Giants vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - September 18, 2024

Giants at Orioles

10:35 pm • MASN2
5 - 3
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Dean Kremer logoD.KremerBaltimore Orioles logo4.108-10
Hayden Birdsong logoH.BirdsongSan Francisco Giants logo4.755-6

Giants at Orioles Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Giants
0-0
+1.5-149
o8-109
+140
Orioles
0-2
-1.5+124
u8-111
-166
location pinWednesday 10:35 p.m.
September 18, 2024
Oriole Park at Camden YardsBaltimore
Giants vs. Orioles Expert Picks
Picks  Office
Picks Office
63d ago
Last 30d: 95-107-0 (-20.0u)
SF +140
1.4u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Hayden Birdsong, despite limited MLB experience, brings an intriguing arsenal that could be a difference-maker in this matchup. His 111 Stuff+ rating highlights his raw ability, with a knack for generating strikeouts, evidenced by his 27.2% K-rate in the majors and 34.4% in the minors. Though his command can be erratic (14.4% walk rate), Birdsong's recent outing against the Brewers suggests he may be turning a corner. In that performance, Birdsong posted impressive metrics: 112 Stuff+, 101 Location+, and 107 Pitching+, going 5 innings, allowing only 2 hits and 0 runs. His ability to mix pitches effectively—particularly his elite changeup (155 Stuff+), slider (120), and curveball (115)—should help him neutralize a Baltimore offense that's been struggling in the second half of the season. Although Birdsong's fastball shape has been hittable (.444 xwOBA), the Orioles' lineup ranks only 21st in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since the trade deadline. This suggests Birdsong may not be overly punished for his weaknesses. Dean Kremer, meanwhile, has been steady but unspectacular, with a 4.48 xERA and a middling 98 Pitching+ in 2024. Projection systems suggest he's only marginally better than Birdsong, and his 12.6% K-BB% leaves much to be desired. With Birdsong's ability to generate swings and misses, the gap between these two starters isn't as wide as it appears on paper. The Giants’ bullpen ranks among the top 5 in expected FIP and holds the 4th-best botERA in the league. While Baltimore's bullpen is statistically better, they've posted a concerning 8.61 ERA over the last three games, suggesting recent volatility could be a problem. Offensively, both teams have struggled down the stretch, with the Orioles sporting a 96 wRC+ since the trade deadline and the Giants at an even lower 88 against righties. However, given Baltimore’s sub-.500 second-half record and their recent bullpen struggles, this feels like a game where San Francisco's edge in the pitching department, both in the starting matchup and bullpen, could be decisive.
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
63d ago
Last 30d: 267-263-8 (+4.7u)
Under 8-115
1u
Signal of the Day
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
64d ago
Last 30d: 26-44-0 (-3.9u)
SF +157
0.79u
Bet to +140

PRO Insights

Orioles logo

Orioles

BAL Insights
  • Orioles logoOrioles RPs have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Giants have struck out 26% over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB.
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Giants vs. Orioles Previews & Analysis

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Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Giants vs. Orioles Public Betting Percentages

20%

Bets%

80%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Orioles
87-7541-4046-3561-5725-16
Giants
77-8537-4440-4134-4642-38

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Orioles
85-63-1440-32-945-31-560-45-1322-18-1
Giants
82-72-836-43-246-29-633-45-248-26-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Orioles
91-7144-3747-3468-5022-19
Giants
80-8242-3938-4345-3534-46

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Sep 17thSFL 0-10+1.5 LO 7.5SF +100
Sep 15th@DETL 2-4-1.5 LU 9DET -111
Sep 14th@DETW 4-2-1.5 WU 8BAL -142
Sep 13th@DETL 0-1-1.5 LU 8DET -132
Sep 11th@BOSL 3-5+1.5 LU 9.5BOS +116

Giants vs. Orioles Injury Updates

Giants Injuries

  • Robbie Ray
    P

    Ray is out with hamstring

    Out

  • Wilmer Flores
    IF

    Flores is out with knee

    Out

  • Jordan Hicks
    P

    Hicks is out with shoulder

    Out

  • Kyle Harrison
    P

    Harrison is out with shoulder

    Out

  • Keaton Winn
    P

    Winn is out with elbow

    Out

  • Jung Hoo Lee
    OF

    Lee is out with shoulder

    Out

Orioles Injuries

  • Jorge Mateo
    IF

    Mateo is out with elbow

    Out

  • Grayson Rodriguez
    P

    Rodriguez is out with back

    Out

  • Tyler Wells
    P

    Wells is out with elbow

    Out

Giants vs. Orioles Box Score
Giants Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Hayden Birdsong logoRH.Birdsong, P965.233
Erik Miller logoLE.Miller, P100.110
Sean Hjelle logoRS.Hjelle, P24110
Tyler Rogers logoRT.Rogers, P16110
Ryan Walker logoRR.Walker, P12110
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Mike Yastrzemski logo1M.Yastrzemski, RF1-5111
LaMonte Wade logo2L.Wade, 1B1-4000
Heliot Ramos logo3H.Ramos, LF1-4100
Michael Conforto logo4M.Conforto, DH3-4211
Tyler Fitzgerald logo5T.Fitzgerald, SS1-4100
Grant McCray logo6G.McCray, CF0-4000
Casey Schmitt logo7C.Schmitt, 3B1-3002
Donovan Walton logo8D.Walton, 2B0-4000
Curt Casali logo9C.Casali, C1-4000
Orioles Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Dean Kremer logoRD.Kremer, P86674
Gregory Soto logoLG.Soto, P120.210
Matt Bowman logoRM.Bowman, P191.120
Jacob Webb logoRJ.Webb, P16100
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Gunnar Henderson logo1G.Henderson, SS2-5000
Cedric Mullins logo2C.Mullins, CF0-5001
Anthony Santander logo3A.Santander, RF0-4000
Heston Kjerstad logo4H.Kjerstad, DH0-3000
Colton Cowser logo5C.Cowser, LF1-3100
Ryan O'Hearn logo6R.O'Hearn, 1B1-4001
Emmanuel Rivera logo7E.Rivera, 3B1-3100
Jackson Holliday logo8J.Holliday, 2B1-2100
Austin Slater logo8A.Slater, PH0-1000
Livan Soto logo8L.Soto, 2B0-1000
James McCann logo9J.McCann, C1-2001
Adley Rutschman logo9A.Rutschman, PH0-1000

Giants vs. Orioles Odds Comparison

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Giants at Orioles Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Giants
0-0
o3.5+100
u3.5-130
Orioles
0-2
o4.5+110
u4.5-140