Rangers vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - June 14, 2026

I switched to 0.5u as my base unit for tracking purposes last year. The main reason was simply to lower the threshold for what gets elevated to an official play, which has naturally led to a lot more volume. If you’ve noticed, I’ve averaged 100+ plays per month since NFL season wrapped up. So when I label something as a full-unit play these days, that’s really the equivalent of a 2-unit play under my old system. I don’t do that very often, but I like this one enough to make an exception. Here’s why: Early is a bit of a sell-high candidate right now. He’s averaged 6.3 Ks over his last 6 starts, but my expected K model had him closer to 5.2 over that span, more than a full strikeout lower. A lot of that gap comes from opponents chasing at a 36% rate. Anytime hitters are expanding the zone that often, a pitcher is naturally going to run closer to his strikeout ceiling. The problem is that kind of chase rate is difficult to sustain, and once hitters become more disciplined, the strikeouts tend to come down quickly. Interestingly, Early had the opposite thing happening earlier in the season when hitters were taking too many strikes in the zone against him. It feels like teams may have overcorrected and become a bit too aggressive. The Rangers profile as the type of team that could bring things back toward league average. They’re middle of the pack in plate discipline and should be more balanced in both attacking strikes and laying off pitches outside the zone. If Early starts seeing a more typical approach from opposing hitters, his underlying metrics don’t really support the 23% K rate he’s posted recently. My numbers have him closer to a 20.5% true-talent strikeout pitcher right now. The lineup construction also works against him. Early has shown pretty extreme platoon splits and Texas is only sending two lefties to the plate today, which subtly lowers his strikeout expectation. It also helps that Cody Freeman is in the lineup. He only has a handful of plate appearances this season, but he’s the type of hitter who is very difficult to strike out. I have him around a 15.5% expected K rate, so anytime he’s in the lineup it makes Texas just a bit tougher to punch out. I’m projecting Early closer to -165 to stay under 5.5 strikeouts. We are getting it at plus odds - full unit play.