Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, July 27.
MLB Predictions Saturday | Expert Picks, Previews (July 27)
Cubs vs. Royals
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8 -115o / -105u | +100 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -115o / -105u | -120 |
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs. Seth Lugo (KCR)
Shota Imanaga has been incredible for the Cubs. He's posted a 2.86 ERA and a 3.39 xERA, but he is a heavy fly-ball pitcher who is somewhat reliant on benefiting from an ideal pitching environment.
Imanaga utilizes his fastball 57% of the time and it doesn't have much velocity, sitting at only 91.9 mph. He throws it 53.7% of the time up in the zone and has produced a 56.6% fly-ball rate because he has 17.6 inches of iVB (induced vertical break) to keep the ball off the barrel. There have been a lot of games where he's benefited and Saturday should be decent conditions with there being cross wind at Kauffman Stadium.
Imanaga had gone through a rough patch in June, but in his last two starts, he's only given up one run and struck out 16 batters, as the fastball has been really effective. The Royals are well below MLB average against left-handed pitching (93 wRC+), so he should be able to shut them down on Saturday.
Seth Lugo has been good for the Royals, but he has overperformed. Lugo this season has a 2.33 ERA, but his expected ERA is up at 3.89. Lugo has a ton of different pitches that he throws to keep hitters guessing, but the ultimate goal is to keep the ball down in the zone. He is generating a 43% ground-ball rate, but when he's not getting ground-balls, he's getting hit hard because his hard-hit rate is up at 40.4%.
The Cubs have been hitting the ball much better as of late against right-handed pitching, so they should give Lugo some problems.
The Cubs bullpen has been lights out in July, as they only have a 1.22 ERA over the past 30 days, so they will have the advantage over the Royals who have the second worst xFIP in baseball.
I have the Cubs projected as -115 favorites, so I like the value on them at +102.
Pick: Cubs ML (+102 via DraftKings)
Yankees vs. Red Sox
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
Marcus Stroman (NYY) vs. Kutter Crawford (BOS)
Marcus Stroman is very overvalued as a starting pitcher. His ERA is at 3.51, but his expected ERA is almost a full run higher at 4.49. Stroman has struggled because his sinker that he throws almost 36% of the time hasn't really been that effective. It really doesn't have much velocity on it, as it's only averaging 89.9 mph and it only has a Stuff+ rating of 94. Opposing hitters have had a lot of success against it well, as they have a .372 xwOBA.
Stroman and the Yankees faced Boston on June 16 and got roughed up. He gave up four runs off seven hits in only five innings because his command was all over the place. He ended up walking four batters in that start and could very well do the same here again.
The Red Sox not only hit right-handed pitching really well, but they have a .362 xwOBA against right-handed sinkers, so this isn't the best of matchups for Stroman.
Kutter Crawford has been incredibly solid for Boston this season. He has a 3.83 xERA though he got roughed up in his last start against the Dodgers — but the four starts previous to that one, he only allowed one run. One of those starts came against the Yankees, where he went seven innings of shutout ball, giving up only four hits.
Crawford is someone who generates a very high whiff rate with all of his pitches. His CSW% (called strike + whiff rate) is at 30%, which is in the 83rd percentile among MLB pitchers. His fastball has been very effective up in the zone, using 19.1 inches of induced vertical break to get on top of hitters.
That fastball combined with a really good cutter and sweeper grades him out at a 106 Stuff+ rating, and because of how great his control is, his Location+ rating is at 106, which makes him an incredibly effective and difficult pitcher to face.
I have the Red Sox projected at -132 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -115.
Pick: Red Sox F5 ML (-115 via BetMGM)
Athletics vs. Angels
Athletics Odds Spread Total Moneyline Angels Odds Spread Total Moneyline 
Mitch Spence (OAK) vs. Tyler Anderson (LAA)
Tyler Anderson is one of the most overvalued pitchers in baseball. He has a 2.91 ERA, but his xERA is at 4.31 and his xFIP is even higher at 4.89. He, like most starting pitchers in 2024, throws his fastball — that only averages 89.2 mph — up in the zone well over 50% of the time.
He has a really high amount of induced vertical break, but when you are throwing it so slow, it really doesn't matter. Opposing hitters have a .368 xwOBA against his fastball, which is a big problem since he throws it 41% of the time.
One big problem that Anderson has is his control. His BB/9 rate is at 3.49 and he has a Location+ around the MLB average. Those control issues were very evident the last time he faced Oakland on June 25, when he walked five batters. The A's are very good against left-handed pitching (113 wRC+), which is top 10 in baseball.
Mitch Spence is a perfectly average MLB starting pitcher, but is being priced like he's well below average. He has a 4.67 ERA, but his expected ERA is way down at 3.86 and projection models have him around a 4.2 ERA-type of pitcher.
He mainly uses two pitches a cutter and a slider with both grading out above average by Stuff+. Both of those are pitches that the Angels struggle against. He shut the Halos down the last time he face them, giving up only one run in 5 1/3 innings.
The A's will have a pretty decent bullpen advantage here as well, so I am not sure the A's should be underdogs on Saturday and I like the value on them at +102.
Pick: A's ML (+102 via DraftKings)
