Brewers vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - July 6, 2024

Brewers at Dodgers

11:15 pm • FOX

Milwaukee Brewers

24-25

3 - 5

Los Angeles Dodgers

30-19

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Paxton			4.09	1-1
F.Peralta			3.68	11-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 24-25	-1.5+150	o9+100	-108
Dodgers 30-19	+1.5-178	u9-120	-112

Saturday 11:15 p.m.

July 06, 2024

Dodger StadiumLos Angeles

LAD -110

0.91u

J.Paxton u4.5 Ks-118

1.02u

LAD -113

F.Freeman o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-130

MIL -105

$1750.00

MIL -105

1.05u

J.Paxton u4.5 Ks-115

0.87u

F.Peralta u17.5 Outs+150

1.5u

Trying this again - +150 is a great spot to take a stab at the under. Peralta under in 10/17, including 9/L13. The Dodgers are an ideal opponent for the under - of course they are capable of hitting (.736 OPS / 119 sOPS+ vs power pitchers), but they also see a lot of pitches. 3.96 per PA is third highest, with the third lowest chase rate. Peralta is at 4.18 per PA (4th highest), a 61.5% strike% (13th lowest), and a 48.2% zone% (129th of 147 pitchers with at least 50+ IP). Would play down to +120.

Under 8.5-109

Featured Insight
The Brewers have scored 3.4 runs per game in the first five innings over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB (7 games). The Dodgers have allowed 4.8 runs per game in the first five innings over the last week -- highest in MLB (6 games).

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Featured Insight
The Dodgers have answered-back in 36% of innings after an opponent scores this season -- tied for third highest in MLB. Brewers have allowed a run 35% of the time after an opposing score this season -- second highest in MLB.

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The Dodgers are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Teoscar Hernandez has struck out in 30% of PA's since last season -- eighth highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Trevor Megill has a strikeout rate of 32% since last season -- 10th highest among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

Teoscar Hernandez has struck out in 29% of PA's since the 2022 season -- tied for third highest in MLB-- third Percentile. Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 30% since the 2022 season -- seventh highest among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP-- 96th Percentile.

James Paxton has walked 36 of 279 right-handed batters (13%) this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 7% -- first Percentile.

James Paxton has an average spin rate of 1921.2 RPM on curveballs since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 2526.8 -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Dodgers are 0-5 in their last 5 games against the spread
Dodgers are 10-13 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 17 of Dodgers' 26 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	23-26	13-13	10-13	19-24	4-2
Brewers	26-23	13-11	13-12	15-9	10-14

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Dodgers	28-21	17-9	11-12	25-18	3-3
Brewers	17-29-3	8-15-1	9-14-2	8-15-1	9-13-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	30-19	18-8	12-11	27-16	3-3
Brewers	24-25	15-9	9-16	17-7	6-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 6th	MIL	W 8-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	LAD -216
Jul 5th	ARI	L 3-9	+1.5 L	O 8.5	ARI -113
Jul 4th	ARI	L 4-12	-1.5 L	O 9	ARI -205
Jul 3rd	ARI	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 9	LAD -187
Jun 30th	@SF	L 4-10	-1.5 L	O 8.5	SF -115

Jose Quintana
P
Quintana is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Easton McGee
SP
McGee is out with arm
Out
Blake Perkins
OF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Garrett Mitchell
OF
Mitchell is out with oblique
Out
Aaron Ashby
P
Ashby is out with oblique
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Michael Kopech
P
Kopech is out with arm
Out
Michael Grove
P
Grove is out with shoulder
Out
River Ryan
P
Ryan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out for season with shoulder
Out for Season
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out
Roki Sasaki
P
Sasaki is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	104	4	4	3
RB.Wilson, P	48	3	1	0
LB.Hudson, P	9	0.1	0	2
LR.Zastryzny, P	14	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chourio, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	1-2	1	0	0
3C.Yelich, LF	1-4	1	1	1
4W.Adames, SS	1-4	0	0	1
5S.Frelick, RF	0-4	0	0	0
6R.Hoskins, 1B	1-3	1	1	1
7B.Perkins, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8A.Monasterio, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
9B.Turang, 2B	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Paxton, P	83	5	3	2
RD.Hudson, P	13	1	1	0
RB.Treinen, P	11	1	1	0
RE.Phillips, P	19	1	1	1
LA.Vesia, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Ohtani, DH	2-2	2	1	1
2W.Smith, C	1-5	1	1	2
3F.Freeman, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
4T.Hernandez, LF	1-5	0	0	0
5A.Pages, RF	0-4	0	0	1
6J.Outman, CF	2-4	0	0	0
7M.Rojas, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8G.Lux, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8M.Vargas, PH	1-1	1	1	1
8E.Hernandez, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
9C.Taylor, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
9C.Taylor, 2B	0-4	0	0	0