Miami vs Kentucky Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 164.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 164.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
We get the ACC/SEC Challenge started with the Miami Hurricanes traveling to Lexington, Kentucky, to take on the Kentucky Wildcats. Both of these high-flying offenses have been on absolute fire to begin the year, so this should be a terrific back-and-forth affair.
The Wildcats are coming off a game in which they dropped an astounding 118 points against Marshall.
Meanwhile, Jim Larranaga's Canes are coming off a Final Four season, and it appears that the losses of Jordan Miller and Isaiah Wong aren't impacting them too much on the offense side of the ball.
Miami Hurricanes
Is there a more lethal offensive duo in the sport right now than Nijel Pack and Wooga Poplar? These two have been on a tear to start the season, and they're a huge reason why the Canes have gotten off to a hot start.
You would think Pack shooting 40% from 3-point land is impressive, but Poplar is shooting 60% from beyond the arc himself. Of course, negative shooting regression is bound to happen, but he's a flamethrower.
The Canes' offense will need to keep up in this matchup, as they're facing a Cats team that's been just as impressive on the offensive side of the ball. In what's expected to be a fast-paced contest, I think the Canes should be able to continue their offensive success.
This is the No. 1 team in the nation in 3pt%, and luckily for them, the Cats have been mediocre at defending the perimeter so far this season.
However, the Canes will be at a severe height disadvantage. They run a really thin rotation, and this will not help their struggles on the offensive glass.
The Cats will limit extra possessions for the Canes, but Miami has proven to be efficient enough inside and out to cash in on its opportunities. Even if the Canes go through a cold stretch, I wouldn't expect that to last very long.
Defensively, I do like the Canes' edge in limiting easy shots from the outside. They've been excellent when it comes to defending 3s, and that will help in this one, as the Cats are shooting a tremendous 42% from deep on the year.
The Canes have the talent to keep up with the Cats, but I have major questions about their lack of depth and height. It's been a nice start to the season, but I think Miami is going to have a hard time coming out of Lexington with a victory.
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Kentucky Wildcats
The Cats were considered to be a dark horse Final Four team entering this season, and I can clearly see why. Despite their loss to Kansas, they've been one of the most impressive teams in the entire country to start the season.
In this matchup, the Cats have a huge edge in athleticism and depth that helps tilt things in their favor.
Kentucky is fourth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, including a staggering ninth in field goal percentage. What's been most impressive is that they're No. 1 in the country in offensive turnover percentage, which tells me they've been extremely discipline with the basketball.
The two areas that are concerning offensively for the Cats is their inability to crash the offensive glass and their inability to generate fouls. However, I think this is a matchup in which they can exploit the Canes' height disadvantage.
The Cats will need to figure out some defensive issues in this matchup, though. They haven't been too terrible to begin the season, but they've shown they can be vulnerable on the perimeter.
Their length won't matter if the Canes are raining 3s all day, and Tre Mitchell will have his hands full with Norchad Omier on the inside. I don't think this is the best matchup for Kentucky's defense to get right.
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Miami vs. Kentucky
Betting Pick & Prediction
KenPom makes this total 164, so I will be targeting the over in this game. I'm hoping to grab it before it skyrockets before tip.
It's a bit of a chalky pick, but I just don't see how both of these teams get many stops on the defensive side of the ball. Since they both struggle to grab offensive rebounds, that should help our case for the over.
There's always the scare that both of these teams are due for negative shooting regression, but the fast tempo of this game should cancel that out if it does occur. The Canes have a huge edge on the perimeter, whereas the Cats should feast inside due to Miami's lack of height and depth.
Strap in for what should be a highly entertaining game featuring a lot of explosive offense. Let's get this over to the window.
Pick: Over 163.5 (Play to 165)
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