Just like last year, each week for the remainder of the college basketball season, I will share my favorite spots for the Saturday slate. In addition to my raw projection, I will focus on matchups, similar spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
For this week, I will highlight three buy-low, sell-high spots that all tip off in the afternoon.
For reference, I write these up on Friday afternoon after the openers come out. The market will obviously move overnight, so I always will list which price I'd play each game to.
- 2022-23: 33-22 (60.0%) +9.24 units
- 2023-24: 6-6 -0.6 units
- Overall: 39-28 (58.2%) +8.64 units
Virginia Tech vs. NC State
Virginia Tech should come out focused and hungry for this game. Not only do the Hokies need a win after dropping four of five in league play, they also likely want to avenge an embarrassing loss at the hands of the Wolfpack in the ACC Tournament last season.
Conversely, NC State has started 5-1 in league play, but I haven't been overly impressed by the Pack. Not only have they benefited from an extremely easy conference slate to date, they've needed quite a bit of fortune in their wins:
- Needed overtime to beat Boston College
- Beat Notre Dame 54-52 after never leading by more than two
- Pulled away from lowly Louisville late
- Came back from a double-digit deficit to beat Wake Forest
I'm totally fine selling high on the Wolfpack here.
From a matchup perspective, Virginia Tech has excelled at limiting transition opportunities and it defends them at an elite level when teams do get out and run. That's critical against an NC State team that looks to push when it can.
The Hokies also grade out as elite when defending the pick-and-roll, so most of NC State's damage will have to come inside with DJ Burns Jr. He should get his fair share of points in the post, but there's only so much damage he can do inside.
This NC State team just doesn't have the same explosiveness it had on the perimeter last season, which caused the Hokies' guards issues.
Meanwhile, I think Virginia Tech can actually thrive in transition against a very poor NC State transition defense. The Hokies don't look to run often, but have been deadly when they do. Theoretically, the sets Mike Young likes to run should also work against this version of the NC State defense.
I have Virginia Tech power rated higher than NC State and I like the matchup/spot, so I was happy to take anything over three here.
Pick: Virginia Tech +3.5 (Play to +2.5)
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Clemson vs. Florida State
Staying in the ACC, this is a good opportunity to buy low on Clemson (which has lost four of five), while selling high on the resurgent Seminoles (who have surprisingly won five straight against ACC foes).
The Tigers have obviously had a very disappointing start to league play after promising out-of-conference results. However, part of that can be attributed to poor shooting luck. Through six conference games, Clemson is shooting just 29.0% from beyond the arc, while its opponents have connected on 42.2% of their long-range attempts, which both rank last among 15 ACC teams.
Positive regression looms on both ends.
Additionally, this is a favorable matchup for the Tigers, who don't turn the ball over (36th nationally) and grade out extremely well against the press (89th percentile, per Synergy).
Both are absolutely paramount against the scrambling, aggressive Florida State defense that forces turnovers at a top-30 rate and presses at the fifth-highest clip in the country.
If you can make Florida State operate in its half-court offense, that's when Leonard Hamilton's bunch struggles to score efficiently, especially since the Tigers can control the defensive glass, limiting FSU's second-chance opportunities.
Also, due to that aggressiveness, Florida State does inevitably foul frequently, which Clemson should capitalize on as an excellent shooting team from the charity stripe.
With an extra day to prepare, Clemson should come out with a fully focused effort after seething over a double-overtime loss at home to Georgia Tech for the past four days.
Meanwhile, Florida State might come out a bit flat after a huge win at Miami, as it'll potentially feel a bit satisfied after its recent run of success.
Pick: Clemson -1 (Play to -2)
Mercer vs. Samford
I think we've reached the peak of the market on the Bulldogs, who find themselves in a tricky situational spot on Saturday at home against Mercer.
Fresh off a huge road win at Western Carolina that extended its current winning streak to the nation's longest of 16 games, Samford will have to avoid overlooking Mercer with a major revenge spot on deck. That spot is against a Furman team that swept Samford last year, with the second victory coming in the regular season finale to decide the conference champion.
Meanwhile, the Bears should come out with a bit of desperation after losing four of five to begin league play.
From a matchup perspective, Mercer could slow Samford's high-flying offense enough to stay within this number. How will the Bears do that? By forcing turnovers, which has been a problem for Bucky McMillan's team at times.
Mercer is extremely undersized, but it won't be overwhelmed in that department in this particular matchup.
Samford has a very unique profile. The Bulldogs, who want to push in transition at all costs, will also press and mix in zone at extremely high frequencies. That could prove problematic for Mercer, which has struggled in both areas.
However, I ultimately just think this line is a bit too high. I'm selling high on Samford in a classic sandwich spot with a bit of looming shooting regression splits that could work in Mercer's favor.
Pick: Mercer +15 (Play to +14)
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
After beating Baylor in overtime and with Iowa State and Houston on deck, Kansas State could come out a little flat in this potential sleepy spot against the desperate Pokes, who remain the only unbeaten Big 12 team in league play.
Amazingly, Oklahoma State has gone 0-5 in games decided by five points or in overtime, while Kansas State is a perfect 5-0 in overtime alone.
Oklahoma State doesn't do many things well, but it can defend the rim, which is key against the Wildcats, who want to get to there at all costs.
It also at least does a pretty good job of defending without fouling and can compete on the defensive glass — another pair of key factors when facing Jerome Tang's bunch.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas State also allows a high frequency of 3-point attempts by going under screens, which Oklahoma State will welcome since it hoists 3s at a top-40 clip and has a number of capable perimeter shooters.
Plus, Kansas State has some way overdue regression on the defensive end when it comes to opponent 3-point shooting. During league play, opponents have only connected on 23.7% of their 3-point attempts, which is an unsustainable number, especially considering the scheme.
The Wildcats have also run a bit hot in that department on the offensive end.
I'm buying low on the Pokes, who have also had a significantly more difficult strength of schedule to begin league play than the Wildcats.
Pick: Oklahoma State +9 (Play to +8.5)
Revenge Tour Quick Hitters
- I'll be watching to see if star guard Cameron Tyson suits up for Seattle against red-hot Grand Canyon. It's not ideal that the Redhawks found themselves in an overtime game 2,300 miles away on Thursday against Stephen F. Austin, but they do match up very well against the Lopes, since they can defend the post and compete on the defensive glass. Plus, Alex Schumacher can contain Ray Harrison. Seattle swept the regular season series last year but came up just short in the conference tournament, so I'm sure it's had this spot circled. Tyson's status looms large, though.
- I've personally had this spot for UNCW against Charleston circled since the preseason. The Seahawks got triple-swept last year by the Cougars, who staged a pair of late comebacks, with one coming in Wilmington and the other in the conference championship to punch a ticket to the Big Dance. Undersized UNCW will have some issues on the glass, but it's a better version of last season's squad, while Charleston has taken a slight step back. Plus, the Seahawks do have some viable paths to efficient offense in transition — through the pick-and-roll and in isolation — against this Charleston defense.
- Norfolk State will have triple revenge on its mind when it travels to Howard on Saturday. One of those losses came as a result of celebrating too early, while the other happened as a result of late free throws in the conference title game. These are fairly different rosters than last season, but I expect Norfolk State head coach Robert Jones to have his team fired up for this one. It's also a decent matchup on paper, as Howard has really struggled against zone defenses this season (which it'll see plenty of here) and it simply can't defend in transition. That spells trouble against the Spartans. However, there are a few injury questions on each team, so I'm going to try to get more concrete info before firing anything here. Stay tuned on the app.
