Tuesday’s NCAAB Best Bets

After a light college basketball slate on Monday, we're back with a loaded schedule for Tuesday, including BYU vs. Kansas, the No. 1 team in the country hosting Cincinnati and No. 16 Kentucky traveling to Humphrey Coliseum.

Dive in below for college basketball best bets and our staff's five picks, including Colorado State vs. Nevada on Tuesday, Feb. 27.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By John Feltman

Let's face it, folks. The Bearcats’ season is practically over, and they definitely showed signs of a team that's quit during their 18-point loss to TCU on Feb. 24.

I realize Cincinnati’s offense is due for a bit of a bounce back after struggling against TCU, but that’s a more reasonable task against a different opponent.

Cincy scored 62 points in the first matchup against Houston, and it’s now on the road.

It also sits in the bottom half of the country in the following offensive categories:

• Effective Field-Goal Percentage
• Turnover Percentage
• 3-Point Percentage
• Free-Throw Percentage

Meanwhile, the Cougars have their eyes on a Big 12 regular-season title. There’s nothing in the metrics that suggests the Bearcats are going to have offensive success throughout the game.

The Cougars lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and rank top-three in the following defensive categories:

• Effective Field-Goal Percentage
• 2-Point Percentage
• Block Percentage
• Steal Percentage

Despite the Cougars being overaggressive at times on defense, the Bearcats won't capitalize due to their horrific free-throw shooting.

This should be a slow-paced rock fight, and I have the most faith in Houston’s defense shutting down Cincinnati.

Pick: Cincinnati Team Total Under 59.5

By Matt Gannon

Houston is coming off a very dramatic road win over in-state rival Baylor, so this sounds like a letdown spot if you ask me. That game had all the emotions over the last few minutes, including blown leads, missed free throws, an overturned buzzer-beater and overtime.

I’m not going to fade Kelvin Sampson and this veteran bunch at home, though, as they’re an absolute wagon.

Instead of fading Houston, I’ll take the under here.

Both of these teams pride themselves on defense. Houston ranks inside the top 25 in every important defensive metric, while Cincy ranks top-60 in two metrics.

Wes Miller made a name for himself at UNC Greensboro with defense, and that's transitioned to the Big 12.

I believe there are multiple paths to an under here. Clearly, these teams play great defense, and we could see a low-scoring game for that reason alone. Outside of that, Houston could also struggle out of the gates in this letdown spot.

Either way, the under is in play for me.

Pick: Under 132.5

By D.J. James

The BYU Cougars will face the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence for a huge clash between two top teams in the Big 12.

The Cougars shoot 3s with the best of them. In fact, they rank in the top five in 3-point attempt rate, hitting about 35% as a unit with multiple threats from outside.

This is one of Kansas’ sore spots on defense, as the Jayhawks rank 294th in the NCAA in 3-point attempt rate and are allowing opponents to drain at least 33% of shots from downtown.

Additionally, BYU is far better on the glass than the Jayhawks. Kansas is particularly weak offensively, and BYU ranks in the top 40 in offensive and defensive rebounding. This should lead to more second chances and putback opportunities for the Cougars.

Kansas will be at home and will get to the free-throw line more often than the Cougars will. The Jayhawks should have a big edge at the line, as BYU rarely draws fouls.

However, Kansas also ranks 328th in offensive 3-point attempt rate. BYU should be fine yielding outside shots while owning the edge in 3-point attempts overall. Ultimately, the Cougars will be trading 3s for 2s.

One issue for BYU will be interior defense, as the Jayhawks like to get the ball inside to Hunter Dickinson and company. BYU allows opponents to shoot close to 50% from 2-point range, so even though the Cougars and Jayhawks both rank in the top 20 in 2-point field goals, Kansas might hold an advantage here.

Given that Kansas is favored a bit too much by the market, there’s value on BYU to +5.

Pick: BYU +7 (Play to +5)

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By Mike McNamara

This screams “hangover spot” for Wake coming off an emotional win over Duke on Saturday. Now, it heads to South Bend to take on a Notre Dame team that’s quietly playing really hard.

The Irish lack talent in their first year under Micah Shrewsberry, but they've actually been very competitive in ACC play and have covered 11 of their 16 conference games to this point.

Notre Dame’s Kebba Njie and Tae Davis have the size to go toe-to-toe with Efton Reid III and Andrew Carr in Wake’s frontcourt.

Additionally, the coach's kid — Braeden Shrewsberry — has been on fire in his last couple of games, going for 13-of-20 from 3 in recent outings against Louisville and Syracuse.

Wake should eventually pull this one out given its talent advantages, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if ND takes a lead into halftime.

Back the Irish to keep this one tight throughout and cover the number as a home underdog.

Pick: Notre Dame +6.5 (Play to +5.5)

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By Patrick Strollo

The Nevada Wolf Pack will look to win their fourth straight as they make the trip to Fort Collins to face the Colorado State Rams.

When these two programs met in late January, Nevada picked up the win on its home court with a 77-64 victory.

I don’t think an outright victory is the high expected value play in this game, but I’m all over the 7.5 points the Pack are catching.

Statistically, Colorado State is the better overall team, with an AdjEM of 17.87. Nevada, meanwhile, owns a mark of 15.90.

After adjusting for home-court advantage and perhaps some extra grit as Colorado State looks to even the season series, I still think 7.5 points is still too many.

Two areas in this matchup stick out to me and should be the keys to Nevada covering the spread.

First, the Wolf Pack need to win the battle on the defensive glass. Colorado State is one of the smaller teams in the Mountain West, and this is reflected in its offensive rebounding rate of 23.1%, which ranks 337th in the nation.

Secondly, Nevada excels at getting to the free-throw line with an impressive 45.1% free-throw rate, which ranks sixth nationally. I don’t think this necessarily will make or break the outcome, but I do expect its 71.2% rate to make a difference against the spread.

My model projects the fair value for this game at 3.0 points, which is slightly more aggressive than our Action Network PRO Projections, which sit at 4.5 points.

Needless to say, both models project an advantage in favor of the visiting Wolf Pack, so I like taking the points at 5.5 or higher.

Lastly, I do think there’s value on the moneyline, but that’s not my highest conviction. However, at +275, I think it’s worth a dusting, and I’d play it down to +250.

Pick: Nevada +7.5 (Play to +5.5)