Feast Week is coming to a close, but that doesn't mean there isn't college basketball betting value on the board.
In fact, our staff has college basketball best bets and two picks for Saturday, including Vermont vs. Bradley on November 25.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cal vs. San Diego State
By D.J. James
San Diego State usually runs at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. This season, it ranks 137th in Adjusted Tempo, averaging 17.1 seconds per possession on offense and 16.5 seconds per possession on defense.
As the season progresses, this pace will regress back to the mean, as the Aztecs ranked 262nd in Adjusted Tempo last year, 268th in 2021-2022 and 307th in 2020-2021.
This game will probably show more of what SDSU fans are used to, as the Golden Bears are a slow team, despite their defensive mishaps. Cal ranks 225th in Adjusted Tempo this season, averaging 17.2 seconds per possession offensively and 18.1 seconds per possession defensively.
The issue in this game that could speed up the pace is turnovers — Cal ranks 297th in offensive turnover rate. That said, SDSU is 95th in defensive turnover rate. The Aztecs also rank 110th in transition points per possession, per Shot Quality.
Another hindrance to the under could be fouling, as the Aztecs rank 29th in free-throw attempt rate, while Cal ranks 48th on offense. Defensively, both teams tend to foul pretty often, ranking below 100th in defensive free-throw attempt rate.
Cal shoots a ton of 3s and hasn’t manufactured as much offense on the interior. SDSU defends the 3 relatively well, so this should help fellow under-backers.
Finally, Cal has a few key players who are questionable, but regardless, this should not play as much into the pace of this game.
Take the under from 145, and play it to 143.
Pick: Under 143.5 (Play to 143)
Vermont vs. Bradley
If you’re not excited for Vermont-Bradley on Saturday, you don’t love mid-major basketball.
This is mid-major heaven.
Brian Wardle has flipped his Bradley Braves from a Missouri Valley laughingstock to a Missouri Valley powerhouse. The Braves went 5-27 (3-15) in his inaugural season (2016), but they went 25-10 (16-4) last year, earning the MVC regular-season title.
Meanwhile, John Becker’s Catamounts have won seven straight America East regular-season titles and five of the past seven conference tournament titles. The Cats are a dynasty in upper New England.
You’re going to be tempted to bet Bradley here. After all, the Braves are 5-0 with wins over three KenPom top-100 teams. They’ve snuck up to 77th in KenPom’s rankings and look like the team to beat in the Valley.
But the Braves are super overvalued entering this home tilt with UVM.
For starters, two of the Braves’ five wins this season have come in overtime, so they easily could be 3-2.
Also, three of Bradley’s five wins have come by four points or less, so they easily could be 2-3.
Also, Bradley’s five opponents shot a combined 21.6% from deep. That’s the lowest mark nationally, and it’s a wildly unsustainable one.
ShotQuality projects the Braves should be 1-4 based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed. That’s a fancy way of saying if a couple of extra 3s fell against them, the Braves easily could be 1-4.
If anyone is primed to force some negative shooting regression upon Bradley, it’s Vermont.
Vermont’s calling card is a five-out motion offense with elite spacing. The Cats play slow and hunt open shots. Every 3 is calculated, and everyone on the floor can make them. All the guards can shoot.
Big man Matt Veretto is an elite shooter at the four (41.4% last year). Even defense-first center Ileri Ayo-Faleye has popped out this year (1-for-3), so opponents must somewhat respect him. The Cats rank 21st nationally in 3-point rate (47.5%), while hitting them at a 35% clip.
I also just like how Vermont is playing early in the season. Transfer guards Shamir Bogues (Tarleton State) and TJ Long (Fairfield) have been outstanding. Top dog Aaron Deloney hasn’t even been playing well yet (10 PPG on 46% from the floor), yet the Cats ripped off wins against Charleston and Saint Louis in the Myrtle Beach Invitational.
Vermont could’ve won the event if a few more 3s fell, as it shot only 8-for-28 from deep in the championship loss to Liberty. ShotQuality graded it as an analytical win for UVM.
Incoming positive shooting regression for Vermont — plus incoming negative shooting regression for Bradley — equals a large wager placed on the Cats by yours truly.
Meanwhile, I’m unsure how well Bradley is playing right now, outside of pure 3-point defensive luck.
Wardle’s best teams are known for elite interior defense and rebounding. So far, these Braves rank 281st nationally in defensive rebounding rate, while allowing 33 paint points per game (40th percentile). Bradley’s opponents are taking 29 shots per game at the rim, the most nationally.
The Braves lost do-it-all center Rienk Mast in the offseason, and they could be missing his presence on the interior.
A big part of the Catamounts' offense is back-door cutting, finding open space behind the defenders being dragged out so far on the perimeter by Vermont’s shooters. Well, Bradley ranks 280th nationally in cutting PPP allowed (1.3) in the young season.
Ultimately, I think the Braves are overvalued, and the Cats are due for a bounce-back performance after dropping that championship game to Liberty. Plus, it’s a solid schematic matchup for Vermont.
So, I’ll happily grab the points in a game that should be closer to a coin flip – the ShotQualityBets Model projects Vermont as a three-point road ‘dog at Bradley.
Pick: Vermont +5.5 (Play to +5)
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