Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, July 8.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Blue Jays F5 ML (-120 or Better)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR (-160 or Better)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130 or Better)
- Tigers to Score First Run (+100 or Better)
- Braves ML (-110 or Better)
- Rays F5 ML (-140 or Better)
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120 or Better)
- Nationals vs Astros NRFI (+100 or Better)
- Nationals vs Astros F5 Under 5.5 (-150 or Better)
- Chase Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
- Chase Burns to Record a Quality Start (+150 or Better)
- Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 or Better)
- Guardians F5 ML (+100 or Better)
- Brewers F5 ML (-160 or Better)
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR (+140 or Better)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run (+350 or Better)
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 or Better)
- Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 HRR (-130 or Better)
- Jake McCarthy 1+ Stolen Base (+350 or Better)
Blue Jays vs Giants Picks
The Giants will host the Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Oracle Park.
In what sets up to be a great starting-pitcher matchup, Jays’ right-hander Dylan Cease will take the mound while the Giants trot out righty Logan Webb.
In just over 90 frames, Cease has recorded a super impressive 2.79 ERA, ranking 12th amongst pitchers.
Toronto’s righty has re-established himself as one of the premier strikeout pitchers, having fanned 137 hitters already — second to just the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski.
While Cease enters this contest in elite form, Webb has been far more inconsistent, currently posting a 3.66 ERA throughout 15 starts.
Given that Cease has been far superior, I favor backing the Jays to prevail on their first-five moneyline as my favorite wager ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s interleague clash.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 ML (-120 or Better)
Cubs vs Orioles Picks
The Cubs and Orioles will duke it out in a game that I expect to deliver many runs.
In just under 90 frames, right-handed veteran Colin Rea has been abysmal with his 4.74 ERA to start the season.
Granted, he has actually improved over his last few outings, having allowed just three earned runs in his last 15 innings pitched.
And while Rea has been quite volatile, Orioles' righty Dean Kremer has had far more luck in 2026 thus far, largely due to the fact that he has made just three starts in 2026 to date, having just recently been re-activated from the IL.
Kremer was quite impressive, recording a 3.18 ERA along with a 0.88 WHIP throughout his first 15 frames on the mound.
Like Rea, despite Baltimore’s righty entering this contest in stable form, I worry about both starters’ susceptibility to increased barrel rates in 2026.
That said, I will be looking to back Cubs’ lefty slugger Pete Crow-Armstrong to build upon his scorching form at the plate thus far by exceeding both his 1.5 Total Base line, in addition to his 1.5 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBIs) mark.
According to BARTOLO, a new statistical baseball model generated by Action Network’s Sean Zerillo, Kremer’s sizable 2.65 home-run rate to opposing hitters may foreshadow big problems before his matchup with one of baseball’s premier sluggers.
Though Kremer does a great job keeping balls on the ground or in the zone, Crow-Armstrong could smash a pitch left over the plate, with the Cubs’ star boasting a ridiculous .527 SLG%.
Picks:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR (-160 or Better)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130 or Better)
Athletics vs Tigers Picks
The Tigers will take on the Athletics at Comerica Park.
While the A’s plan to send out lefty veteran Jeffrey Springs, righty Troy Melton will take the mound for the Tigers.
Following a phenomenal start to his 2026 campaign, Springs has been atrocious, recording a 5.79 ERA across his 18 outings thus far.
Conversely, Melton has been very impressive on the bump, posting an exceptional 2.05 ERA whilst maintaining an extremely efficient 0.80 WHIP in just his second season in the Big Leagues.
Given Melton’s consistency across nearly 48 innings this season, I favor backing more of a unique betting angle as my primary approach.
I favor backing Detroit to score the first run of Wednesday night’s clash as I believe the Tigers present some solid betting value.
Picks: Tigers to Score First Run
Braves vs Pirates Picks
The Braves and Pirates will square off on Wednesday night at PNC Park in what should be a thrilling National League showdown.
