Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Let's dive into my top three MLB predictions for Sunday, May 12.
MLB Predictions & Expert Picks: Sunday, May 12
Cubs vs. Pirates
This total is way too low given these starting pitchers and the weather in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
The Cubs announced that Kyle Hendricks is going to re-join the rotation and get the start in Pittsburgh, which isn't that encouraging of news given how he's been pitching over the past three years. This year specifically, he has started five games has an ERA 12.00 and an expected ERA of 6.96. His biggest problem? Giving up home runs, as he's given up eight in only 21 innings pitched.
Here is the problem with Hendricks, he's never had any velocity, so he is pretty reliant on keeping his pitches down in the zone to generate a high number of ground balls and induce a lot of soft contact. While is groundball and hard hit rates have remained steady, the location of his changeup, which is his main pitch is ending up down in the zone 10% less of the time than it did two years ago.
The weather is not going to be kind to Hendricks on Sunday, as they wind is going to be blowing out at 10 mph to center field, so that home run problem is likely not getting fixed on Sunday.
Bailey Falter is struggling one again. Through seven starts he has a 5.14 xERA and has a career low 6.27 K/9 rate. The problem for Falter has always been that he's been better out of the bullpen than has a starting pitcher. He's consistently posted xERAs above 4.5 over the last three seasons as a starter and much like Hendricks, he has a home run problem as well. Last year he had a 1.90 HR/9 rate and 17% HR/FB rate, which is not ideal with the wind blowing out.
The Cubs have been obliterating left handed pitching this season putting up a 135 wRC+, so they should be able to crush Falter.
I have 9.1 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on over 7.5 runs at -105.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
Guardians vs. White Sox
Michael Soroka has been a disaster this season for the White Sox.
He's battled a lot of injuries throughout his career and it seems they have taken their toll because through right starts he has a 6.42 xERA and his BB/9 rate his higher than his K/9 rate, which is not something you should ever see if you are a pitcher at the major league level.
Soroka has a slider and changeup that grade out above average by Stuff+, but locating those pitches has been a really big issue, hence the 5.4 BB/9 rate. His slider is his go to pitch and he's utilizing down and away to right handed hitters, but hasn't found the zone at a high rate.
Only 28.5% of the time is he getting hitters to swing on it outside of the zone, per PitcherList. It's a very flat slider, ranking in the 3rd percentile among MLB starting pitchers for iVB (induced vertical break), so when he does leave it in the zone, it's getting crushed.
The Guardians have the fifth lowest whiff rate in baseball against right handed sliders, so this isn't the best of matchups for him. Then if you look at his strike zone plot for his sinker, you will see why that pitch is allowing a .425 xwOBA given how often he is leaving it up in the zone.
image via PitcherList
Soroka is only averaging 91.9 mph on that pitch and it only has a Stuff+ rating of 75, so he better be incredibly effective with his slider because the rest of his pitches will get hit.
The Guardians have already faced Soroka once this season, tagging him for four hits, four runs, and didn't even allow him to finish four innings.
I have the Guardians team total projected at 6.01, so I like the value on Over 4.5 runs at -125.
Pick: Guardians Team Total Over 4.5 (-125 via Caesars)
Reds vs. Giants
Frankie Montas has been perfectly fine this season, posting at 3.63 xERA. His strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up, but he is doing a great job with hit split finger, locating that pitch down in the zone to induce a 86% ground ball rate.
He's also doing a much better job at inducing a lot of soft contact, his barrel rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed are as low as they've been since 2019. In addition to that, his three main pitches of fastball, split finger, and sinker are all allowing an xwOBA under .300, which is a really encouraging sign.
The Giants have been very average offensively this season against right handed pitching, posting a 98 wRC+. They also have seen the most sinkers and split fingers of any team this season and have been ver average against them.
Kyle Harrison has been okay out of the gates, posting a 3.83 xERA, but has a real home run problem. In seven starts last year, he had a HR/9 rate at 2.0 and has improved a little bit this season, but his way of pitching really isn't sustainable against good power hitting teams like Cincinnati.
By nature he is a fly-ball pitcher and is completely reliant on his fastball, which he throws 64.3% of the time in 2024. His fastball doesn't have elite velocity, but what he does have is 14.6 inches of horizontal break, which is why he gets such a high number of fly balls by keeping the ball off the barrel. Pitching in San Francisco is a benefit, but his fastball only has a Stuff+ rating of 95 and his main secondary pitch, a changeup, is only rated at 75.
I have the Reds projected as a -106 road favorite, so I like the price on them at +112.
Pick: Reds ML (+112)
