College Basketball Best Bets for Thursday

Multiple mid-to-low major conference tournaments tip off today, including the WCC and Missouri Valley Conference.

But there's still value to be had with regular season college basketball games.

So, here's college basketball best bets and odds, including our staff's six regular season picks for Thursday, March 7.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By John Feltman

Before diving in, I would advise everyone to wait to bet the Badgers until tip-off since I don’t expect the line to climb any higher. Due to their recent poor play, I have a feeling a lot of public and sharp money will come in on Rutgers that may cause the line to drop a tad.

With that said, it’s due or die for the Badgers to get their season back on track. Luckily for them, they had a terrific start to the season that gave them a big enough cushion to lock up an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

It’s also Senior Night at the Kohl Center, notoriously a tough environment to play in.

It’s been a rough season in Piscataway for the Scarlet Knights. Their offensive ineptitude has been plagued across their program all season long.

Out of 14 Big Ten teams, here's where they rank in prominent offensive categories:

• 14th in offensive efficiency
• 14th in effective field goal percentage
• 13th in free-throw percentage
• 14th in 2-point percentage
• 13th in 3-point percentage

The Badgers’ defense concerns me, but they’re due for positive 3-point variance on that end of the floor. Besides, the offensive metrics from the Scarlet Knights are embarrassingly bad.

The Scarlet Knights are an elite defensive team, but that won’t be enough to hang with the Badgers. The Badgers are a good offensive team that capitalizes at the free-throw line, which is key against a Scarlet Knights defense that fouls often.

Nobody is going to want to lay it with the Badgers on Thursday, but it’s a prime get-right spot on Senior Night that I don’t want to pass up.

Pick: Wisconsin -9.5 (Play to -10)

By D.J. James

The Wisconsin Badgers fell to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights the last time these two teams played one another. Now this game will take place in Madison.

The Badgers should be able to put Rutgers away. Rutgers is 20-9 on unders this season, while Wisconsin is 18-11 on overs.

That said, the Badgers are an incredibly slow-paced team. They rank 323rd in Adjusted Tempo, averaging 19.3 seconds per possession. Their issue offensively has been 3-point shooting, as they rank 176th at 34%.

However, the bulk of the time, Wisconsin wants to get the ball in the paint, where it’s more efficient. The Scarlet Knights rank in the top 45 in points per possession at the rim. Wisconsin also defaults to the post-up, where Clifford Omoruyi can defend. The Scarlet Knights can defend the arc solidly too.

On the other side of the ball, Rutgers has virtually nothing going for itself on offense. The Scarlet Knights are shooting under 29% from 3 and under 45% from 2. They also like to keep the ball on the interior.

Wisconsin does have plenty of sore spots defensively, but Rutgers may not have the ability to exploit those issues.

Wisconsin can rebound, but most of this is done on the defensive end. Yes, the Badgers should own the rebounding differential, but this game should still remain in the half-court.

Take the under this time around, and play it to 131.5.

Pick: Under 131.5 

By Doug Ziefel

The Washington State Cougars have put together a tremendous season. They've only lost two games since the beginning of 2024. Their run through the conference has been unprecedented, and it includes two victories over the highly-ranked Arizona Wildcats.

However, the Cougars' one slip-up on their run may have cost them a Pac-12 title. While that may be disappointing, we should expect them to finish the regular season strong tonight.

On Thursday, they host their in-state rivals, the Washington Huskies. These two teams met about a month ago and played a game for the ages, with the Cougars squeezing out a three-point victory in double overtime.

This time around, it'll be a very different story.

In addition to the Cougars' motivation, they also hold plenty of edges on the court. They vastly outrank the Huskies on both ends in turnover and rebounding rate. Washington State's control of both of these key areas will only accentuate its edges on the offensive end of the floor.

So, back the Cougars to cover tonight.

Pick: Washington State -6.5 (Play to -7.5)

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By Scott Schaeffer

Arizona was lucky to survive the first matchup between these two teams in Tucson back in January. The Bruins surprisingly led by nine at halftime and by 11 with only 10 minutes remaining before Arizona stormed back to win.

The Wildcats hold a slim one game lead over Washington State in the Pac-12 standings in the conference’s final year.

