Rockets vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - December 16, 2025

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Houston ball out

#RLM

Our model has the Rockets winning 122.73-115.10, which gives us a fair spread of -6.38. I have Houston rated as the second best team in the league with a 7.5 rating, while we have the Nuggets rated third at 6.9. Both teams will come into this game shorthanded: the Rockets remain without Fred VanVleet and Dorian Finney-Smith, while the Nuggets are without Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun. However, the Rockets could potentially get Tari Eason back tonight, which would be huge for this roster. Eason is a very underrated player. I simply can’t get to this +1.5 line. These teams met less than a month ago, with the Nuggets winning 112–109 in Houston. However, Shot Quality gave Denver just a 22% postgame win expectancy. According to their data, the Rockets should have won that game 119-108. A win is a win, but I like to dive into the advanced metrics. This now sets up as an in season revenge spot for the Rockets, which is a spot I always like to look at. These teams split four games last season, with the road team winning each time. The Nuggets usual home court advantage has largely disappeared this season. They’ve now lost their last four home games and sit just 6-4 at Ball Arena compared to 12–2 on the road. It’s a very weird trend to follow. Houston comes into this game 8-4 on the road. The Rockets rank third in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This team is incredibly balanced and super fun to watch. The Nuggets do have the best offense in the NBA, but their defense continues to struggle, ranking 17th in defensive rating and 18th in defensive efficiency. This team continues to focus almost entirely on the offensive end. Don’t get me wrong, the Nuggets are hard to stop, but the Rockets would be the team to do it. Holding Denver to 112 points is an impressive feat considering they average 125.5 points per game. Houston is also the best rebounding team in the NBA. The Nuggets offense ranks second in 3P% and first in eFG%, but the Rockets are top five in both 3P% and eFG% allowed. On the contrary, the Nuggets defense ranks just 25th in eFG% allowed. This defense has been brutal and is getting worse as the season goes on. The Nuggets are also ranked higher in our NBA luck rankings. I simply think the Rockets are the better team and have in season revenge on their minds. The Nuggets also have much more concerning injuries. If Tari Eason suits up tonight, I like this spot even more. Give me the Rockets to cover on the road.

@JoeDellera ⭐️ https://myaction.app/4IKpf7ku7Yb