Air Force vs Hawaii Odds & Pick: Bet Road Favorite in Saturday’s Nightcap

It's time to dive into the Air Force vs. Hawaii odds and find a pick for this late-night college football game on Saturday, Nov. 11.

There's nothing that gets the juices flowing like a late-night Hawaii game on a Saturday night. Not only is the game itself usually bizarre, but I treat it as a dessert to cap off an action-filled 11 hours of football.

Finding a good stream or the correct TV channel is also a war of its own, which should guarantee a win on whatever action you have on the game. Regardless, it's a tradition that I look forward to every single fall.

Air Force will be traveling to Hawaii after getting completely dominated by Army last week as 18.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Rainbow Warriors defeated Nevada on the road, 27-14, and will look to pull off a big upset here at home.

Let's take a deeper dive into this game.

I had Army as my best bet last weekend, but I didn't expect Air Force to lose the game outright. The Black Knights completely took control of the game from the opening kick, forcing multiple Falcons turnovers.

It appears the Falcons' New Year's Six bowl aspirations may have vanished, but they get a really tasty matchup here. Comparing the metrics of both of these teams, the Air Force has the edge in essentially every category.

Even with a poor performance last week, the Falcons are still top-15 in Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards. This should be a game where they take advantage of an awful Hawaii run defense.

Air Force ranks second in the nation in Havoc Allowed, which is key for this game since it's the one defensive category Hawaii is strong in.

The Falcons had some turnover regression coming last week after being pretty fortunate in that department, but I expect them to get back on track in this matchup. Six turnovers is a massive number for a service academy team, so there's no way that type of performance will be repeated.

Quarterback Zac Larrier was careless with the football against Army, but I think he should have more success in this matchup, as I doubt he'll have to rely on his arm.

Defensively, the Falcons should be able to shut down this Run N' Shoot offense. They're top-25 in Defensive Quality Drives, Passing Success Rate and Line Yards.

I realize its schedule has not been the strongest, but this defense will be hungry after getting destroyed last week. I expect a fully focused and much more efficient effort from the Falcons in this spot.

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Oh, Timmy Chang. I wish I could have any faith for your Bows in this spot, but this is a terrible matchup on paper.

Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager has shown plenty of flashes of being an elite passer, but his 12 interceptions have held him back in a big way. He'll now be going against a strong Air Force secondary, which is not great given his turnover-worthy throw track record.

What's astonishing is this offense is all gas, no brakes. I mean, this team is dead last in rush rate at 33%. It's not too uncommon for the Run N' Shoot offensive philosophy, but this is bad news going against a triple-option offense that will most likely dominate the time of possession.

The Bows' offensive metrics are ugly overall, notably ranking bottom-20 in Line Yards, Havoc and Finishing Drives. Without wasting any more time, I don't see any path of offensive success against this Falcons defense.

Defensively, I'm even less optimistic that the Bows can contain this Air Force rushing attack. This Hawaii unit ranks bottom-40 in Rushing Success Rate. Add in the fact that it has only one week to prepare for the triple-option attack, and there are clear problems for the Rainbow Warriors across the board.

The Bows are 117th in Defensive Finishing Drives, which is a nightmare scenario against an opposing offense that plays at a snail's pace.

Air Force will undoubtedly control the clock throughout this game, which won't even give the Bows a fighting chance to keep up offensively.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Air Force and Hawaii match up statistically:

Air Force Offense vs Hawaii Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	15	90
Line Yards	5	68
Pass Success	29	107
Havoc	2	46
Finishing Drives	26	116
Quality Drives	28	127

Hawaii Offense vs Air Force Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	97	42
Line Yards	113	23
Pass Success	81	18
Havoc	116	44
Finishing Drives	117	69
Quality Drives	63	17

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	1	123
PFF Coverage	6	88
Special Teams SP+	35	102
Middle 8	34	75
Seconds per Play	32.2 (133)	26.2 (53)
Rush Rate	88.7% (1)	36.2% (133)

If it wasn't obvious enough, I love Air Force in this game. After getting embarrassed last week, it could not have created a better matchup to bounce back in.

The beautiful part about service academy teams is they're rarely affected by travel and usually come out inspired the week after a loss. There's no concern for motivation in this spot.

There will always be a backdoor scare, but I trust the Air Force offense to control the clock and score at will when it crosses into Hawaii territory.

I expect a focused effort from the Falcons, and they should dominate from the opening kick.

Pick: Air Force -19 (Play to -21)

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