Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - August 31, 2024

NRFI RECORDS L10 Gausman 6-4 López 8-2

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Minnesota Twins, in an AL Central dogfight, welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into town after getting a desperately needed day of rest. The Twins have not been playing great baseball lately, having lost eight out of their last ten and just being swept by the Atlanta Braves. But this game is a great opportunity for Minnesota to get things back on track, especially considering the pitching matchup favors them, and they will be at Target Field in front of their home crowd. Pablo López starts for the Twins coming off a really hot stretch, going 4-1 with an excellent 2.39 ERA in his last eight starts to show just how dominant he can be against most lineups. In his last start, he pitched seven scoreless innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, yielding just four hits and fanning nine. The fastball for López has been the best, in the 96th percentile of run value created-a reflection of how consistently it has limited damage. His peripherals support his broader success, with a 3.52 xERA and a 79th percentile ranking in average exit velocity allowed (87.7 mph), showing an ability to control games and limit hard contact. Beyond that, López's chase rate ranks in the 93rd percentile, which shows that he can get swings well outside of the strike zone, a premium in high-leverage situations. The counterpart for the Blue Jays, Kevin Gausman, has been effectively hot and cold to date at 12-9 with a 4.10 ERA. Although Gausman is coming off a strong start against the Angels, allowing just one run over seven innings, historical struggles against Minnesota cannot be ignored. For his career he is 1-4 with a 6.94 ERA against the Twins while earlier this season he was shelled for seven runs, six earned, on ten hits in just three innings by Minnesota. Indeed, Gausman has struggled against teams that have more experience against his four-seam, splitter-heavy approach. In fact, his average exit velocity allowed sits considerably higher than López's at 90.0 mph, which ranks in just the 20th percentile and indicates a greater vulnerability to hard contact. This is further supported by his 10.7% barrel rate, comfortably above López's 7.9%, showing that Gausman is more apt to yield dangerous hits that can change the momentum of a game. The Twins also have a big home-field advantage. Whereas their record at home is 37-29, the Blue Jays are 32-37 when traveling. What makes the Twins' ability to provide offense so important in this matchup is that Minnesota's offense goes to a whole different level at Target Field, averaging 5.26 runs with a batting average of .263 while Toronto can only average .231 and 4.18 runs on the road. Minnesota ranks 7th in MLB for runs per game and batting average, and 6th in OPS, showcasing a well-rounded and potent lineup. The Twins' bullpen has also been more surefire than Toronto's this year. Minnesota's relievers sport a 3.31 ERA, far surpassing Toronto's 3.95 mark. While the Twins bullpen has been scuffled lately, the main relievers have been quite dominant for the most part a guy like Griffin Jax and Cole Sands, two relatively low WHIPs that have prevented opponents from creating good scoring chances. This compares to a Toronto bullpen that has been much more susceptible to damage this season, particularly from a guy like Erik Swanson, who has a 6.51 ERA on the season.

Flat to -147