Mariners vs. Athletics Odds & Betting Predictions - September 4, 2024

Mariners at Athletics

1:40 am • ROOT Sports NW
2 - 3
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
J.T. Ginn logoJ.GinnAthletics logo4.241-1
Luis Castillo logoL.CastilloSeattle Mariners logo3.6411-12

Mariners at Athletics Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mariners
0-0
-1.5
-1.5+103
o8.5-114
-161
Athletics
0-0
u7.5
+1.5-123
u8.5-108
+135
location pinWednesday 1:40 a.m.
September 04, 2024
Oakland ColiseumOakland
Mariners vs. Athletics Expert Picks
Picks  Office
Picks Office
71d ago
Last 30d: 89-113-3 (-31.5u)
Over 7.5-115
1u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Luis Castillo, the Seattle ace whose season has been one of two pitchers: one whose surface stats-government 3.65 ERA-point to dependability, another whose underlying metrics told a different tale. A 3.98 FIP for Castillo and an even higher xFIP of 4.12 would suggest his real ERA may well not be that sustainable, that he has been at the very least somewhat fortunate in keeping his current numbers where they are. The HR/FB ratio of 14.2 percent is just a shade above league average, indicating that a fairly large percentage of the fly balls he allows have turned into home runs. That fact in itself becomes that much more concerning when his hard contact rate came in at 39.1 percent, well over league average. This means that when hitters do connect with Castillo's pitches, they are often hitting them hard for more extra-base hits and home run potential. As a plus, Castillo's BABIP of .278 is below the league average, which indicates he has been lucky with balls in play, bound for some regression to the mean. With Oakland coming off that come-from-behind win and boasting a power threat in Shea Langeliers, who homered twice and sent in the walk-off in last night's affair. The Mariners, who have seen Castillo's xFIP and hard contact rates tick up in the second half, may need to prepare for another difficult start. The young right-hander Castillo faces Oakland's J.T. Ginn, who is making just his second major league start. Ginn struggled in his major league debut - he allowed four earned runs over five innings to the erratic Cincinnati sluggers. A 4.76 SIERA and an 8.4% K-BB% are ominous warning signs that he's well away from being sharpened at this level. Those numbers indicate Ginn struggles to put hitters away while allowing too much traffic on the bases-a dangerous combination against a Mariners team that, while offensively scuffling, is still capable of catching a young pitcher making mistakes. Ginn's xSLG of .442, combined with a barrel rate of 9.1%, demonstrate that hitters are squaring up fairly well against him, something that ordinarily would translate to extra-base hits or a homer. His sinker-heavy, slider-heavy pitch mix-coming in at 53.5% and 27.6%, respectively-might simply not be good enough to stymie Seattle's lineup, mainly if they remain patient and can wait for a pitch caught in the zone. The Mariners will probably look to jump on Ginn early-particularly with their playoff hopes dwindling and every game taking on new importance-led by power-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh, who notched his 28th home run in the series opener. In fact, both bullpens have serious concerns, especially in holding leads or keeping games close late. Seattle's bullpen has been inconsistent, posting an xFIP of 4.26 and a high leverage ERA of 5.12-not exactly the type of outings you would think they would have when it counted most. With a super high LOB% of 71.8%, their inability to strand runners has them coming in under league average and could very easily make way for a deluge of runs in the latter innings. Plus, the Mariners' pen has been fighting some fatigue, as evidenced by Andrés Muñoz's 13 hits and 11 earned runs over his last 15.2 innings of work, and Tayler Saucedo posting a WHIP of 1.48 - showing he can allow a bunch of base runners. On the other hand, the Oakland bullpen comes in with an xFIP of 4.58 and an ERA in high-leverage situations of 5.46. They also have had comparable problems stranding runners, with a LOB% of 68.9%, as the Athletics' bullpen has been filled with inconsistent relievers, one of which being Garrett Holman, who has struggled to the tune of a 7.20 ERA over his last 7 innings and a WHIP of 2.60, indicating he's putting far too many men on base. In the majority of such shaky bullpen performances-especially in a high-leverage situation-later in the game, both teams are likely to see more runs cross the plate, hence making the over a very attractive option.
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
72d ago
Last 30d: 49-72-3 (-9.0u)
Over 7.5-115
0.58u
Bet to 8 (-107)
Boomer Betz
Boomer Betz
72d ago
Last 30d: 160-161-1 (+19.5u)
SEA -149
1u

