For much of the season, the ACC has been the subject of heavy criticism from the national media for having a down year once again.
I believe the conference is better than what the general public believes, as multiple teams have started to hit their stride in February and March.
That being said, outside of dominant play from North Carolina and Duke, there's no question the league has underperformed, with Clemson being the only other team comfortably in the tournament field.
Miami and Virginia Tech have had very poor seasons relative to expectations, and Louisville has once again been a disaster under Kenny Payne.
But guess what? It’s a clean slate now.
Regular-season basketball has come and gone, and the postseason has arrived. Carolina and Duke are the heavy favorites, but if those two were to get upset, this tournament would become wide open with bid-stealers in play.
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ACC Tournament Odds & Bracket
Odds via DraftKings as of Monday, March 11.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| UNC | +150 |
| Duke | +160 |
| Clemson | +850 |
| Wake Forest | +900 |
| Pitt | +1200 |
| Virginia | +1900 |
| Virginia Tech | +3000 |
| Syracuse | +6500 |
| NC State | +10000 |
| Florida State | +10000 |
| Miami | +15000 |
| Notre Dame | +30000 |
| Boston College | +30000 |
| Louisville | +50000 |
| Georgia Tech | +50000 |
The 2024 ACC Tournament Bracket. pic.twitter.com/W7uZdjEZbE
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 10, 2024
The Format
With 15 teams competing this week in Greensboro, there’s a pretty unique format for the tournament. Here are the basics:
- Five total rounds starting on Tuesday and ending with the title game Saturday night
- Four teams with double-byes into the quarterfinals (North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Pitt)
- Five teams with single byes into the second round (Wake Forest, Clemson, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Florida State)
- Three first-round matchups set (NC State vs. Louisville, Boston College vs. Miami, Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech)
ACC Tournament First-Round Matchups
I’ll start off by giving some quick betting thoughts on each of the three known first-round matchups.
NC State vs. Louisville
The Pack should roll here.
Louisville has been a disaster all year, and NC State knows a deep run is its only chance of going dancing. This will probably too big of a spread to lay the points, but I expect NCSU to advance easily.
Boston College vs. Miami
Boston College swept Miami in the regular season, including a 10-point win in Coral Gables on Wednesday. Don’t care.
As disappointing as the Canes have been, this is still a roster with tons of postseason experience. I have a feeling they come out inspired in Washington DC. I’ll look to back the Canes at a PK or better.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech
The Irish swept the Yellow Jackets, and I think they add a third victory over them in this matchup.
Notre Dame has made major strides since Feb. 1, and actually check in as a top-four defensive team in this conference, per KenPom. I’ll be backing the Irish as a short favorite.
Other Matchup Leans
(If Games Transpire)
Virginia Tech over Florida State
This is the only second-round game locked in as the 8/9 game. I love the Hokies here as likely a short favorite to keep their small tournament hopes alive.
VT just has more offense than the Seminoles in what should be a game with plenty of offense. An we'll have more on the Hokies later.
NC State over Syracuse
Syracuse swept the Wolfpack in the regular season and would need to beat them for a third time assuming the Pack can handle Louisville. I believe the third time would be the charm for NCSU.
Kevin Keatts’ team has been up and down all year, but I expect it to enter DC with a chip on its shoulder. The Orange remain very vulnerable offensively, so give me the Pack as a small dog.
Clemson over Virginia
This is a lookahead spot to the quarterfinals if Clemson can handle the winner of BC/Miami.
Despite being the 6-seed, the Tigers are, in my opinion, the third-best team in this conference and will have revenge on their minds for multiple reasons here.
Virginia beat the Tigers by a point on their home floor earlier in the year, and UVA also knocked Clemson out in the semis of this tournament last year, which ended up costing Brad Brownell’s team a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Give me Clemson as a short favorite.
Projected ACC Semifinals
North Carolina vs. Wake Forest
This would require Wake Forest to win two games, including beating Pitt in the quarterfinals. Doing that would likely be enough to guarantee Steve Forbes’ team a spot in the tournament.
I think the Deacs could battle with UNC in this round, but I’ll take the Heels as the safer play to make the title game.
Clemson vs. Duke
This is where I’ll take an upset. Clemson lost by a point in Cameron Indoor earlier in the year after a questionable late foul call. The Tigers avenge that loss with a dominant performance over the Dukies on Friday night.
ACC Tournament Pick
Clemson over North Carolina
The 6-seed Tigers go the distance and take down heavyweights Duke and North Carolina on back-to-back nights.
Pre-ACC Tournaments Futures
My official pick is Clemson over North Carolina in the title game, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a few other futures I'll target before the tournament gets underway on Tuesday.
Clemson Tigers
To Win Tournament (+850)
This one is pretty straightforward, as I laid out my path for the Tigers above. They should be favorites until the semis, and then you take your chances from there.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
To Win Tournament (+900)
The Deacs need likely two wins to secure a bid, but why stop there? Wake has the offensive firepower to hang with any team in this conference, so I’ll take a chance on an explosive team playing for its postseason life.
Virginia Tech Hokies
To Win Tournament (+3000)
This is a bit of an ode to 2022 but also the backing of a veteran roster. If you remember, the Hokies were outside the tournament picture before rattling off four wins in four nights to cut down the nets two seasons ago.
Players like Hunter Cattoor and Sean Pedulla were on that roster, and they still are today.
Virginia Tech would once again be required to win four games in as many days, starting with Florida State followed by North Carolina. The Hokies actually get an easier and very winnable game in the semis if they can shock the Heels, and then once you get to the title game, you’ve got house money on your side.
Plus, there would be plenty of hedge opportunities with this number, particularly if Duke gets upset early.
It should be a fantastic week in Washington DC, and I look forward to sitting back and taking in the action. Let’s cash some winners!
