Purdue vs Indiana Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 138.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -122 | 139 -115o / -105u | -110 |
One of the biggest basketball states in the entire country has two storied collegiate powerhouses, and they're set to meet for the first time on Saturday in Bloomington has No. 1 Purdue visits No. 21 Indiana.
Purdue has passed every test it has faced in the last few weeks and is in the driver's seat for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. In a year where all of the top teams keep losing games and look vulnerable, Purdue is 11-1 in the Big Ten and 6-0 on the road in the league.
Indiana started the year in the top 10 and went through a difficult lull in the middle of the season with injuries and regression. It's back on the upswing once again and now has a prime opportunity to pick off the No. 1 team on home court.
Indiana had won five straight games prior to its midweek setback at Maryland. The Hoosiers have been dominant and nearly perfect at Assembly Hall this season and should be able to match up with Purdue and pick off the Boilermakers in some key areas.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue has looked dominant at various points this season and has certainly looked so in the last month in the Big Ten. But we're certainly at the top of the market rating on this team as the unquestioned and unanimous No. 1 in the country.
Purdue has benefitted from being elite in close games — 6-1 overall — which tends to be more variance than true talent in the long run. The Boilermakers won't be able to dominate inside or dominate the glass in this matchup, like they did against the vulnerable interior defense of Michigan and the undersized Penn State in the last two weeks.
Despite all of the winning, Purdue is just 3-3 against the spread in the last six games. So it's not a matter of the market being unable to catch up to the true quality of the Boilermakers. In fact, the market moved against them a few times in the last handful of games.
The only team in the Big Ten that beat Purdue was Rutgers, which played elite interior defense and was able to slow down easy post access to Zach Edey. He still scored 19 points, but Rutgers made it difficult on him and limited second-chance opportunities. You have to be able to play solid interior defense — which Indiana can absolutely do. The Hoosiers are top 20 nationally in 2-point defense and third in the conference.
The Hoosiers can also compete on the glass and then run in transition offensively.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana loves to push the pace in transition as much as possible and that's the best way to attack this Purdue defense. As good as the Boilermakers' defense has been in the half court, they struggle to defend in transition. They rank well below average in transition defensively in points per possession, per Synergy.
The Hoosiers have also been a considerably better team at home than they've been away from Assembly Hall this year. Indiana beat North Carolina by double digits and completely slowed down that offense. It has also beaten Wisconsin by 18, Ohio State by 16 and Michigan State by 13 in front of the raucous crowd.
There's also more holes in the Purdue defense than a traditional KenPom metric or Bart Torvik rating would suggest. Teams have missed a ton of open jump shots against this Purdue defense. They'll concede plenty of open jumpers, but teams aren't making any against them this year, based on the Synergy data. Purdue's defense is in the top-two percentile in PPP allowed on open jump shots.
Indiana isn't a great shooting team by any stretch, but the offense has posted some impressive efficiency numbers at home this year.
Purdue vs Indiana Betting Pick
There probably isn't a better situational fade spot of this Purdue team all season than on Saturday. It's facing a surging Indiana in a road rivalry game after the Boilermakers just became unanimous No. 1 and have won nine straight league games.
The market opened the Hoosiers as a 1.5-point favorite just about everywhere and although this game should be lined right around a coin flip, the spot is good for the Hoosiers at home. Indiana star Trayce Jackson-Davis should provide some real defensive responsibility for Edey and could potentially get the Purdue big into foul trouble with his post-up skill and quickness against the length of Edey.
Purdue's offense will struggle in every possession he's not on the floor against an elite Indiana interior defense. I'll take Indiana on the money line at -110 or better.
Pick: Indiana ML (-110 or Better) |
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