The Cubs are climbing back toward the .500 mark as they sit at 59-60 with a trip to Cleveland to face the AL Central-leading Guardians on Monday night at Progressive Field.
The Guardians stubbed their toes to start August with a season-high seven-game losing streak, but they salvaged the final two games in Minnesota to extend their lead over the Twins to 3 1/2 games heading into Monday.
The Cubs-Guardians series opener features a starting pitching matchup between left-hander Shota Imanaga and right-hander Ben Lively. You can find my Cubs vs Guardians prediction and moneyline pick — plus the latest Monday MLB odds — in my preview below.
Cubs vs Guardians Prediction
Kevin Rogers's best bet: Guardians Moneyline (+105; Caesars Sportsbook)
Cubs vs Guardians Odds
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-125 | 8 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +140 |
| Cleveland Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 8 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -165 |
Probable Starting Pitchers for Cubs vs Guardians
| LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Stat | RHP Ben Lively (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-2 | W-L | 10-7 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.06/3.35 | ERA /xERA | 3.59/3.70 |
| 3.40/3.70 | FIP / xFIP | 4.75/4.53 |
| 1.05 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 22.0% | K-BB% | 12.9% |
| 34.6% | GB% | 38.8% |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 69 |
| 104 | Location+ | 103 |
Cubs-Guardians Weather Report
Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Preview
Cubs Betting Preview: Imanaga Looks Impressive On F5 ML
The Cubs had Sunday off following a two-game sweep of the White Sox. They're 8-2 in their past 10 contests.
Craig Counsell's team sits three games out of the final wild-card spot in the National League, so this run is coming at a perfect time for the Cubs, who will continue a 14-game stretch against American League foes.
The Cubs return to Wrigley Field to face Toronto and Detroit following this series in Cleveland as rookie ace Shota Imanaga takes the ball in the series opener.
Imanaga has been impressive in his first season. The Cubs have won 17 of his 21 starts, including seven of his nine outings away from Wrigley.
The southpaw delivered seven innings of two-hit ball for the second time since the All-Star break in last Tuesday's 7-3 home victory over the Twins, which included 10 strikeouts.
Imanaga has cashed the over on his strikeout prop in five of his last six starts, as Monday's prop sits at 5.5 shaded towards the under.
Since July 3, the Cubs have posted an incredible 20-9-4 record in the first five innings, as seven losses came when Chicago didn't score a run. Imanaga owns a 7-1-2 mark in the first five innings in his past 10 starts, including four straight wins on the road.
Guardians Betting Preview: Crushing Series Openers
The Guardians saved face by capturing the final two games at Minnesota to end their long losing streak as Cleveland hopes to build a winning streak before taking on the Brewers and Yankees on the road.
Cleveland owns a 5-2 record in its last seven series openers in the first five innings, including a 3-1 mark at Progressive Field.
Ben Lively has put together a career season after bouncing around in the KBO for a few seasons before spending last season in Cincinnati.
Lively has won 10 decisions, as the Guardians were 10-5 in his first 15 starts before going 2-3 in his last five trips to the mound.
The right-hander went four consecutive starts by allowing two runs or less before giving up four runs in his last outing against Arizona in a 7-3 defeat.
Three Cleveland starters — Lively, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen — have won the first five innings at least 12 times. The only other team in baseball to accomplish this feat is Philadelphia, as Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Ranger Suarez have all led at least 12 times through five innings.
The Guardians have bounced back nicely off a loss in Lively's last start as Cleveland has posted a 6-1 mark in his next outing following a defeat in his previous trip to the mound.
Cubs vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
The line has swung in Chicago's favor after opening up as a pick-em thanks to Imanaga's recent success.
It doesn't say much that the Cubs beat the White Sox twice over the weekend, but Chicago has played better lately.
Cleveland returns home after getting swept by Arizona in its last series at Progressive Field, so look for the Guardians to play better here, especially after the two wins on Saturday and Sunday over the Twins.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+105, DraftKings) | Play to Moneyline (+100)
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Moneyline
The Guardians have lost five consecutive home games and don't return to Progressive Field until August 23 following this series. This will likely be the only game in which Cleveland is an underdog against Chicago, so take the value with them at plus money, even against Imanaga.
Run Line (Spread)
The Cubs are hot from the run-line standpoint at 9-1 in the last 10 games, but four of their last five losses have come by two runs or more. The Guardians have not been good at +1.5 as 10 of their past 12 losses since the All-Star break came at least two runs.
Over/Under
Cleveland was riding a 6-0 over streak but has returned to unders recently with a 3-1-1 stretch over the past five games. Chicago is amid a 7-3 over run the past 10 games, while Imanaga is 3-0 to the over in his past three outings.