Atlanta's Grant Holmes will look to build upon his scorching form, having recorded a 3.83 ERA this season.
On the contrary, the Pirates’ highly touted prospect Jared Jones has had major command issues since his return from the IL.
Jones boasts an overpowering pitching arsenal, highlighted by his four-seam fastball, which has been clocked at 102 MPH, and is often praised for his strikeout prowess.
While Jones frequently implements a very effective high-spin slider in his arsenal, his command issues could prove fatal, as he will have to pitch against arguably the best lineup in baseball, the Braves.
Though his last three outings are quite promising, Jones has consistently faded when left on the mound past the 4th inning.
I will be looking to back the Braves moneyline.
Picks: Braves ML (-110 or Better)
Yankees vs Rays Picks
The Rays will host their divisional rival, the New York Yankees, in the third of a four-game homestand at Tropicana Field.
In what should be a solid pitching matchup, Yanks’ veteran Gerrit Cole will take the mound, while lefty Shane McClanahan will start for the Rays following a phenomenal start to his 2026 campaign.
In his first eight starts, Cole has recorded a 4.01 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP, which could be the start of a steady decline as his career continues to progress into his late-30s.
Conversely, the Rays’ McClanahan has been remarkable throughout his return to the mound as he finally appears to be fully healthy after an extensive injury history that derailed the beginning of his career.
The 29-year-old lefty has recorded a 3.05 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP across his 16 outings on the mound in 2026.
As my primary betting angle, I will be looking to back the Rays on their first-five moneyline given McClanahan’s stellar form and his previous successes pitching versus several of the hitters in New York’s lineup.
Also, given Cole’s recent struggles, I favor targeting Rays’ slugger Junior Caminero to have another massive day at the plate. Over the past two weeks, Caminero has been far-and-away the hottest hitter in baseball.
Tampa's superstar boasts elite exit velocities and thrives when faced with elevated fastballs and breaking pitches left over the middle of the plate.
That said, I favor backing Caminero to exceed his 1.5 Total Base mark in what should be another great night for him at the plate.
Picks:
- Rays F5 ML (-140 or Better)
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120 or Better)
Astros vs Nationals Picks
The Nationals and Astros will square off in the last of a three-game interleague set at Nationals Park.
Houston right-hander Spencer Arrighetti began his 2026 campaign in elite form and was one of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball over the first two months of the season.
However, his form has taken a turn for the worse with several consecutive negative performances that plagued his entire June, allowing 24 earned runs across 24 innings.
Though the Astros’ righty appears to be in volatile form right now, I have slightly regained my faith in Arrighetti after a remarkable quality start in his last outing, allowing just one earned run and two hits across six innings of work.
The Nats’ left-hander Foster Griffin has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2026 season amongst starters, having recorded a 2.87 ERA along with a 1.04 WHIP thus far — both of which rank inside the top-15 in baseball.
Griffin has posted an impressive 9-2 record on the mound this season, and also ranks inside the top-100 in strikeouts as well.
I favor backing two different betting angles ahead of Wednesday night’s matchup — both for no runs to be scored in the first inning of the game, and for the total to go under in the first five innings.
Picks:
- NRFI (+100 or Better)
- F5 Under 5.5 (-150 or Better)
Phillies vs Reds Picks
The Reds will host the Phillies in the second of a three-game homestand at the Great American Ball Park.
While the Phils have yet to announce their starter before Wednesday’s contest, Reds’ 23-year-old right-hander Chase Burns will take the mound looking to build upon what has been a phenomenal 2026 campaign.
Cincy’s youngster ranks amongst the best starters across several statistical categories, including: a 10-1 overall record (2nd), 2.40 ERA (5th), 116 strikeouts (12th), and an efficient 1.08 WHIP (14th).
Burns utilizes an overpowering pitching style boasting an elite high-release four-seam fastball and a devastating high-velocity slider.
