NCAAB Best Bets: Tuesday Evening Conference Tournament Games

Welcome to Champ Week! Multiple power-conference league tournaments start today — including the ACC and Big 12 — and we're ready to find the best betting value on the board in college basketball.

So, here's college basketball best bets and odds, including five evening conference tournament picks for Tuesday, March 12.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Tanner McGrath

Bryant shot way over its head in its quarterfinal win over Maine.

Rafael Pinzon started the game 6-for-6 from 3 en route to 35 points, and the Bulldogs are impossible to stop once they get going like that.

Usually, we could easily project Bryant for some game-to-game regression.

But I’m looking at this matchup in a different light.

UMass Lowell struggled against UMBC on Saturday, with Retriever guards Dion Brown and Marcus Banks showcasing a dribble and shot creation masterclass en route to 42 combined points.

Still, the River Hawks took full advantage of UMBC’s porous interior defense.

Head coach Pat Duquette tweaked his flex-motion offense this year following big man Kareem Abdoul-Coulibaly's injury. The team relentlessly attacks the rim with two frontcourt matchup problems in Quinton Mincey and Cam Morris III. They either hit a layup, draw a foul or grab the offensive rebound.

In that quarterfinal matchup, the Hawks scored 42 paint points, took 31 free throws and snagged 16 offensive rebounds.

And the game still went to overtime.

The job won’t be as easy on Tuesday.

First-year head coach Phil Martelli Jr. shifted Bryant’s defensive identity after his predecessor resigned, abandoning Jared Grasso’s matchup zone in favor of an aggressive ball screen and rim-denial defense. The Bulldogs attack and leverage their wing athleticism and talent to swarm the paint.

As a result, Bryant leads the AmEast in block rate (15%), ranks second in 2-point shooting allowed (46%) and third in paint points per game allowed (31). The Bulldogs are really tough in the paint and at the rim.

It’s a tough matchup for the rim-reliant River Hawks, and much tougher than the one they just faced.

So, how did Lowell sweep Bryant this year?

Because across two head-to-head matchups, the River Hawks shot 18-for-39 (46%) from 3 while the Bulldogs shot 7-for-38 (18%).

But Bryant outplayed Lowell in terms of interior offense, out-scoring the Hawks 88-to-72 in the paint across two matchups while making seven more 2-point shots.

The Bulldogs feature a dominant rim defense that would’ve kept up with Lowell with typical perimeter shooting splits.

I’m betting that two-way regression hits hard in this semifinal matchup.

Earl Timberlake – arguably Bryant’s best player – is likely out for the remainder of the year with a hand injury, and that’s a huge issue.

However, Daniel Rivera was a monster in the quarterfinal win over the Black Bears, recording two blocks, a steal, four assists and 15 rebounds. He transformed into the interior glue guy that Timberlake has been all year.

And I actually think Bryant could space the floor better with the Timberlake minutes going to sharpshooters like Pinzon, Connor Withers and Doug Edert.

On the year, 48% of the Bulldogs’ catch-and-shoot opportunities came unguarded, but nine of their 14 (64%) came open in the quarterfinal win over Maine’s phenomenal perimeter defense.

Spacing the floor and cashing in triples is key against Lowell’s similarly excellent perimeter defense, which often uses drop-coverage elements to deny perimeter shots. The River Hawks were arguably the league’s best 3-point defense this year.

But their 3-point denial regressed down the stretch, as they ranked only fourth in the AmEast in Open 3 Rate Allowed. Bryant is begging for positive shooting regression in this head-to-head matchup with a lineup more suited toward perimeter jumpers.

I like the Bulldogs to buck the trends on Tuesday and give the Hawks a sweat. Our Action PRO Model projects them as only 2.5-point road ‘dogs at Costello Athletic Center.

I’ll take that math.

Pick: Bryant +6.5 (Play to +5)

By Jim Root

McNeese, the heavy favorite in the Southland, finally tips off on Tuesday after getting a bye into the semifinals.

Lamar, though, is a worthy foe.

On Feb. 26, the Cardinals took McNeese to the absolute limit, leading by two with 45 seconds left. McNeese ultimately prevailed on a late triple by Cowboy center Antavion Collum, but the upset potential was clear.

