Saturday College Basketball Player Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 6:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
I have two picks at 3:30 p.m. ET for my college basketball player props today. We're betting a trio of unders in some big conference tournament matchups. Let's get to it.
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Nebraska vs. Illinois
Marcus Domask
Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-115)
This isn't a number that Domask typically clears. He's made multiple 3-pointers in a game just four times in 20 conference games this season.
Nebraska is a solid defensive team that has held opponents to a 46% effective field goal rate, which is the 12th-best in the country.
I simulated this game 10,000 times to get an exact distribution of the likelihood of Domask's 3-point total today:
| 3s Made | Odds % |
|---|---|
| 0 | 25.2% |
| 1 | 37.1% |
| 2 | 23.6% |
| 3 | 9.8% |
| 4+ | 4.2% |
I'm projecting Domask as having a 62% chance of staying under 1.5 3-pointers made today.
Pick: Marcus Domask Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-115)
Texas A&M vs. Florida
Tyrese Samuel
Under 14.5 Points (-110)
Texas A&M is a 3-point funnel defense. As a result, it only allows 45% of points against to come from inside the arc, which is one of the lowest rates in the country.
Samuel makes his living inside, so this should be a tough spot for him to clear this number. He had a season-low six points when these teams met back in early February.
I'm projecting Samuel for closer to 13 points with a 61% chance of staying under 14.5. Here are the projections for him:
| Points | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 12.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 13.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 14.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 15.5 | 31% | 69% |
Pick: Tyrese Samuel Under 14.5 Points (-110)
Marquette vs. UConn
David Joplin
Under 4.5 Rebounds (-130)
Joplin has cleared this line in four of his last five games but has stayed under this number 64% of the time in conference play. This is a matchup where it should be much tougher for him to clear this number.
UConn is one of the best shooting teams in the country and a very good rebounding team. In fact, the Huskies rank 11th overall in our rebound efficiency metric.
Both of those factors will provide Joplin with fewer rebound chances while also potentially forcing him to give up a few boards.
He also may see fewer minutes tonight, as Marquette could opt to give Ben Gold some more floor time against a UConn team that has more size than the Golden Eagles' first two Big East Tournament opponents. Gold’s minutes would come at the expense of Joplin, as Oso Ighodaro will rarely leave the court tonight.
I’m projecting Joplin closer to 3.8 rebounds with a 66% chance to stay under 4.5
Pick: David Joplin Under 4.5 Rebounds (-130)
