Arizona vs Cal Odds, Pick
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +775 |
Let's head out west to Haas Pavillion in Berkeley, California as the California Golden Bears get set to host the Arizona Wildcats.
On paper, this should be an excellent bounce-back opportunity for Arizona, who is coming off a tough double-overtime loss to the red-hot Florida Atlantic Owls. However, don't be fooled by Cal's 4-7 record as the Golden Bears have shown that they're capable of getting hot from deep.
Arizona Wildcats
There's no questioning Arizona's talent. Despite falling short in a couple of tough matchups against Purdue and FAU, Arizona has proved that it belongs in the conversation as one of the nation's best teams.
I can't stand the guy from his time at North Carolina, but it was extremely entertaining to watch guard Caleb Love go blow-for-blow with FAU's Johnell Davis. Love has been extremely impressive to start the season and is a big reason why Arizona is off to such a strong start.
This is a top-six team in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. Arizona is also an excellent rebounding team, which is where they'll have a huge edge in this matchup.
The Wildcats will be about even in the height department in this game, but that won't stop them from boxing out the Golden Bears all evening long. I also like that they are a much deeper team, which means they will have the fresher legs.
I bet the backcourt is licking their chops for this contest because Cal is 324th in opponent 3-point percentage. Arizona should score at will from inside and/or outside of the arc.
I love the defensive tenacity that Arizona brings to the table, but the Wildcats have been susceptible to giving up some 3s. They're about in the middle of the pack in opponent 3-point percentage and will be put to the test against a Cal team that is trigger-happy from 3.
I don't see a world where the Wildcats don't bounce back in this spot. The question will be if Cal has the chops to stay within the number.
Cal Golden Bears
The Golden Bears are the true definition of a high-variance offense. This group attempts a ton of 3, but doesn't play defense particularly well.
Considering they're shooting a decent 35% from deep, I'd expect them to find some success against Arizona's vulnerable perimeter defense.
Senior guard Jalen Cone may only be 5'11, but he isn't afraid to let it rip from deep. He's already attempted 115 shots from 3 this season, and he's shooting 36% in that area.
Cal's ability to box out is going to be a massive problem in this game as I expect the Wildcats to have their way on the glass. As a result, I have a feeling Cal won't get many second-chance opportunities.
Additionally, Cal is 245th in turnovers, a nightmare against Arizona's defense.
I think Cal's offense is talented enough to find some leaks in the Wildcats' defense. However, I have zero faith in Cal's defense and think this could quickly turn into an ugly affair.
Arizona vs. Cal
Betting Pick & Prediction
Instead of laying a large number with the Wildcats, I'm going to bank on Cal's offense and target the over. I think the Golden Bears' high-variance offensive philosophy approach should work in our favor as it could either result in a ton of 3s, or a lot of easy transition buckets for Arizona.
After six days off, Tommy Lloyd's group will be hungry to bounce back from that tough loss against FAU. It's scary taking an over with Arizona's elite defense involved, but I think the Wildcats' leaky perimeter defense can result in a lot of open looks from 3 for Cal.
I have a ton of faith in the Wildcats to bounce back, but I have a weird feeling about a Cal backdoor cover. Let's avoid that nightmare scenario and take the over instead.
Pick: Over 155.5 (Play to 156)
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