Don't let your eyes deceive you too much when you watch a team blow out an inferior opponent in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Historically, teams coming off 20-plus point victories have hit at just a 44% ATS clip in the second round over the last 20 years, including 26-37 (41.3%) ATS when their opponent won by single digits in the game prior.
That trend applies to all three 'dogs I'm betting on Sunday, and I believe all three are undervalued. So, here's my March Madness expert predictions for Sunday, March 22.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State
This is basically a speculative bet on Joshua Jefferson not being available. If he can't suit up (and it didn't look promising after the game against Tennessee State), I'll be elated to have this ticket in my pocket.
He's arguably worth 4.5-5 points to the spread, in my opinion. He's that important on both ends of the floor for the Clones (there's a reason he's listed at No. 2 in the KenPom player of the year rankings, trailing only Cam Boozer), and if at full strength, he would pose significant matchup problems for the Cats' shaky pick-and-roll defense.
Iowa State's offense just becomes so much easier to defend without Jefferson in the lineup, while the Clones' depth and defense also takes a hit. Some of the on/off splits are pretty staggering.
I don't love this Kentucky team by any stretch, but I do prefer to back it as an underdog. The Wildcats should have enough scoring punch on the perimeter to keep this close — and even win outright if Jefferson is sidelined. Also, the recent emergence of Brandon Garrison certainly helps down low for Kentucky.
Psychologically, Kentucky can come into this game playing completely free as an underdog after its miraculous win over Santa Clara. Meanwhile, who knows where Iowa State is at mentally if it turns out Jefferson is actually lost for the season, which is certainly a possibility.
Lastly, Iowa State really struggles at the line (332nd nationally in free-throw percentage), which certainly could come into play late and swing a cover in Kentucky's favor.
Notable Nugget: Mark Pope has thrived as an underdog of more than one possession in his coaching career. When catching more than three points, he's gone 35-19-2 (64.8%) with an average cover margin of 2.7 points per game.
Pick: Kentucky +5.5
Kansas vs. St. John's
Hand up, I was dead wrong on Northern Iowa in the first round. I thought the Panthers could keep it close with the Johnnies due to the matchup, but the physicality and athleticism advantage Rick Pitino's bunch owned was just too stark.
That obviously won't be the case against Kansas.
These two teams profile very similarly on the surface: two elite coaches with imposing top-10 defenses to go along with inconsistent offenses. As a result, this profiles as an absolute grinder (I don't mind the under here) in which we'll likely see extended droughts from both squads.
Ultimately, I just can't get to this number that I project just under, so I'll happily take over a possession with Bill Self, their defense and the best player on the court in Darryn Peterson, who has great ability in isolation (which the Johnnies force you into frequently).
Also, think about this for a minute: When is the last time St. John's faced a truly elite guard? It's hard to make a case for many in the very down Big East this season, especially with how much UConn's backcourt has struggled.
You might have to go all the way back to the non-conference portion of the Red Storm's schedule, when they struggled on the defensive end of the floor.
Conversely, Kansas has been through a gauntlet, with the most difficult strength of schedule of any team in the field. The Jayhawks are as battle tested as anybody.
I do show value in this number, but this also makes sense from a buy-low/sell-high perspective. Since getting waxed by UConn, the Red Storm have won seven straight, ranking second nationally over that stretch, per Bart Torvik.
They're also sitting in the top 30 in Haslametrics' Momentum Ranking. They're definitely playing their best basketball of the season, but the level of competition has certainly helped, as has an unsustainable 24% opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
On the other hand, Kansas ranks 67th over that same span, running at a -5% 3-point delta, thanks primarily to hitting 30% on 3s. The Jayhawks aren't a great 3-point shooting team but they're more than capable from the perimeter. And if you're looking for a potential shooting regression spot, this might be it.
Ultimately, Kansas defense should be able to keep the limited St. John's offense in check. St. John's is a rim-attacking offense (84th percentile rim rate), but that's a tough way to make a living against the Jayhawks.
Led by Flory Bidunga, Kansas ranks in the 99th percentile in rim efficiency, while excelling at limiting those attempts. The Jayhawks can be deadly in transition with their athleticism, but they have a rock solid transition defense (25th percentile in frequency allowed; 82nd percentile efficiency, per Synergy).
St. John's also gets to the line frequently, but Kansas rarely fouls.
Now, the Jayhawks never force turnovers (which is usually problematic), but the Johnies rarely turn it over anyway, so that strength is neutralized a bit here.
All of that is to say it's going to be tough for Pitino's crew to score in the half-court.
Now, the same can be said for Kansas on the other end of the floor, but I'm okay having over a possession with Peterson and some potential shooting regression in my pocket, even if I do have some concerns about the battle of the boards tilting the shot volume edge in the favor of St. John's.
Lastly, in a potentially low-scoring grinder — where buckets could be hard to come by for long stretches — it's worth noting that Kansas is the superior free throw shooting team, which could tilt this highly-anticipated showdown in its favor.
Pick: Kansas +3.5
Iowa vs. Florida
Well, if you're looking to fade a team coming off a ridiculous performance, Iowa might be for you following Florida's 59-point win over Prairie View A&M.
Incredibly, the Gators covered the largest spread in NCAA Tournament history by 24 points.
Did I take much from that performance? Not really. I'm still closer to eight on this spread and will gladly go to war with Ben McCollum and Bennett Stirtz needing to keep a game within 10 in a tourney setting.
We pretty much know what we're going to get from McCollum in this spot. Iowa is going to grind this game to a halt with the ball in Stirtz's hands for a majority of the night. The Hawkeyes aren't going to turn it over (and are likely to win the turnover battle significantly), which helps even out the rebounding disadvantage. That will be significant.
However, Iowa doesn't really care that much about getting offensive rebounds. The Hawkeyes would much rather get back and limit opposing transition opportunities, which is critical against Florida's lethal transition offense (88th percentile transition efficiency, compared to only 69th in the half-court).
Therefore, Florida being one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country doesn't matter as much in this particular matchup.
Florida also grades out elite in every way when it comes to transition defense, including opportunities. Again, that doesn't matter against the grinding Hawkeyes, who will have opportunities in the half-court to exploit Florida's vulnerable pick-and-roll defense (39th percentile at 92nd percentile frequency).
That's especially the case if some of their stretchier bigs can hit some outside shots.
Speaking of which, since February 15, Florida has run at a net +7% 3-point delta — shooting over 37% and holding opponents to right around 30%. Meanwhile, Iowa has run at a -5% delta over that same stretch, as opponents have shot near 39% from beyond the arc.
For reference, Florida is running at a negative in that department for the full season, while Iowa is at a +2%. I wouldn't be shocked if Florida had a very poor shooting night, and the impact of that would be magnified in a game that should be played more on Iowa's slower terms.
Now, Florida can annihilate Iowa at the rim and will have a large talent advantage, but that's why it all comes down to the number.
If this was sitting at eight, I would pass, but I'm in at 10+.
In the Bens we trust.
Pick: Iowa +10.5
