Villanova vs. Michigan Odds & Betting Predictions - December 9, 2025

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To give you some perspective when it comes to Michigan’s dominance this season, let’s start with its KenPom rating, specifically its Adjusted Efficiency Margin (36.43). The last two national champions, Florida and UConn, finished their championship seasons with ratings of 36. The Wolverines have the best Kill Shot margin in all of college basketball (+1.5 per game). What that means is they go on one to two 10-0+ runs per game, and they haven’t surrendered a single one yet. When they draw a quality opponent, they’ve taken things to a whole new level. Michigan thumped Auburn 102-72 and Gonzaga 101-61. This dominance starts with Yaxel Lendeborg, who is playing at a Wooden Award level. He’s the second-highest rated defensive player in the nation, per Evan Miya, and he’s posted a pair of 20-10 double-doubles in the past five games. When you pair his relentless defensive energy on the low block with Aday Mara, a 7’3” shot eraser, it’s easy to see why no one is scoring inside the arc (37.5% 2PT FG, 1st). Villanova looks reborn under the leadership of Kevin Willard, but the Cats have fattened up on cupcakes (285th SOS). In their opener against BYU, the Cougars' athleticism and depth bothered Nova. It showed up in their shooting percentage (36%) and in the turnover margin (-7). I expect more of the same against the best defensive outfit in the country. And one final piece to consider here, when laying 16 or more points, Dusty May really shines. In his year and a half in Ann Arbor, his Wolverines have fared 6-2 against the spread as a massive favorite of 16+.