Below, you'll find my favorite player prop for each Final Four game, in addition to a same-game parlay I placed for Purdue vs. NC State.
Dive in now for Final Four player props.
NC State vs. Purdue
Unfortunately, I'm looking to fade DJ Burns Jr., who's admittedly hard not to root for. However, fresh off a dominant 29-point performance in an upset win over Duke, I think there's some value in going under his point total.
Life on the block won't be as easy as it's come of late for Burns, who won't enjoy the same strength advantage he's exploited in so many recent matchups. Zach Edey can match Burns' physicality and also has elite length to contest everything he throws up near the rim.
Plus, there's a chance Burns — who averages just under four fouls per 40 minutes — gets into foul trouble. That could potentially limit his playing time even more for a guy who's only played in a tad over 60% of the minutes this season.
Amazingly, 29 opposing big men fouled out in 37 games against Purdue.
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For what it's worth, only four starting five men eclipsed 14.5 points against Purdue this season. And if you remove 3-pointers (Burns has only made one on five attempts all year), that number drops to two, with Iowa's Ben Krikke and Marquette's Oso Ighodaro each getting to exactly 16 points.
Opposing starting centers averaged only seven points per game against the Boilermakers, who make it extremely difficult to operate in the post, which is where Burns makes his living.
Lastly, Burns only scored 15 or more points in regulation in 14 of the 40 games (35%) he's played in this season. Excluding overtime, he averaged 12.8 points per game and wasn't going up against Edey on a nightly basis.
Also, if you're looking for a fun same-game parlay, I threw one in for this game that pays over 4-1 odds with the following three legs:
- Purdue ML
- Fletcher Loyer Over 1.5 3s Made
- Mason Gillis Over 1.5 3s Made
NC State has undoubtedly been on quite a run, starting with five wins in five days to win the ACC Tournament to punch its ticket to the Big Dance. However, the Wolfpack have certainly benefited from some good fortune over that span.
Not only did they survive two overtime scares, their last eight opponents have shot just 26.2% from outside the arc. In the 32 games prior, their opponents connected on 35.8% of their long-distance attempts, which ranked 300th in the country.
That looming regression could lead to disaster against the Boilermakers, who are one of only two teams in the nation with a 3-point percentage north of 40%.
The open looks should be there for the Purdue shooters, especially with all of the attention NC State will have to dedicate to Edey in order to stay out of foul trouble.
Pick: DJ Burns Jr. Under 14.5 Points (-110)
Alabama vs. UConn
After an underwhelming stat line against Illinois, I believe Tristen Newton is prime to bounce back in a major way against Alabama on Saturday. That should especially be the case in a game that features plenty of possessions (the Tide rank ninth in Adjusted Tempo).
UConn has played 14 opponents that rank inside the top 100 in Adjusted Tempo this season. In those games, Newton has averaged over 35 combined points, rebounds and assists, while clearing the 29.5 benchmark in 11 of those 14 contests (78.6%).
And those 14 clubs had an average Adjusted Tempo ranking of approximately 60th, whereas the Tide will mark the fastest opponent the Huskies will face all season.
As a result, the well-rested Newton should have plenty of opportunities to fill up the stat sheet in a game where he should log heavy minutes against a defense that doesn't force turnovers (291st nationally).
Long defensive rebounds could come in bunches for Newton — who's logged double-digit boards in seven games this season — against a Tide team that I expect to launch a heavy volume of 3-pointers.
Alabama also ranks 272nd in defensive rebounding rate, so he could even add a few on that end as well.
Newton has also finished with 10 or more assists six times this year, including four instances in his past 11 games.
Plus, UConn has amazingly led by 30 in all four games of the tournament so far, despite not shooting it well from distance. Since their opening-round blowout of overmatched Stetson, the Huskies are just 16-65 (24.6%) from beyond the arc, which includes a combined 6-of-39 (15.4%) against Northwestern and Illinois.
If those 3s start falling against a very suspect Crimson Tide defense, Newton could rapidly rack up the assists and points. Newton is only shooting 31.9% from 3 on the season, but he's made at least three in nine of 23 games over the past three months.
Lastly, Newton also could add plenty of easy points from the free-throw line against an Alabama defense that ranks 311th nationally in foul rate. With Alabama trailing, there's a chance he could even add some cheap ones late as the primary ball handler.
For what it's worth, the career 82% free-throw shooter has made 10 or more in a game four times since the calendar flipped to 2024.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Newton finish with a triple-double.
Pick: Tristen Newton Over 29.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-120)
