Giants vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - September 18, 2024
Giants at Orioles
10:35 pm • MASN2Starting Pitchers
pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
---|---|---|---|---|
D.Kremer | 4.10 | 8-10 | ||
H.Birdsong | 4.75 | 5-6 |
Giants at Orioles Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Giants 0-0 | +1.5-149 | o8-109 | +140 | |
Orioles 0-2 | -1.5+124 | u8-111 | -166 |
Wednesday 10:35 p.m.
September 18, 2024Oriole Park at Camden YardsBaltimore
Giants vs. Orioles Expert Picks
Picks Office
55d ago
Last 30d: 82-114-3 (-39.0u)
SF +140
1.4u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
Hayden Birdsong, despite limited MLB experience, brings an intriguing arsenal that could be a difference-maker in this matchup. His 111 Stuff+ rating highlights his raw ability, with a knack for generating strikeouts, evidenced by his 27.2% K-rate in the majors and 34.4% in the minors. Though his command can be erratic (14.4% walk rate), Birdsong's recent outing against the Brewers suggests he may be turning a corner. In that performance, Birdsong posted impressive metrics: 112 Stuff+, 101 Location+, and 107 Pitching+, going 5 innings, allowing only 2 hits and 0 runs. His ability to mix pitches effectively—particularly his elite changeup (155 Stuff+), slider (120), and curveball (115)—should help him neutralize a Baltimore offense that's been struggling in the second half of the season. Although Birdsong's fastball shape has been hittable (.444 xwOBA), the Orioles' lineup ranks only 21st in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since the trade deadline. This suggests Birdsong may not be overly punished for his weaknesses.
Dean Kremer, meanwhile, has been steady but unspectacular, with a 4.48 xERA and a middling 98 Pitching+ in 2024. Projection systems suggest he's only marginally better than Birdsong, and his 12.6% K-BB% leaves much to be desired. With Birdsong's ability to generate swings and misses, the gap between these two starters isn't as wide as it appears on paper. The Giants’ bullpen ranks among the top 5 in expected FIP and holds the 4th-best botERA in the league. While Baltimore's bullpen is statistically better, they've posted a concerning 8.61 ERA over the last three games, suggesting recent volatility could be a problem.
Offensively, both teams have struggled down the stretch, with the Orioles sporting a 96 wRC+ since the trade deadline and the Giants at an even lower 88 against righties. However, given Baltimore’s sub-.500 second-half record and their recent bullpen struggles, this feels like a game where San Francisco's edge in the pitching department, both in the starting matchup and bullpen, could be decisive.
Top Shelf Action 🥃
55d ago
Last 30d: 211-223-1 (-0.6u)
Under 8-115
1u
Signal of the Day
Sean Zerillo
55d ago
Last 30d: 54-76-3 (-8.6u)
SF +157
0.79u
Bet to +140
PRO Insights
Orioles
BAL Insights
- Featured InsightOrioles RPs have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Giants have struck out 26% over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB.
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Giants vs. Orioles Previews & Analysis
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Giants vs. Orioles Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Orioles are 46-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Orioles' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Orioles' 81 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Giants vs. Orioles Injury Updates
Giants Injuries
- Robbie RayP
Ray is out with hamstring
Out
- Wilmer FloresIF
Flores is out with knee
Out
- Jordan HicksP
Hicks is out with shoulder
Out
- Kyle HarrisonP
Harrison is out with shoulder
Out
- Keaton WinnP
Winn is out with elbow
Out
- Jung Hoo LeeOF
Lee is out with shoulder
Out
Orioles Injuries
- Jorge MateoIF
Mateo is out with elbow
Out
- Grayson RodriguezP
Rodriguez is out with back
Out
- Tyler WellsP
Wells is out with elbow
Out
Giants vs. Orioles Box Score
Giants Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RH.Birdsong, P | 96 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 | |
LE.Miller, P | 10 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | |
RS.Hjelle, P | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
RT.Rogers, P | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
RR.Walker, P | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1M.Yastrzemski, RF | 1-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2L.Wade, 1B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3H.Ramos, LF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
4M.Conforto, DH | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5T.Fitzgerald, SS | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
6G.McCray, CF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7C.Schmitt, 3B | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
8D.Walton, 2B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9C.Casali, C | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Orioles Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RD.Kremer, P | 86 | 6 | 7 | 4 | |
LG.Soto, P | 12 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | |
RM.Bowman, P | 19 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | |
RJ.Webb, P | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1G.Henderson, SS | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2C.Mullins, CF | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
3A.Santander, RF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4H.Kjerstad, DH | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5C.Cowser, LF | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
6R.O'Hearn, 1B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
7E.Rivera, 3B | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
8J.Holliday, 2B | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
8A.Slater, PH | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8L.Soto, 2B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9J.McCann, C | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
9A.Rutschman, PH | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Giants vs. Orioles Odds Comparison
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Giants at Orioles Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Giants 0-0 | o3.5+100 | u3.5-130 |
Orioles 0-2 | o4.5+110 | u4.5-140 |