Players’ Weekend in MLB begins with the Toronto Blue Jays (57-64) and Chicago Cubs (59-63) opening a three-game interleague series on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET on Apple TV+.
Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks looks to be returning to form and isn't permitting much hard contact. However, he is walking more hitters than he has in years’ past and doesn't miss many bats.
Hendricks’ opponent on Friday will be the Jays’ Yariel Rodríguez, who has been a decent addition to Toronto’s rotation. The 27-year-old righty misses the barrel of the bat, though he has issues with walks from time to time.
My preview of this series opener is below and includes the latest MLB odds, a head-to-head comparison of Hendricks and Rodriguez and my Blue Jays at Cubs predictions and picks.
Blue Jays at Cubs Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 9.5 -112/-108 | -1.5 +160 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-125 | 9.5 -112/-108 | +1.5 -192 |
Blue Jays at Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kyle Hendricks (CHC) | Stat | RHP Yariel Rodriguez (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-10 | W-L | 1-5 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 6.60/4.88 | ERA /xERA | 3.53/3.84 |
| 5.30/4.43 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86/4.33 |
| 1.45 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 9.6% | K-BB% | 11.3% |
| 44% | GB% | 40.7% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 105 | Location+ | 96 |
Blue Jays at Cubs Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Where has the Offense Gone?
Hendricks isn't the same pitcher he once was. The veteran righty has an Average Exit Velocity under 86 mph and an above average Hard-Hit Rate. His Barrel Rate is decent, but not as strong as Rodríguez’s. Hendricks is walking about 7% of batters, which isn't much, but he also only strikes out 16.5%. Hendricks will keep the ball on the ground, but for the most part, the Jays elevate the baseball, which could cause issues for Hendricks on a windy day at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs have an 84 wRC+ off of righties in the past month. They also have a walk rate above 9% and a strikeout rate of 20%. Among players with more than 10 plate appearances against righties, the Cubs have four batters with a xwOBA above .320 over the past month.
In relief, the Cubs have a 3.89 xFIP, a 23.5% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate. They also only have three arms with an xFIP under 4.00.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Vlad Jr. On Fire
Rodríguez has a 3.60 ERA and a 3.84 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is above average and his Hard-Hit Rate hovers around league average. He strikes out an above average number of hitters (24.3%), but walks over 11% of the batters he faces. That could become an issue because some batters in the Cubs’ lineup are patient. However, they have not hit particularly well, so Rodríguez is in control of his own fate.
The Blue Jays have a 110 wRC+, a 7.3% walk rate and a 22.6% strikeout rate against righties in the past month. Losing Justin Turner at the deadline hampered this team’s offensive production, but they still have Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has an absurd .554 xwOBA off of righties in the past month. The Jays only have a couple other batters with an xwOBA over .320, so Guerrero Jr. will need a big day to help the Jays win this one.
The Jays’ bullpen has a 4.86 xFIP in the past month with a 19.4% strikeout rate and a 12.5% walk rate. The Jays do have three arms in relief with an xFIP under 4.00, so if Rodríguez can go five, they have a few effective options behind him.
Blue Jays at Cubs Predictions, Betting Analysis
The Cubs' offense hasn't been what the team envisioned at the beginning of the year. Rodríguez can miss some bats, and Hendricks may have trouble keeping the ball on the ground against Toronto with the wind blowing out. Bet the Jays to win this one as they have a slight edge in starting pitching.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline | Play to -120 |
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