Tulane vs FAU Odds, Pick: Don’t Buy the Owls

Tulane and FAU played an absolutely electric matchup on January 11th in New Orleans. There are very few times in which I'll admit the referees were in the wrong, but they cost the Green Wave an upset victory that night.

This time around, the teams are much further apart in the standings and have different outlooks on the rest of the season.

In early January, Tulane had high expectations and was the pesky American Athletic team no one wanted to face. While still pesky, Tulane's season has taken a turn for the worst as it has only won three games since that date. To me, this is the result of both selfish basketball and poor defense.

Tulane still has one of the most electric offenses in the nation. Only 21 teams in the country play at a faster pace than the Green Wave and they rank inside the top 90 in every shooting or efficiency metric (via Vincerix). The downfall is the defense, or lack thereof. Tulane is loaded with offensive talent, but looks, at time, completely checked out on the defensive side of the court.

I'd compare it to a star-filled NBA team that doesn't get along. However, the upside is massive as one of Tulane's stars can drop 30-plus and take over a game on any given night. Look for the Green Wave to lean on big man Kevin Cross, who has the ability to dribble and score from anywhere, to be the x-factor in this matchup.

Florida Atlantic is on the outside looking in at the American Athletic Conference regular-season title, which was by no means a part of the plan. FAU still has the conference tournament to make its case and is almost certainly a lock for an at-large selection — even if it doesn't win that tournament.

With this being said, a loss against Tulane would really hurt the Owls' case. FAU has been caught "playing with its food" often this season — meaning it lets truly inferior teams hang in the game for far too long, only to comeback and win late. That's a horrible strategy against a Tulane team that is looking for revenge and has the talent to beat anyone in conference.

At this point in the season, the teams with nothing to lose are the most dangerous. That's especially true for a team like Tulane, which has loads of talent and has already taken FAU to the brink this season. Doing that again — and on the road — will be a tough task because FAU is extremely solid and has the guards to run with Tulane's speed.

However, I'm not buying FAU's ability to play a full 40 minutes and wouldn't be shocked if this ends up being much closer than the number suggests. Give me the Green Wave on the road!

Pick: Tulane +14