Reds vs. White Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - April 13, 2024

Reds at White Sox

6:10 pm • NBCS-CHI

Cincinnati Reds

9-11

5 - 0

Chicago White Sox

6-13

pitcher		team	era	w-l
G.Crochet			3.58	6-12
N.Lodolo			4.76	9-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 9-11	-1.5+130	o7.5-115	-130
White Sox 6-13	+1.5-155	u7.5-105	+110

Saturday 6:10 p.m.

April 13, 2024

Rate FieldChicago

N. Lodolo o6.5 Ks+104

0.52u

G.Crochet o16.5 Outs-115

1.15u

G.Crochet o6.5 Ks-136

CWS +100 (F5)

G.Crochet u6.5 Ks+110

0.5u

Ballpark pal predicts 5.87 Ks and +EV with devig odds of -123 giving is value at this number

Over 8-105

$105.00

Harj POD

CIN -120

$50.00

CWS +109

CIN -1.5+135

1.35u

Featured Insight
The Reds have scored 6.3 runs per game over the last week -- fourth highest in MLB (6 games). The White Sox have allowed 5.8 runs per game over the last week -- tied for fourth highest in MLB (6 games).

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Featured Insight
White Sox have won 57% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since the 2022 season -- tied for fifth best in MLB. Reds have won just 45% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since the 2022 season -- seventh worst in MLB.

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Our 3 MLB Best Bets for Saturday
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The Reds are just 26-12 (.684) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .791.

68% of Paul DeJong fastball strikeouts are elevated since the 2022 season -- 10th highest among hitters with at least 502 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. 66% of Nick Lodolo fastball strikeouts are elevated since the 2022 season -- 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP-- 90th Percentile.

Luis Robert has 24 home runs on breaking pitches since the 2022 season -- 11th most in MLB-- 98th Percentile. Nick Lodolo has thrown his curveball 32% of the time since the 2022 season -- tied for seventh highest among starting pitchers with at least 134 total CB-- 95th Percentile.

Garrett Crochet has allowed an OBP of just .179 (67 PA's) this season -- 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 -- 98th Percentile.

Garrett Crochet's has 15 strikeouts and no walks against right-handed batters this season -- tied for best K:BB ratio among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.4 -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (157/515) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 50% -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
White Sox are 34-47 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of White Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of White Sox' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
White Sox	68-93	34-46	34-47	5-3	63-90
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
White Sox	66-86-9	31-46-3	35-40-6	4-3-1	62-83-8
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
White Sox	41-121	23-57	18-63	5-3	36-117
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 12th	CIN	L 1-11	+1.5 L	O 9.5	CIN +148
Apr 10th	@CLE	L 6-7	+1.5 W	O 7.5	CLE +215
Apr 9th	@CLE	W 7-5	+1.5 W	O 8.5	CWS +202
Apr 8th	@CLE	L 0-4	+1.5 L	U 8	CLE +197
Apr 7th	@KC	L 3-5	+1.5 L	U 9	KC +110

Ky Bush
P
Bush is out with elbow
Out
Drew Thorpe
P
Thorpe is out with elbow
Out

Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K
LN.Lodolo, P	91	5.2	10
RF.Cruz, P	12	1.1	3
LB.Suter, P	40	2	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.India, DH	0-3	1	0
2S.Steer, LF	1-3	0	3
3C.Encarnacion-Strand, 1B	0-4	0	0
4J.Candelario, 3B	1-4	1	0
5S.Fairchild, RF	1-4	1	0
6E.De La Cruz, SS	0-3	0	0
7S.Espinal, 2B	0-2	1	0
8L.Maile, C	1-3	1	2
9B.Thompson, CF	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LG.Crochet, P	92	4.2	10	5
RD. García, P	19	1.1	2	0
RD.Leone, P	12	1	1	0
RJ.Leasure, P	16	1	2	0
RM.Kopech, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Grossman, LF	1-3	0	0	0
2A.Vaughn, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
3G.Sheets, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4K.Pillar, RF	1-2	0	0	0
5L.Sosa, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6P.DeJong, SS	0-2	0	0	0
6N.Lopez, PH	0-2	0	0	0
6N.Lopez, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
7Z.Remillard, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
7B.Shewmake, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7B.Shewmake, SS	0-1	0	0	0
8D.Fletcher, CF	0-2	0	0	0
9M.Maldonado, C	0-3	0	0	0