — and the offensive line ranks 97th nationally in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades.

Under center, Moore is a horrific passer, and Garbers isn’t anything special.

Ultimately, both offenses may struggle to establish the rush in this one, especially if the opponents decide to bring the defense down and stack the box.

In that situation, Fifita, Cowing and Co. are better equipped to make the necessary, winning plays than Garbers and whoever.

So, not only are the Wildcats criminally undervalued as a home ‘dog, but I like the schematic matchup for them.

Ianniello: First of all, thrice is a stupid word. Just say three times, like a normal person.

I know some of the metrics skew in Arizona’s favor, but I can find plenty that favor the Bruins. At the end of the day, both have strong rushing attacks. But I’ll still take Steele and Harden.

Arizona boosted its rushing stats largely against a USC defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed and UTEP, which is horrific. UCLA laid an absolute dud against Utah, which skews its numbers down a bit.

Over the last four games, this team is averaging 226 rushing yards per game.

And I’ll take the Bruins' run defense. This team is full of elite tacklers and five players on the UCLA defense have a run defense grade above 80 at PFF. Arizona doesn’t have any.

I like Cowing and McMillian a lot, but I trust Humphrey, Johnson and Davies to slow them down. The Bruins rank 10th in the country in coverage grade and are elite ay keeping things in front of them. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 108th in coverage grade.

As good as the Arizona passing grades are, it hasn't faced a defensive line close to this. The best front it's faced is probably UTEP, and it tallied three sacks against the Wildcats.

When the Bruins do get pressure, they’ll have success. Fifita is not as mobile as de Laura, as 22% of his pressures turned into sacks, and he's been taken down three times in two of the last three games.

Arizona is one of the least explosive teams in the country. It ranks 118th at generating big plays. That means it'll need to be able to consistently move the ball down the field and remain on schedule against one of the best defenses in the country.

If the Cats can’t do that and get behind the chains, that will allow this elite defense front to pin its ears back and get after the quarterback.

Fifita has looked OK thus far, but he's still a redshirt freshman who has turned the ball over five times in four starts.

Garbers is accurate, he doesn’t turn the ball over, he operates this offense efficiently and relies on his running game and defense to win the game. That's what I expect here.

McGrath: Fifita is 100% less reckless than de Laura. He will throw the ball away when the play isn’t there. Meanwhile, de Laura was happy to shove the ball into tight coverage far too often, leading to four interceptions against Mississippi State — that won’t happen with Fifita under center.

And are you sure Garbers is so much less reckless than Fifita? In 200 career dropbacks, Fifita has four big-time throws to five turnover-worthy plays. In 198 career dropbacks, Garbers has four big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays.

And are you sure Garbers is as accurate as Fifita? His completion rate is five points lower.

I’ll still take the thrice-awarded (still using it) Pac-12 Freshman of the Week Fifita over Garbers, who has played in three games this season.

And what does Arizona’s Coverage grade matter when UCLA is sub-70th in PFF’s Passing grades? And how is UCLA going to “pin its ears back” against the nation’s best pass-blocking line?

And you want to talk about the schedule?

UCLA’s nonconference consisted of Coastal Carolina, San Diego State and North Carolina Central. The Bruins tallied over 400 yards of rushing against NCC, which is a pretty good way to boost your numbers.

And look at the conference road games.

Against Utah, UCLA had the honor of shutting down noted pig farmer and backup quarterback Bryson Barnes, who could muster only 117 passing yards. The Bruins still lost, 14-7, because they tallied nine rushing yards on 32 carries against a stout Utah front.

By the way, Utah ranks 55th nationally in PPA per Rush, while Arizona is 36th. Hmm…

Against an actual offense, Oregon State dropped 415 yards on 7.7 yards per play on this dominant defense up in Corvallis.

I’m not so confident UCLA will waltz into Tucson and play up to their top-10 statistical profile. The Bruins failed to do so in their past two road opportunities.

Arizona is going to need to consistently move the ball against a UCLA defense that ranks 11th at preventing big plays, ninth at defending Finishing Drives and seventh at creating Havoc.

UCLA ranks top-30 in the four most important metrics on defense. Arizona is not explosive, and I don’t expect it to be successful in methodically moving the ball against the Bruins defense.

The one area that has plagued UCLA at times has been turning the ball over, but the switch to Garbers allows it to play a safer game and rely on its skill and strong defense.

Also, the Wildcats are not an aggressive team. They have forced just eight turnovers all year, with just two interceptions.

I agree, the Wildcats have been underrated in the market. But I think they have finally adjusted, and this line is pretty fair.

Of their seven covers, six of them came as favorites or underdogs of at least a touchdown. They beat Oregon State by three at home as three-point underdogs in a coin-flip game where they were outgained and probably outplayed.

UCLA is power-rated higher than Oregon State (and Arizona). The Wildcats have kept things close against some bad defenses, but this will be their toughest test.

Give me Garbers. Give me Steele. And give me this dominant defense.

These two rushing defenses will stand strong against two good rushing offenses.

But, when it comes time to nut up or shut up, Fifita will step up and make the big throws, and Garbers will crumble on the road in a hostile environment.

UCLA has a great rushing attack and a top-notch defense, but Arizona is a more well-rounded team coached by an up-and-coming superstar.

Fisch has his Wildcats exceeding expectations more than any team in college football, and the near-perfect ATS record proves it.

Combine that with Arizona’s perfect home record and UCLA’s rocky road resume, and this has all the makings of another Wildcat underdog outright win. But I’ll happily take a field goal either way.