Colgate vs. Syracuse Odds
| Colgate Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 150 -113o / -108u | +320 |
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 150 -113o / -108u | -420 |
Colgate came to the Carrier Dome last season, attempted 43 3-pointers, scored 100 points and beat Syracuse for the first time since the 1961-62 season.
That seemed like a shocking loss for the Orange at the time, but it ended up being a predictor of future events as Syracuse posted its first-ever losing season under head coach Jim Boeheim.
The Raiders make another trip to Syracuse for their annual game with the Orange on Tuesday night, and a lot of the pieces who starred in that game for Boeheim's team are no longer with the program.
Buddy and Jimmy Boeheim have departed, and Cole Swider also graduated. That's a ton of scoring production missing for Syracuse, and it's not clear that it has the scoring firepower to replace them on the current roster.
Colgate is also dealing with some turnover and losses from its NCAA Tournament team, but the Raiders return the majority of their minutes.
The market is still overvaluing Syracuse, which doesn't look to be much improved at all from last season.
Colgate Raiders
The biggest question mark for Matt Langel's team is how it will replace the production of point guard Nelly Cummings.
But we shouldn't doubt Langel at this point in his career in central New York. The Raiders have easily overcome losses from top scorer Jordan Burns and all-league forward Will Rayman in the past.
You can bank on Colgate shooting a lot of 3s, not turning the ball over and being efficient on offense. It's been a top-100 KenPom offense each of the last four seasons and should be one again this year.
On paper, the Syracuse 2-3 zone will always be a good matchup for an offense like Colgate. The Raiders aren't going to turn the ball over often and let Syracuse run in transition.
Syracuse makes teams pass the ball and assist to create buckets, and the Raiders have a motion offense that relies on ball movement to produce open shots.
Syracuse also conceded more open 3s than almost every Power Five team last season. The defense is designed to let teams shoot, and that introduces a ton of variance for the Raiders here.
Syracuse Orange
Syracuse should be improved defensively this season with the Boeheims and Swider no longer in the rotation. But how much better it will be remains a question at this point.
Syracuse ranked 207th in adjusted defensive efficiency last year, per KenPom, and expecting a snap back to the top 100 might be a bit of a stretch with such a young lineup.
The Orange did get impressive point guard play from true freshman Judah Mintz in their first game of the season against Lehigh. However, the Mountain Hawks are a considerably worse defense than Colgate, and they apply almost no ball pressure.
The Orange's offense is going to run through Mintz, junior guard Joe Girard and center Jesse Edwards. The introduction of Mintz into the program enables Girard — a more natural scorer than point guard — to move off the ball and utilize his sharpshooting abilities.
Colgate's defense also won't apply much ball pressure, but the Orange don't have an offense that will turn the ball over much anyway.
The defensive problems in the opening game were still very real though. Lehigh managed 0.99 points per possession and had plenty of open looks from deep.
Colgate vs. Syracuse Betting Pick
Syracuse has typically dominated this annual matchup because its superior length and athleticism bothers the Colgate shooters. That makes the Raiders unable to get into their offensive sets and get the looks that they want.
Syracuse beat Colgate by 12-plus points even in 2018-20 after the Orange had declined from their early 2010s peak.
A lot has changed since Syracuse's recruiting has dropped off a bit, and the Orange aren't getting the lengthy and elite defensive wings they have in the past.
The defensive efficiency has slipped, and now Langel's program is built to take advantage.
Colgate should have few issues getting into its offense, generating open looks and keeping up with the Orange offensively.
It's a high-variance game when a team shoots as many 3s as Colgate does. But the Raiders are as tall as any low-major team in the country and won't get bullied on the glass.
If they shoot around 40% from 3, they're live to win this game. They scored 100 last year on 41.3% from deep.
I'd bet the Raiders at +7 or better in Syracuse.
Pick: Colgate +8.5 (Play to +7) |
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