NC State vs. Clemson Odds & Betting Predictions - January 21, 2026

#90-95

Solid spot. Might get abused in the post but can make up for it with 3s on the other end and press could give Clemson issues.

Ice cold right now, but we’re due for some good variance. Let me start off by saying Clemson basketball is good, but they are not as good as many might think. Despite being ranked 18th in the AP Poll, many advanced metrics, including mine, don’t have the Tigers nearly that high. We have Clemson as the 29th best team in the country with a 15.8 rating. KenPom and Evan Miya offer similar views, ranking them 25th and 30th respectively. Meanwhile, we have NC State ranked three spots above Clemson with a 16.1 rating. Here’s the thing about this NC State team. They have been very disappointing this season and are coming off a brutal loss. However, this was one of my favorite rosters coming into the year. Adding Will Wade as head coach was a great move, and I really like the transfers they brought in. With many big portal teams, it’s going to take some time to gel. This team is extremely talented and should start to put it together soon. This matchup is also interesting when you think back to last season. Clemson was blown out by McNeese State in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Will Wade was the coach of that team, and he brought over some of his McNeese State guys with him. Wade and this roster clearly know how to handle this Clemson team. NC State is one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. They rank 6th nationally in three point percentage and are shooting 42% from deep in ACC play, which is best in the conference. This is concerning for Clemson, as the Tigers have struggled to defend the three during ACC contests, ranking just 9th in opponent 3P%. Clemson especially struggles against top of the key threes, which is exactly where NC State has been on fire. NC State does give up plenty of looks from three, but Clemson doesn’t really want to settle for perimeter shots. The Tigers have also not been good from deep themselves. Their game plan is to get the ball down low and score in the paint. Unfortunately for them, NC State has one of the best rim defenses in the country, allowing just 0.80 points per possession on post ups and 0.79 points per possession on rim attacks. Offensively, I see more paths for NC State than I do for Clemson. The Tigers really struggle to defend in transition, and this is another area where NC State is elite. They score 1.37 points per possession in transition, which ranks in the 93.7th percentile of efficiency. Home court advantage helps Clemson, but I think this game will be much closer than most people expect. If you look at ShotQuality, they also have Clemson due for some regression. Despite being 16-3, ShotQuality has them as just a 13-6 team and ranked only 61st in adjusted offensive SQ. Meanwhile, NC State is due for positive regression, with a 14-4 ShotQuality record compared to their current 12-6 mark. All in all, NC State is a team I want to buy low on after their bad loss to Georgia Tech, while Clemson is a team I’m looking to sell high on after their hot start to the season. Give me NC State to cover on the road.

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