MLB Best Bets, Picks
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It's a short, nine-game Monday slate in Major League Baseball, but our staff of MLB betting analysts has cooked up two MLB best bets and picks for Aug. 5, including sides on Guardians vs. Diamondbacks and Cubs vs. Twins.
Cody Goggin's Guardians vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: Back Arizona On F5 Spread
By Cody Goggin
Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks will travel on Monday to face Logan Allen and the Cleveland Guardians.
Gallen is putting together a solid season for Arizona, posting a 3.56 ERA, 4.13 xERA, 3.37 FIP, and 3.89 SIERA.
Gallen ranks in the 58th percentile among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate and the 52nd percentile in walk rate, so nothing special there. However, he pairs a 47% ground-ball rate with an above-average barrel rate allowed (65th percentile), so his batted-ball profile looks great.
Logan Allen has not been able to say the same. Allen has a 5.67 ERA with a 5.54 xERA this year and is just being brought back up from AAA after being demoted in July. Allen ranks among the bottom 10% of qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed, average exit velocity allowed and barrel rate allowed. He's also below average in the strikeout (28th percentile) and walk (34th percentile) departments.
Both teams have been good offensively this season, but Arizona is a bit better. The Diamondbacks rank seventh in wRC+ and sixth in wOBA this season. They rank seventh and third in these two categories, respectively, against left-handers this season, so I’m not worried about a platoon disadvantage against Allen.
Cleveland’s offense has been productive this season, ranking 13th in wRC+ and 14th in wOBA. However, they don’t do this by hitting the ball very hard, ranking 30th in hard-hit rate, 29th in barrel rate, and 28th in exit velocity.
Arizona has a huge advantage on the mound in this matchup and a slight advantage offensively. For this reason, I like taking Arizona to have a lead after the first five innings at even odds.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 -0.5 (-108)
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Tanner McGrath's Cubs vs Twins Best Bet: Bet David Festa On ML?
I’m still in on David Festa, Minnesota’s starting pitcher for Monday. I believe his fastball-slider-changeup mix can play at the big league level, especially considering the monster Stuff+ marks across the arsenal (109 on the fastball, 120 on the slider).
He struggled across his first few outings but got a bit unlucky with the long ball (unsustainable 22% HR/FB rate). His 20% strikeout minus walk rate and 3.87 xFIP are more encouraging.
Additionally, Festa looked very reliable in his most recent outing against the Mets, tossing five innings of two-run ball with six strikeouts. He could be a very effective middle-rotation piece if he keeps his fastball elevated and throws his breaking balls underneath.
Conversely, I’m so out on Kyle Hendricks, Chicago’s starting pitcher for Monday. He’s turning into one of the worst starters in baseball, posting a negative fWAR (-0.2) across 85 innings with earned run indicators pushing five.
He’s lost command of his 88-mph fastball, and his changeup isn’t playing as well as it used to — he’s on pace for a career-low swinging-strike rate (13%), career-low chase rate (40%) and career-high wOBA allowed (.327) on the pitch. I think he's lost some depth on the pitch.
Hendricks is too easily hittable, and Minnesota should take advantage. The Twins are among baseball's most dynamic and dangerous lineups, ranking third in wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past month (138). Royce Lewis is slugging .600 since returning to the lineup in late July, and the Twins are 7-3 in those games.
The Twins are also a top-10 defensive team and continue trending up in the bullpen, where Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran have been looking much better lately.
Meanwhile, the Cubs' offense is maybe league-average. Only three players in the regular nine-man lineup have an above-average OPS, so they’re very top-heavy surrounding Seiya Suzuki. The bullpen has been running hot (1.75 ERA over the past month) but is due for plenty of negative regression (4.09 xFIP), especially now that Mark Leiter Jr. plays for the Yankees.
The Cubs played on Sunday Night Baseball, and it’s generally smart to fade a team coming off that late-night Sunday spot. Hopefully, the bats are slow, and the Twins cruise to an easy victory.
Pick: Twins ML (-116)
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