Burns possesses a definitive analytical edge against the Phils due to his high-octane four-seamer and one of the best sliders in the game.
Burns throws his slider at a 37% clip due to its stellar effectiveness, recording a 53% whiff rate and a 50% strikeout rate per BARTOLO.
BARTOLO also indicates that Burns' slider has produced an incredible .193 xwOBA to opposing hitters, making a case for it being one of the most efficient pitches in all of baseball.
Given Burns’ utter dominance, I favor backing him to both exceed his strikeout total and to record a Quality Start ahead of Wednesday’s showdown.
Picks:
- Chase Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
- Chase Burns to Record a Quality Start (-150 or Better)
Guardians vs Twins Picks
The Twins will host the Guardians in the second of a three-game series at Target Field.
27-year-old righty Slade Cecconi will take the mound for the visiting Guardians, while Minnesota plans to send out rookie left-hander Connor Prielipp in a game we may see plenty of runs.
In Prielipp’s first 12 starts of his MLB career, he has had a very difficult time transitioning to the majors with a 4.96 ERA on the season thus far across 62 innings.
Given the Twins’ youngster’s lack of punch-out prowess ranking outside the top-100 amongst starting-pitchers, Prielipp relies far too heavily on ground-outs in regard to his ability to retire opposing hitters.
Per BARTOLO, Prielipp throws his four-seam fastball more than any other pitch in his arsenal at a whopping 29%, despite that pitch generating just a 12% strike-out rate and a 15% whiff-rate.
BARTOLO also suggests that Prielipp’s most-preferred pitch has been the least efficient in his entire arsenal, with hitters producing a .419 xwOBA.
I expect lefty slugger Chase DeLauter to have a massive night at the plate given he excels versus high-velocity pitches and boasts a .365 AVG when facing left-handed pitchers.
I will be looking to back the Guardians’ DH to both exceed his 1.5 Total Base mark; I don't mind backing the Guardians on the first-five moneyline in this spot as Ceccioni’s form on the mound has been steadily improving with each start.
Picks:
- Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 or Better)
- Guardians F5 ML (+100 or Better)
Brewers vs Cardinals Picks
The Brewers and Cardinals will battle in what will be the third of a four-game set at Busch Stadium.
Right hander Andre Pallante will take the mound for the Cards, while the visiting Brew Crew will trot out one of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball, lefty Kyle Harrison.
In 16 outings to kick off his 2026 campaign, Harrison has recorded a rather impressive 2.82 ERA on the mound thus far. Harrison has been extremely efficient as well, currently posting a 1.08 WHIP.
Despite Pallante’s decent metrics on the mound in 2026, I expect him to be very susceptible to damage versus a scorching Brewers’ lineup.
In four previous at-bats versus Pallante, Milwaukee slugger Jackson Chourio has had a massive edge, recording four hits, including a triple and driving in three runners in the process.
Given Harrison’s dominant form on the mound and Chourio’s prior successes versus Pallante, I favor backing both the Brewers on their first-five moneyline and for Jackson to exceed an alternate 2.5 HRR mark.
Picks:
- Brewers F5 ML (-160 or Better)
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR (+140 or Better)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Picks
The Padres are set to host the Diamondbacks in the last of a three-game homestand at Petco Park.
While Padres' right-hander Michael King has had a stellar season, I will be looking to touch upon how San Diego’s lineup matches up with the D-Backs’ righty Jose Cabrera.
Though Cabrera has made just three appearances on the mound this season, his 4.73 ERA along with a 1.58 WHIP are cause for concern with a road start.
In particular, I favor targeting Padres’ superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. to have a huge day at the plate.
According to BARTOLO, Cabrera’s pitching metrics have been terrible across the board having recorded a 5.44 wFIP thus far.
Additionally, wFIP is a sabermetric stat that measures a pitcher’s effectiveness solely on the events they can control, including: strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitch and homers.
