Orioles vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 6, 2025

Povich’s ERA at 6.07, WHIP 1.69 – allows 1.3 hits/inning, 6 HR in 29.2 IP. Last 3 starts: ERA 6.75. Orioles’ bullpen even worse – 7.82 ERA over last 3 games, 22 ER in 25.1 IP. Twins average 4.86 R/9 at home. Past matchup with Povich still saw 9 runs. López brings a 2.25 ERA, but O’s hit .247 vs righties, scoring 4.87 R/9 – strong matchup edge. Orioles also dropped 11 on KC recently – offense heating up. Twins’ bullpen slipping too: 4.94 ERA, 1.44 WHIP last 3 games. Over has hit in 5 of last 8 H2Hs. Recent scores: 9-2, 11-3, 7-4, 7-2. Twins hit .278 last 10 games with two 11-run wins. Even if starters deal, pens can’t hold it. Too much firepower, too little relief.

Although Lopez isn't a big strikeout rate guy, he's relatively efficient with his pitches due to a low walk rate, which allows him to go deep in games. Orioles' active roster has a 23.3% strikeout rate against righties this year. Pitchers projected in a range similar to Lopez for me have gone over 5.5 strikeouts 59.5% of the time, clearing the implied odds of 56.9% at -132.