Having been swept by the Cougars during the regular season, Arizona will need to maintain its focus by winning its final two regular season games to clinch the Pac-12 title and earn the No. 1 seed in next week’s conference tournament.

23% was the uncharacteristic clip Arizona managed to shoot from 3-point range in that first matchup with UCLA. Meanwhile, the Bruins outpaced the Cats by shooting 35% from deep.

Arizona profiles as the much better shooting team, and it should be able to maintain its advantage on the glass and earn opportunities at the free-throw stripe with a much more physical and experienced frontcourt.

After several impressive victories, Tennessee is rapidly ascending towards a No. 1 NCAA tournament seed in place of Arizona. This provides even more motivation for the Wildcats.

As Mick Cronin is seemingly thirsting for this turbulent season to end, I’m trusting the Wildcats to play a much more inspired brand of basketball and earn a double-digit victory.

Pick: Arizona -8.5 (Play to -9.5)

By Patrick Strollo

As the regular season begins to wind down, the Arizona State Sun Devils will make one last road trip to the City of Angels for a series of games.

Earlier in the season when Arizona State hosted USC, it was able to get the outright win, 82-67. The Bobby Hurley-led Sun Devils capitalized on their tempo and pressure defense, scoring 27 fast break points en route to the victory as a 4.5-point favorite.

Now the books have flipped substantially, as Arizona State is pinned as a 9.5-point underdog. I think this presents excellent value for bettors, as the Sun Devils look to regroup on eight days of rest.

There's still plenty to be sorted out in the closely-contested Pac-12 as it relates to seeding for the upcoming conference tournament, and I believe that this rested Arizona State team is catching too many points in what should be a motivating road contest.

In a similar fashion to the first meeting between the two schools, Arizona State will look to its defense to slow down the USC offense. The Trojans rank 52nd in the nation and fifth in the Pac-12 in defensive efficiency, thanks to a havoc-inducing frontcourt and excellent 3-point defense.

I don't think there's any reason that Arizona State shouldn’t be able to keep this game close. The USC offense is the eighth-most efficient unit in the Pac-12, and as long as the Sun Devils can win the battle on the defensive boards, they should be able to keep this game close down the stretch.

USC hasn’t been great at home this year either, going 7-6 (53.8%) at the Galen Center. In their home contests, the Trojans are 6-7 (46.2%) against the spread.

Currently markets would lead you to believe that these two schools are poles apart; however, I think that the parity is much closer than it appears in the betting markets. Coming into this game, KenPom has USC and Arizona State ranked as the 97th and 116th ranked programs, respectively.

My model has the fair value of the spread for this game at 6.5 points, and as a result, I recommend taking the 9.5 points in favor of the underappreciated Sun Devils.

While the spread is my formal recommendation, I'm also going to dabble with the moneyline here, as well. At +375, I think there's a lot of value for bettors that are comfortable with higher beta, especially against a team the Sun Devils have previously beaten.

Pick: Arizona State +9.5 (Play to +7.5)

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By Shane McNichol

This looks like a seemingly meaningless game between two teams with no motivation late in the season. Both are far outside the bubble, with little chance at a miracle in the Pac-12 tournament.

I’d argue that Cal has a little more life in it at this point. The Bears have stolen a few decent late-season wins, beating Oregon at home and Washington on the road in recent weeks.

They come into this game having just gotten swept on the Pac-12’s altitude-affected road trip, at Utah and Colorado. In those games, Cal shot just 16-of-60 from deep, leaving it due for a bounce back.

Stanford, meanwhile, hasn’t won a game since February 10. The Cardinal haven’t just lost six straight games, but lost all six by double figures. If this were an NBA team, we’d consider them halfway to Cancun. Instead, I’d imagine half the roster already has dreams of a new home via the transfer portal.

That likely includes head coach Jerod Haase, now having gone seven seasons at Stanford without sniffing the NCAA tournament.

His counterpart on the other sideline is rising star Mark Madsen (yes, the backup big man/bad dancer from the Shaq and Kobe Lakers dynasty). He was an All-American in his playing days at Stanford, but he took the job at arch-rival Cal and has done well to keep the Bears afloat in year one.

I would imagine he’d love to send his alma mater home with a loss, reminding them once again that they missed the chance to hire him. Cal won the first meeting, and I like it to complete the sweep.

Pick: Cal +4.5 (Play to +3.5)