Heat vs. Warriors Odds & Betting Predictions - December 29, 2023

Heat at Warriors

3:00 am • NBA TV

Miami Heat

37-45

114

114 - 102

Golden State Warriors

48-34

102

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Heat 37-45	+2	+6.5-110	o232-110	+215
Warriors 48-34	u224.5	-6.5-110	u232-110	-265

Friday 3:00 a.m.

December 29, 2023

Chase CenterSan Francisco

K.Thompson o18.5 Pts (Live)-114

MIA +6.5-105

B.Podziemski o4.5 Rebs-310

Alt line. Good parlay piece. 5+ reb in all 7g as starter and MIA allowing 4th-most reb/g to SG. #NBABetStream

J.Kuminga o0.5 3pt M-145

1+ 3PM in 8 of L13. Shooting 41% from 3 in Dec. MIA allowing 4th-highest 3PA rate and 5th-most 3PM/g to PF. #NBABetStream

T.Herro o23.5 Pts-125

GSW -210

No Jimmy/Lowry/Caleb for MIA and GSW 8-0 SU L8 at home.(FWIW, GS also 9-2 ATS in L11 reffed by James Williams.) Catch me sweating this later on #NBABetStream in NBA App!

J.Kuminga o18.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

1.15u

MIA +5.5-112

B.Podziemski o20.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-110

B.Podziemski o20.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

1.15u

Over in each of his L3, and seems to have found his stride as a starter. Has been getting more consistent minutes than Kuminga and Wiggins, and I expect that to continue today. And the matchup should suit him. The Heat are really tough on-ball, but do allow spot ups and cuts, which is where Podz does most of his scoring. Also a very conducive matchup to guard rebounds (he’s an excellent rebounder for a wing) and transition buckets. And I even like his assists - I see the Warriors trying to get Steph going off ball, as opposed to him running the PnR at Bam.

S.Curry o27.5 Pts-122

$61.00

T.Herro o23.5 Pts-125

0.8u

S.Curry o27.5 Pts-120

K.Thompson o18.5 Pts-120

1.2u

S.Curry o4.5 3pt M-115

Featured Insight
The Heat are 10-4 (.714) when they win the turnover margin this season -- 7th-best in the NBA; the Warriors have averaged 15.3 turnovers per game this season -- T-4th-highest in the NBA.

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Featured Insight
The Warriors have averaged 36.8 defensive rebounds/game this season -- T-5th-best in the NBA; the Heat have averaged 14.8 offensive rebounds/game this season -- 3rd-worst in the NBA.

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NBA Public Betting

Warriors are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Warriors are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Warriors are 24-16 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Warriors' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 20 of Warriors' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Warriors	41-38-3	17-22-2	24-16-1	27-27-2	14-11-1
Heat	39-42-1	22-19	17-23-1	21-24	18-18-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Warriors	41-41	20-21	21-20	29-27	12-14
Heat	44-38	25-16	19-22	26-19	18-19

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Warriors	48-34	N/A	N/A	37-19	11-15
Heat	37-45	N/A	N/A	26-19	11-26

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Dec 25th	@DEN	L 114-120	+7.5 W	U 235.5	DEN +250
Dec 24th	POR	W 126-106	-8 W	O 231.5	GSW -350
Dec 23rd	WAS	W 129-118	-11 L	U 249.5	GSW -562
Dec 20th	BOS	W 132-126	+5 W	O 233.5	GSW +165
Dec 18th	@POR	W 118-114	-6 L	U 232.5	GSW -225