Per BARTOLO, Cabrera has a 6.33 xERA heading into this contest largely due to his susceptibility to hard-contact rates from opposing hitters in 2026.
Tatis' aggressive pull-heavy swing path boasts tremendous loud contact and elite exit velocities that could pose some problems for Cabrera.
While Cabrera has a quite versatile arsenal at his disposal, he has struggled mightily with the command of his secondary offerings, which has led to his frequently being behind in the count, thus forcing him to throw strikes via his four-seam fastball.
Tatis thrives against four-seam fastballs more than any other pitch, and could make Cabrera pay if he leaves one over the heart of the plate.
That said, I am willing to take a shot on Tatis to launch a homer as my primary betting angle ahead of Wednesday night’s battle for NL West supremacy.
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ HR (+350 or Better)
Rockies vs Dodgers Picks
The Dodgers and Rockies will square off in the last of a three-game series in Los Angeles.
Right-hander Roki Sasaki will take the mound for L.A. at their home Dodger Stadium, while Colorado will send out righty Ryan Feltner in a game I expect to deliver plenty of offense given the atrocious pitching metrics from both starters.
That said, I favor backing some player-prop markets for two primary betting angles ahead of this clash.
For my first wager, I feel great backing Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman to have a massive day at the plate given his previous success versus the Rockies’ Feltner.
In 14 prior at-bats versus the Rockies’ right-hander, Freeman has recorded six hits, including ripping both a double and a triple.
In addition to his 14 at-bats, the Dodgers’ lefty has drawn four walks off Feltner as well, which perfectly encompasses his boasting elite plate discipline.
Freeman has been one of the most consistent contact-hitters in the MLB for the great majority of his career, which should give him another advantage given Feltner's lack of punch-out prowess throughout his entire arsenal, with his changeup as the sole exception.
Freeman rarely chases pitches from out of the zone, which makes him highly dangerous against Feltner’s breaking balls, and further negates the Rockies righty’s ability to rely on his sinker for soft contact and groundouts.
That said, my first betting angle for this matchup will be for Freeman to exceed his 1.5 Total Base mark.
In a second handicap, I will also target Sasaki’s vast struggles on the mound, which have actually been even more horrific than Feltner's, having recorded a 5.40 ERA along with a 1.40 WHIP.
In particular, I favor targeting Rockies’ OF Jake McCarthy, who is quietly one of the hottest hitters in all of baseball right now. In two previous encounters versus Sasaki, McCarthy is 1-for-2 with a double.
Since being traded to the Rockies prior to the 2026 season, McCarthy is slashing a very impressive .305/.345/.520, having smashed nine homers, driven in 49 runners and stolen 19 bases.
Sasaki has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters like McCarthy, which has often led to his letting up hard-contact rates to opposing hitters.
Given Sasaki’s inefficient WHIP and McCarthy's current form at the plate, I favor backing McCarthy to exceed both his 1.5 HRR mark and to record a stolen base.
Picks:
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 or Better)
- Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 HRR (-130 or Better)
- Jake McCarthy 1+ Stolen Base (+350 or Better)
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, July 1
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- Blue Jays F5 ML (-120 or Better)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR (-160 or Better)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130 or Better)
- Tigers to Score First Run (+100 or Better)
- Braves ML (-110 or Better)
- Rays F5 ML (-140 or Better)
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120 or Better)
- Nationals vs Astros NRFI (+100 or Better)
- Nationals vs Astros F5 Under 5.5 (-150 or Better)
- Chase Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
- Chase Burns to Record a Quality Start (+150 or Better)
- Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 or Better)
- Guardians F5 ML (+100 or Better)
- Brewers F5 ML (-160 or Better)
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR (+140 or Better)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run (+350 or Better)
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 or Better)
- Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 HRR (-130 or Better)
- Jake McCarthy 1+ Stolen Base (+350 or Better)
