Washington vs Oregon Odds, Pick for Thursday

Welcome to one of the final Pac-12 After Dark battles before the conference crumbles. The Washington Huskies make the 280-mile drive to Eugene, Oregon, to face the Oregon Ducks.

Washington put together a nice two-game home stretch, splitting games against Utah and Washington State.

Meanwhile, Oregon dropped a game against UCLA in L.A. over the weekend, which put a damper on its NCAA tournament hopes. If Oregon wins here, it'll keep its tournament hopes alive. A loss, on the other hand, can cause a problem for the Ducks' postseason status.

Keion Brooks Jr. is the engine for Washington's 36th-ranked offensive, according to KenPom. Brooks is coming off a magical week, scoring 28 and 35 points against Utah and Washington State, respectively. While Brooks won't win Pac-12 Player of the Year, he's the conference's most dominant scoring threat.

Offensively, Washington loves getting inside and attacking the rim, shooting 54% from 2-point range. Plus, the Huskies rank 39th in offensive efficiency, led by Brooks and the speedy Sahvir Wheeler.

The super-senior — Wheeler — averages over 15 points and five assists per game and puts plenty of pressure on the rim. He's a driver/playmaker first since he only shoots 26% from 3.

Elsewhere, Washington ranks 11th in defensive efficiency out of the 12 Pac-12 squads during league play. The Huskies regularly struggle defending the 3, allowing a jaw-dropping 39% on triples during league play.

We can't even blame the zone defense anymore. Mike Hopkins scrapped ole' reliable a few seasons back, and man defense isn't helping much either.

It's not just 3-point defensive woes, as teams shoot over 52% from 2-point range on the Huskies. Washington just doesn't play any defense.

We'll quickly learn what Oregon is made of after losing four of its past six games — and the two wins came against Arizona State and USC. Beating arguably the two worst teams in the conference is worth celebrating; you must do it.

While Jackson Shelstad saved the Ducks during non-conference play, he's officially hit the freshman wall. The stud youngster has scored 10 or fewer points in five of the past six games, only scoring more against USC. Shelstad is truly awesome, but he'll need to reengage against a wily veteran in Wheeler.

The Ducks' offense runs through perimeter shooting and in to big man N'Faly Dante. Dana Altman's crew shoots over 37% from 3, led by Shelstad and Jermaine Couisnard (36% from 3).

Before a rough three-game stretch, where Couisnard went 3-of-18 from 3, he shot over 40% from downtown. The Ducks need more from the veteran guard, who's turned a real corner as a shooter in his final college season.

Moreover, my biggest concern for Oregon is on the defensive end, particularly defending Brooks. I don't love the matchup for undersized four Jadrian Tracey against Brooks, who has a four-inch height advantage.

Brooks loves sizing up smaller defenders and shooting mid-range shots over top. That'll be the bread and butter for Washington, unless Oregon tries some different defensive looks on Brooks.

Oregon has resorted to playing Tracey at the four since Kwame Evans Jr. isn't a good defender and Nate Bittle got hurt again. There isn't a better option, so the Ducks must adjust in other areas.

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I see these teams a lot closer than the number indicates.

Since it's a road game, Washington is a comfortable play down to five points. Oregon really doesn't blow teams out, and Washington typically plays competitive games.

I could see a lot of points, and Brooks is clearly the best player on the floor. The Huskies have a perfect attack for Oregon's defense and vice versa.

Expect a down-to-the-wire showdown.

Pick: Washington +5.5 (Play to +5)