Utah vs Oregon Odds & Pick: Fade the Utes?

Let's dive into the Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks odds and make a pick in our NCAAB betting guide for Saturday, March 9.

The Utah Utes and Oregon Ducks entirely worked their way off the NCAA Tournament bubble with losses Thursday. Now, one of the two could improve its standing in the NIT picture in this Pac-12 matchup Saturday.

The Utes enter their regular-season finale at 18-12, while Oregon is slightly better at 19-11. Let's break down both teams below in our Utah vs. Oregon prediction and pick.

Talk about an absolute gut punch for Utah, which lost to Oregon State in Corvallis on Thursday despite Branden Carlson dropping 40 points.

If your best player scores 40 points, you should come away with a win regardless of the opponent. Considering just how bad Oregon State is, that loss officially put the nail in Utah’s at-large coffin.

The Utes rely on three players for scoring: Carlson, Deivon Smith and Gabe Madsen.

All three average double digits in points, but they attack defenses in different ways. Madsen is terrifying coming off screens for 3s, Smith is lightning quick and attacks the teeth of the defense and Carlson does it all as a 7-footer. That’s the best part of Utah’s game — offensive flexibility.

The other end is more concerning. Following the loss to Oregon State, Utah ranks 59th in defensive efficiency. The Utes have a fairly unathletic team and get exposed by quick, athletic players like Jordan Pope from Oregon State. Utah struggled with Arizona State’s physicality in a loss and Colorado’s quickness in another loss.

The Utes need the game to fall in their play style or it could get ugly.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

The Oregon Ducks just feel so average. The numbers back that sentiment, as the Ducks rank 66th overall in KenPom with dreadful defensive efficiency metrics.

It feels like part of Oregon's issue is a lack of identity. In some years under Dana Altman, Oregon won using an elite defense, while others featured dominant offenses. Neither is true this year, and trying to win with an average offense and terrible defense rarely results in an NCAA Tournament bid.

Oregon ranks 93rd in defensive efficiency with a defensive 2-point field goal percentage of 52% and 3-point percentage of 35%. Colorado's Tristan da Silva, an uber-skilled forward, cooked Oregon's defense the other night, so facing Carlson is a cause for concern.

The Ducks play smaller, starting 6-foot-5 Jadrian Tracey next to N'Faly Dante. That won't work against Utah, so expect a steady diet of Kwame Evans Jr. at the four.

Losing Nate Bittle early in the year put a wrench in Altman's plans of deploying a lengthy interior with Dante and the versatility of Bittle. Now, Tracey is asked to play a role he's not used to and Evans isn't ready for the rigors of conference college hoops.

Utah had no answer for Dante in the first meeting, allowing the big man to go for 23 points on 10-of-15 shooting. When Dante is asserting his dominance inside, the rest of the floor opens up for Jackson Shelstad and Jermaine Couisnard to shoot it. Couisnard is down to 34.7% from 3 this year, while Shelstad is around 35% from distance.

Oregon is a totally different team when its guards hit on perimeter jumpers.

Oregon is more consistent on offense, ranking 53rd in offensive efficiency. The Ducks rarely turn the ball over (16% of the time) and shoot 35% from 3 as a team. There's a lot to like about Oregon's offense compared to its weak defense.

My best bet here is for the home team in Eugene to cover the spread.

Some teams just can't win road college basketball games. Utah won one conference road game all year, a 70-69 win over UCLA. Some of the losses were totally uncompetitive, with four of the seven road losses coming by double digits.

I don't see that changing here against the inside-out scoring attack from the Ducks. If Tyler Bilodeau and Pope destroyed the Utes defense the other night, Dante and Shelstad will have an early Easter dinner.

At -3, I absolutely love Oregon. Carlson will cook, but does it even matter if Utah can't defend? It didn't mean anything Thursday when Carlson notched a career-high 40 points against a worse team.

I just don't know how good Utah actually is, and I think the ugly truth is the Utes are not very good.

Pick: Oregon -2.5

Everything you need to bet like a PRO!

Eye-popping betting model edges

Sharp action signals for every slate

Player prop picks bursting with value

GO PRO NOW!