MLB Home Run & Total Base Props
- Seiya Suzuki (+350)
- Ketel Marte (+300)
- Francisco Lindor (+360)
Parlay Odds: +8180
Baseball betting is one of a kind. Diving into a full MLB slate every day is grueling, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total. But there are always opportunities to fade pitchers.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases and home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are almost always plus-money, and home run props can often reach the +700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total base props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Like slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason. But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +12780 odds.
Read below for my three MLB home run props for Wednesday, June 19.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Opposing Pitcher: Spencer Howard
We have great hitting conditions over at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, with wind blowing out 13 miles per hour.
It also happens to be mid-90 degree temperatures, a great combination for a home run environment.
It’s not official yet, but all signs point toward Spencer Howard getting the start for the Giants. While he’s given up just one home run this season, it’s only a matter of time before that negatively regresses to his mean.
The right-hander has a career 1.89 HR/9 rate and has been hit hard (42.6%) in his four starts for San Francisco. Nearly half of all balls put in play against Howard go in the air.
At first, my inclination was to go to a lefty bat like Michael Busch or Cody Bellinger here. But dig a little deeper into the numbers and Howard actually has reverse splits.
This season, lefties are hitting just .167 against Howard (.445 OPS). Righties? They’re crushing him to the tune of .438 average (1.201 OPS).
It’s not just this year, either. Back in 2022 with Texas, Howard gave up 10 home runs to the 100 right-handed hitters he faced. He allowed just two to the 79 lefties.
That brings me to Seiya Suzuki, who's hitting .304 with a .935 OPS in the month of June. His hard-hit rate has skyrocketed over the last 10-15 games as well, which you can see in the graph below.
Suzuki has the second-best wRC+ among all Cubs against right-handed pitching (130) and has flashed some power, too (.182 ISO).
Oddly enough, he also finds much more success against righties than lefties.
Given the wind conditions on Wednesday, targeting this game is a smart decision. I’m going Suzuki, but there are plenty of great options to choose from with this total soaring to 11.5.
Pick: Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+350, FanDuel)
Opposing Pitcher: Patrick Corbin
If you want to talk about underrated players, especially in the MVP market, Ketel Marte is your guy. He's third in WAR this season and has taken a giant leap forward at the plate. He's also absolutely battered left-handed pitching this season.
And when I mean battered, I mean destroyed. His wRC+ is an eye-popping 219 and he has a .414 ISO. He’s safely inside the top 10 in all of baseball in both of those numbers and has 11 home runs against southpaws.
The next-best Diamondback? Lourdes Gurriel Jr. with three.
Marte ranks in the top 10% of all hitters in xBA (.292), xSLG (.508) and hard-hit rate (53.5%). He's an on-base machine and draws an amazing matchup against Patrick Corbin on Wednesday.
I’m still not sure how Corbin is in the major leagues. Each season, he's somehow taken a step backwards. He ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in xBA (.326), hard-hit rate allowed (49%) and xERA (6.86).
Yes, his xERA is 6.86. That means based on balls put into play, he's actually somehow due for negative regression even more so (5.84 ERA). His barrel rate has creeped above double digits for the second time in his career, too.
Corbin often gives up home runs in bunches. He's allowed a home run in just three of his last five games (eight, if you want to be nicer). But in the games he allowed a long ball? Three vs. the Mariners, a pair against the Guardians and three against the Mets.
It’s a small sample size, but in nine at-bats against Corbin, Marte has hit .556 with a pair of home runs.
Could Corbin opt to walk Marte? That’s a possibility given how dominant he is at the plate. But then he’d have to deal with a red-hot lineup that's heating up at the right time.
Pick: Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+300 FanDuel)
Opposing Pitcher: Andrew Heaney
The Grimace Mets have taken the MLB by storm and have won seven straight games. A very favorable matchup on Wednesday presents itself as Andrew Heaney takes the mound as the Rangers look to avoid a sweep.
Heaney ranks in the 21st percentile in hard-hit percentage (43). Pair that with a fly-ball rate that nears 50%, and it often leads to disaster. The southpaw has a career 1.57 HR/9 and has allowed at least one home run in five of his last seven starts.
He also happens to really struggle at Globe Life Field. In six games this season, Heaney has a 5.08 ERA and has allowed five home runs across 28.1 innings.
Francisco Lindor has begun to right the ship in New York over the last month. It was a really slow start, but the switch-hitting shortstop is batting .308 with a .912 OPS over the last 30 days. His power has been flashed — five home runs and 10 doubles — and Wednesday he finds himself in his best split.
Lindor has a 148 wRC+ against southpaws along with a .232 ISO. Perhaps most astonishing is his 6.5 strikeout percentage across 77 plate appearances. His three home runs vs. left-handed pitching is second on the team and his extra-base hit rate is actually 53% in this split.
He also happens to bat first for the Mets and since New York is in Texas, there’s a chance we even see a fifth plate appearance for Lindor.
But in this matchup alone, I expect Lindor to do damage.
Pick: Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+360, FanDuel)
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets: Wednesday, June 19
- Seiya Suzuki (+350)
- Ketel Marte (+300)
- Francisco Lindor (+360)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $818.
