Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, July 14.
MLB Predictions Sunday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (July 14)
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +114 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
Brady Singer vs. Brayan Bello
The Red Sox should have a good matchup against Brady Singer who has drastically overperformed this season. He is currently sitting with a 2.93 ERA, but his expected ERA is up at 4.53. Singer has largely gotten away with having a severely below average sinker and fastball, as both pitches have a Stuff+ below 80. His slider is above average by pitch modeling metrics and he uses it a lot, throwing it 43.8% of the time.
With that slider he is generating a ground ball rate, which why he's over performing his underlying numbers. The problem for Singer is when you run into a lineup that can hit sliders then you are stuck. The Red Sox have the sixth best xwOBA against right handed sliders this season, so they should be able to hit Singer pretty hard.
Brayan Bello has struggled this season, but he is due for some positive regression. His ERA is well over five, but his expected ERA is down at 4.43. Bello is someone who needs to generate a high number of ground balls to be successful because his main three pitches are a sinker, changeup, slider. He is doing that with a ground ball rate at 52.4%, but that is down almost 5% from last season.
The problems that Bello has mainly run into is with his sinker getting left too far up in the zone where hitters can get on top of it. He's allowing a .357 xwOBA on it, but his changeup and slider have both been effective producing whiff rates above 34%.
The biggest edge for the Red Sox in this game is going to be in the bullpens. Boston has a top 10 bullpen by Stuff+, Pitching+, and xFIP, while Kansas City is in the bottom five in all three categories.
I have the Red Sox projected at -151, so I like the value on the at -135.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-135 via DraftKings)
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 9 -112o / -108u | +154 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9 -112o / -108u | -185 |
Trevor Rogers vs. Nick Lodolo
Trevor Rogers has been really struggled this season for the Marlins. He has an expected ERA sitting at 4.97 and his biggest problem has been his control. He has a BB/9 rate well above four and Location+ rating of 99. Not only does he not have good control, but his pitch arsenal is well below major league standards. His changeup is the only pitch with a Stuff+ rating above 100 and it's not even the pitch he throws most often.
He tries to throw his fastball up in the zone to generate a high fly ball rate and then throw every other pitch down in the zone to try and generate a high number of ground balls. The problem with that is if the pitches you are throwing are below average, major league hitters will eventually hit you hard, especially when you have poor control. So, you end up with a statistical profile looking like this:
image via Baseball Savant
Nick Lodolo is a really good starting pitcher and someone that doesn't get talked about enough. His expected metrics have been outstanding this year, but what has been most impressive is his ability to dominate with his fastball to simply get hitters out. Last year he had one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball, but his ERA was above six. His strikeout rate this season is down over 3%, but his barrel rate and sweet spot rate allowed are both down close to 5%.
His fastball is his best weapon. He pumps it 94 mph and it has an absurd 18.3 inches of horizontal break on it, which is quite literally the highest amount of break on a fastball in the game of baseball. Because of all of that break his fastball has a Stuff+ rating of 117 and opposing hitters only have a .216 xBA against it.
Nick Lodolo, Painted 95mph Fastball…for a ball.🤖🤖🤖 pic.twitter.com/P9HlKxpyXr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2023
The Marlins are one of the worst lineups in baseball against left handed pitching and most importantly have a .294 xwOBA against left handed fastballs, which is the worst mark in baseball.
I have the Reds projected at -224 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -180.
Pick: Reds F5 ML (-180 via DraftKings)
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +114 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
Jameson Taillon vs. Miles Mikolas
Jameson Taillon may not have the best Stuff+ profile, but he's been elite with the command of his pitch arsenal, which has made him incredibly effective. He's coming off a good start against the Orioles where he gave up only four hits and two runs over six innings on the road against one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.
Even though Taillon doesn't have elite velocity with his fastball, he does an outstanding job with his location up in the zone to generate a really high 44% fly ball rate. What has been different this year though is, he's lowered the amount of those flyballs that are going over the fence. His HR/FB rate is down close to 5% compared to last season and that's on top of having one of the lowest walk rates and hard hit rates allowed in baseball.
Miles Mikolas has simply been an average MLB starting pitcher. All of his expected metrics are in line with the league average, but this matchup against the Cubs isn't a great one.
The problem that Mikolas has run into is he doesn't generate nearly any swings and misses, as his whiff rate is the lowest in baseball. So, he needs to generate a lot of soft contact, but he's not even doing that because his hard hit rate allowed is 41.6%, which is in the 26th percentile. The Cubs have been average overall against right handed pitching, but have been top five by xwOBA against right handed fastballs, which is Mikolas' main pitch.
The Cardinals do have a massive bullpen advantage over the Cubs, so to avoid that, I am going to back the Cubs for the first five innings.