The Cardinals can bring a similar game plan to this postseason clash.

Crucially, they played McNeese to a draw on the glass, and their compact defensive scheme took away easy rim opportunities. The heavily favored Cowboys certainly can shoot — they rank ninth nationally in 3-point percentage — but they don’t really want to do so, ranking 277th in 3-point attempt rate, per KenPom.

Though this game is in Lake Charles at McNeese’s home arena, home-court advantage is far less of an issue. Lamar played here last night, so the Cardinals are comfortable with the venue, and no travel is involved.

Fatigue is a slight concern given the back-to-back for Lamar. However, McNeese prefers to play in the half-court, lessening the potential impact of Lamar’s second game in as many days.

So long as McNeese doesn’t get scalding hot from beyond the arc, Lamar has the necessary pieces and game plan to hang around.

Pick: Lamar +12.5 (Play to +11)

By Mike McNamara

Yes, I’m aware that Boston College swept Miami in the regular season, including a 10-point victory in Coral Gables last week.

I also acknowledge the fact that Miami has been in total free fall, dropping its last nine conference games.

I don’t care. The Canes are favored here for a reason, and that’s due to the vast amount of postseason experience this roster has.

That experience only gets bolstered if veteran guard Nijel Pack can play in this one after missing a lot of games recently due to injury.

My gut tells me Pack suits up, and I also think Miami will treat this tournament very seriously after how disappointing of a year it’s been.

The Canes still have far more overall talent than Boston College, and that talent should be motivated to try to go on a run and salvage a disastrous February and early March.

Give me Miami as a short favorite to come out making shots and playing hard, ultimately beating BC and covering the number.

Pick: Miami -2 (Play to -3)

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By Matt Cox

A month ago, betting the over in a game between these two teams would’ve felt like a root canal. Both Sacramento State and Montana State were in a rut, hampered by offenses stuck in the mud.

Now, the Hornets and Bobcats are the hottest teams in the league, pinned against each other in the semifinals of the Big Sky tournament.

Conventional wisdom is that the higher-leverage games tend to slow down, but this matchup features two teams looking to keep the pedal to the metal — well, relatively.

Both are far from fast-lane offenses, but they're benefitting from more opportunistic shot selection early in the shot clock.

For Montana State, the two-pronged point guard attack of Eddie Turner III — who finally looks healthy after a slow start to the season — and Robert Ford III — a menace on the ball — has shifted Montana State’s offense into overdrive.

John Olmsted has also come out of nowhere, emerging as a furious rim-runner and low-post threat, while Tyler Patterson and Brian Goracke continue to light nets on fire from downtown.

Sacramento State’s molasses-like offense has been injected with a shot of life in the form of Akol Mawein, who was banged up for most of the season. He’s been dominant in Duncan Powell’s stead, and the Hornets' offense is now firing on all cylinders.

Perhaps Montana State’s nuclear shot-making last night was a mirage, but the combined offensive tailwinds warrant an over wager in this one.

Pick: Over 133.5 (Play to 136)

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By Ky McKeon

Expect a slow-paced rock fight tonight in the closing game of the MAAC tournament’s opening round.

Siena is one of the four worst offensive teams in the country and has been even worse without star Sean Durugordon and starting point guard Zek Tekin on the floor.

Both are questionable to play tonight. If both are out — especially Durugordon — scoring will come at a premium. And even if both play, scoring for Siena is no guarantee.

Siena head coach Carm Maciariello is no fool and knows his team lacks talent. Therefore, he tries to milk the clock for everything it's worth on the offensive end in order to limit possessions.

Niagara is happy to oblige this style of play. The Purple Eagles play a half-court style and don’t mind a good old-fashioned walk-a-thon.

The first game between these two squads was inexplicably up-tempo and efficient. Durugordon going for 36 on 16-for-16 from the free-throw line helped.

But the second game is more like what we'll see tonight. That game had just 61 possessions and 125 total points. Niagara got what it wanted in the paint — as it will tonight — but Siena struggled to score. The pace of the game prevented scoring from getting out of control.

Expect a slow burn in the MAAC tonight as the season likely (mercifully) closes on Siena.

Pick: Under 131.5 (Play to 131)