PRO Insights

Mariners logo

Mariners

SEA Insights
  • Mariners logoThe Mariners have allowed just 2.2 runs per game in the first five innings since last season -- lowest in MLB (299 games). The Athletics have scored just 2.2 runs per game in the first five innings since last season -- second lowest in MLB (299 games).
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Athletics logo

Athletics

ATH Insights
  • Athletics logoOpponents have a hard-hit rate of just 28% against the Athletics RPs over the last two weeks -- best in MLB. Mariners hitters have a hard-hit rate of just 33% over the last two weeks -- third worst in MLB.
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Mariners vs. Athletics Previews & Analysis

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Mariners vs. Athletics Notes

Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Mariners vs. Athletics Public Betting Percentages

79%

Bets%

21%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Athletics
86-7644-3742-399-1276-64
Mariners
74-8838-4336-4547-6226-26

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Athletics
78-83-139-4239-41-110-1168-71-1
Mariners
76-76-1031-45-545-31-550-55-425-21-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Athletics
69-9338-4331-5013-855-85
Mariners
85-7749-3236-4562-4723-29

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Sep 2ndSEAW 5-4+1.5 WO 7ATH +120
Sep 1st@TEXL 4-6+1.5 LO 9TEX +110
Aug 31st@TEXL 2-3+1.5 WU 8.5TEX +141
Aug 31st@TEXW 9-2+1.5 WO 8.5ATH +114
Aug 29th@CINL 9-10+1.5 WO 10.5CIN +114

Athletics vs. Mariners Injury Updates

Athletics Injuries

  • Miguel Andujar
    OF

    Andujar is out with abdominal

    Out

  • Luis Medina
    P

    Medina is out with elbow

    Out

  • Esteury Ruiz
    OF

    Ruiz is out with wrist

    Out

  • Ken Waldichuk
    P

    Waldichuk is out with elbow

    Out

Mariners Injuries

  • Sam Haggerty
    OF

    Haggerty is out with achilles

    Out

Mariners vs. Athletics Box Score
Mariners Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Luis Castillo logoRL.Castillo, P99752
Troy Taylor logoRT. Taylor, P12120
Trent Thornton logoRT.Thornton, P210.111
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
J.P. Crawford logo1J.Crawford, SS1-4100
Julio Rodriguez logo2J.Rodriguez, CF1-4100
Cal Raleigh logo3C.Raleigh, DH2-4002
Randy Arozarena logo4R.Arozarena, LF0-3000
Luke Raley logo5L.Raley, 1B0-3000
Justin Turner logo5J.Turner, PH0-1000
Justin Turner logo5J.Turner, 1B0-1000
Jorge Polanco logo6J.Polanco, 2B0-2000
Victor Robles logo7V.Robles, RF0-2000
Mitch Garver logo8M.Garver, C0-2000
Josh Rojas logo9J.Rojas, 3B1-2000
Dylan Moore logo9D.Moore, PH0-1000
Dylan Moore logo9D.Moore, 3B0-1000
Athletics Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
J.T. Ginn logoRJ.Ginn, P88672
Hogan Harris logoLH.Harris, P37330
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Lawrence Butler logo1L.Butler, RF1-4111
Brent Rooker logo2B.Rooker, DH1-4000
JJ Bleday logo3J.Bleday, CF0-3100
Shea Langeliers logo4S.Langeliers, C1-4000
Seth Brown logo5S.Brown, LF3-4112
Zack Gelof logo6Z.Gelof, 2B0-3000
Tristan Gray logo7T.Gray, 1B0-2000
Max Schuemann logo8M.Schuemann, 3B0-3000
Jacob Wilson logo9J.Wilson, SS0-3000

Mariners vs. Athletics Odds Comparison

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Mariners at Athletics Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Mariners
0-0
o4.5-120
u4.5-110
Athletics
0-0
o3.5-105
u3.5-125