While mid-to-low major conference tournaments continue on Wednesday, we have some massive college basketball regular-season matchups, including Tennessee vs. South Carolina and Marquette vs. UConn.
With that in mind, here's college basketball best bets and odds, including our staff's top regular season picks for Wednesday, March 6.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Houston vs. UCF
By John Feltman
The last time these two teams faced off the Knights were suffocated all game by the Cougars’ defense. The Knights accumulated a season-low 42 points, and their season has fallen by the wayside since.
The Knights' only shot at punching a ticket into the Big Dance is if they win the Big 12 tournament next week.
Despite three seniors in the starting lineup, I don’t think they get a boost from Senior Night in this spot.
If anything, their tenacity on the defensive side of the ball will be juiced up, and it’s a unit that already ranks 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Also, the Knights are last in the Big 12 in the following offensive categories:
- Offensive Efficiency
- 3-point percentage
- 2-point percentage
That’s also not including their ranking of 11th in turnover rate out of 14 teams.
The Cougars are coming off a lazy defensive effort, which is a rarity for Kelvin Sampson's squad. The Coogs are the best defensive team in the country and rank inside the top five in a lot of categories.
Their offense is 13th in Adjusted Efficiency, but with Kansas on deck, this is a lookahead situational spot.
Both of these offenses run at a snail's pace, and instead of targeting the Knights team total under, I’m more comfortable with targeting the game over.
The Coogs have no reason to run up the score on the road since there are bigger goals within reach – plus, health is a priority. I see them slamming on the brakes late in the second half if they’re up by double digits.
There’s no reason to lay points with the Cougars here, so I feel very comfortable with the under.
Pick: Under 130.5 (Play to 128)
Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas
I like backing the under in this game featuring the Florida Atlantic Owls and North Texas Mean Green.
North Texas features the best defense in the AAC (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 99.4) and will be called upon to slow down the top-ranked offense of Florida Atlantic, which has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 104.6.
The Mean Green have been tough at home this season and should be well positioned to stymie the Owls from the field. They rank second in the AAC in effective field goal defense and 29th in the nation, holding opposing teams to 46.9% from the field.
Another reason for my edge on the under is that North Texas and Florida Atlantic rank 128th and 122nd in 3-point rate, respectively. Now, both teams shoot well from beyond the arc, but the rate is a mitigating factor and plays to the under.
Lastly, neither team plays at a high tempo, but North Texas sticks out here, ranking second-to-last in the nation (361st) in Adjusted Tempo. The combination of slow tempo and struggles from the field for North Texas should lead to a lower-scoring affair.
My model is projecting the total for this game at 132.5 points, and I think this presents good value based on the current market total of 136.5.
I recommend taking the under and playing this at 134 or higher.
Pick: Under 136.5 (Play to 134)
BYU vs. Iowa State
By Brett Pund
When handicapping a BYU game, it all comes down to how each team performs from beyond the arc, and I think multiple metrics point to the Cougars having success here.
So, my best bet is for the visitors to cover the spread of +6.5, which I would bet down to +5.5.
On the season, only North Florida (46.3%) scores a higher percentage of its points from 3-pointers than BYU (41.1%). While Iowa State is elite defensively, this is a team that can give up outside shots.
The Cyclones rank 340th nationally in percentage of points given up on 3-pointers. This is the lowest ranking in the Big 12, with the next closest squads being Kansas and West Virginia.
BYU is 3-0 against those programs.
Yes, Iowa State has been dominant at home. However, the Cyclones have used hot starts to build a lead at halftime, only to hold onto them in the second half. The Cougars have also been great in the opening half and come into this matchup ranked 13th in average first-half margin.
On the road in conference play, BYU has either been winning or tied going into halftime in five of its eight games.
The Cougars made 13 3-pointers in the first meeting, and if they're close to that number again, I love their chances of covering this spread.
