The Philadelphia Phillies host the Chicago Cubs on April 15, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Phillies are favored by -140 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cubs are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction
- Cubs vs Phillies Pick: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110) | Play to -110
My Cubs vs Phillies best bet is on Jesus Luzardo to go over his strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Phillies Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +120 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -140 |
- Cubs vs Phillies spread: +1.5 (-170), – 1.5 (-140)
- Cubs vs Phillies over/under: 8.5 (-120 / +100)
- Cubs vs Phillies moneyline: Cubs +120, Phillies -140
Cubs vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| Shota Imanaga (LHP) | Stat | Jesus Luzardo (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 2.81/2.71 | ERA /xERA | 6.23 |
| 2.23/2.96 | FIP / xFIP | 2.82 |
| 0.81 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 26.7 | K-BB% | 31 |
| 22.2 | GB% | 52.2 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 116 | Location+ | 97 |
Cubs vs Phillies Preview
We have seen an offensive barrage in this series as the Cubs and Phillies totaled 20 runs in Game 1 and then followed it up with 14 more last night. Each team has taken one of the high-scoring affairs, but tonight's matchup is going to have a very different look to it.
Jesus Luzardo is the biggest positive regression candidate on the slate, as through three starts, he holds a 6.23 ERA. However, he has pitched much better than his ERA portrays.
Luzardo holds a 1.72 xFIP and 2.82 xERA. His struggles have come when he's fallen behind in counts, and he's done so far too often as he holds a 56.3 percent first pitch strike rate according to Handigraphs.
Although when he's gotten ahead of hitters, he's put them away at an elite rate. Luzardo has a 36.6 percent strikeout rate, a 34.9 percent CSW, and a 31 per strikeout minus walk rate.
Those numbers show that when he gets ahead in the count, opposing hitters have not fought drawn walks, and over a third of the time, go back to the dugout without putting the ball in play.
The Cubs are primed to follow those trends, as while they have made plenty of hard contact, they have also struck out a ton. Chicago comes into this matchup holding the seventh-highest strikeout rate against lefties and is below average in contact rate and chase rate.
Cubs vs Phillies Picks
Luzardo has gone over his strikeout total in all three of his starts, and there are no signs of him slowing down in his fourth one tonight. The Cubs have the potential to do damage in spurts, but overall have a tendency to whiff a lot.
Aside from the matchup, what also makes this over a great play is the need for Luzardo to give the Phillies length. With Aaron Nola only going five innings last night, Philly used four arms over the final four innings, and three of them struggled pitch count-wise.
Luzardo will have the opportunity to be out there, and as long as he's getting ahead of hitters, we should see the strikeouts rack up in a hurry.
Pick: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110) | Play to -110
