Iowa vs Purdue Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | +600 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
We head to West Lafayette, Indiana, where the Purdue Boilermakers will look to bounce back when they host the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Purdue was exposed by Northwestern on Friday, so I'm curious to see if the Hawkeyes follow a similar offensive game plan.
Below, we have college basketball odds and a pick for Iowa vs. Purdue.
Iowa Hawkeyes
New year, same old Hawkeyes. Entering this matchup, they're fifth in the nation in Adjusted Tempo.
The way to beat Purdue is to pull Zach Edey out of the paint. Iowa's offense will most likely run a ton of ball screens, causing as many mismatches as possible.
Despite the clear mismatch down low, the Hawkeyes rank inside the top 35 in average height. This group is physical enough to keep up in a fast-paced contest.
The Hawkeyes are an offensive machine, as they're 14th in the country in Offensive Efficiency.
What allows them to be so successful starts with their ability to take care of the ball. The Hawkeyes are fifth in the nation in turnover percentage, which will be a key component in this matchup.
Also, I'm intrigued to see how Patrick McCaffery and Payton Sandfort match up against this Purdue frontcourt. This is an area where the Hawkeyes need to capitalize, as you can't rely on containing Edey forever. That means McCaffery and Sandfort have to consistently hit their 3s in order to keep up.
The aforementioned defense hasn't been too terrible to begin the year for the Hawkeyes, but they've been getting killed on the offensive glass. That means Edey is going to grab every second chance he can get in this game.
Iowa ranks in the middle of the pack in defending the paint, but I'd be surprised if it has success in this game.
Iowa does a great job of staying disciplined, so the Boilermakers won't be able to take advantage of their terrific free throw shooting.
I really like this Iowa offense, and it's going to have to show up against this good defense. I expect a lot of attempts from the outside and a multitude of ball screens to create some mismatches.
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Purdue Boilermakers
It's safe to say that the Boilermakers will be fired up to bounce back after Friday night.
This matchup should be business as usual for Purdue, as I like a lot of the matchups it has on the offensive side of the ball. Edey should have an absolute field day inside, as this is a Hawkeyes team that doesn't defend the paint at an elite level.
I doubt the Boilermakers will mind if this game turns into a track meet. They're fourth in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 59th in Adjusted Tempo.
This team hasn't only completely dominated down low, but it's 11th in the country in 3PT%. This should bode very well for this matchup, as the Boilers will be able to exploit the Hawkeyes' defense in multiple ways.
It's no surprise that the Boilers go to the free throw line often because of Edey, but there's a difference between attempting free throws and actually making them. This group really struggled at the charity stripe down the stretch last year, but this season, that hasn't been an issue.
Defensively, this group has held its opponents to 27% from the 3-point line, but I have a feeling that won't be the case in this matchup. I only say that simply because I expect the Hawkeyes to avoid the paint as much as possible, which leads me to believe they'll be firing from deep all game.
The Boilermakers have a clear rebounding edge, which means they won't allow many second chances on offense. However, they're amongst the worst teams in the nation when it comes to forcing turnovers, which leads me to believe the Hawkeyes won't be disrupted much on offense.
Iowa vs. Purdue
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a great bounce-back spot for Purdue, but I have more faith in the over.
The Hawkeyes will be challenged by this Boilermakers defense, but the way Iowa's offense functions, I think it should get plenty of opportunities to cash in due to its high tempo.
Both of these offenses love to go fast, so I expect a lot of possessions for each team. Edey should also dominate on the glass, which will lead to a lot of tip-ins after misses.
KenPom makes this total 171, so I'll happily target this number at 166. There are too many paths for points in this game, and despite the Boilermakers' stingy defense, I think the Hawkeyes will find ways to cash in from the outside.
Add in the variable that both of these teams are excellent from the free throw line, and we should see a high-scoring affair at Mackey Arena.
Pick: Over 166 (Play to 168)
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