Angels vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - May 5, 2024

Angels at Guardians

5:40 pm • BSW

Los Angeles Angels

30-33

1 - 4

Cleveland Guardians

33-30

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Carrasco			5.64	3-10
G.Canning			5.19	6-13

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Angels 30-33	+1.5-162	o8-115	+130
Guardians 33-30	-1.5+136	u8-106	-155

Sunday 5:40 p.m.

May 05, 2024

Progressive FieldCleveland

CLE -1-110

1.82u

C.Carrasco u4.5 Ks-135

0.74u

Ballpark pal projects 3.84 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -175 giving value to this number

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-113

LAA +114

Cleveland already blew the division

C.Carrasco u15.5 Outs-120

1.2u

Under in 5/6. Not usually pushed past 90 pitches either (hasn’t happened this season, and was under 90 in 16/20 starts last year). Carrasco is 134th/145 in zone % amongst pitchers with 20+ IP, and is 95th in chase rate. Angels with the 7th lowest chase%, and the third highest pitches per PA. They will also likely have 5-6 lefties in the lineup today - Carrasco allowing a 1.021 OPS against lefties.

CLE -120

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to -140

Over 4.5 (F5)-122

1.22u

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Featured Insight
Guardians have struck out just 19% since last season -- lowest in MLB. Angels RPs have a strikeout rate of just 22% since last season -- fourth lowest in MLB.

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MLB NRFI Picks: Top 4 Bets For Sunday
Billy Ward•
May 5, 2024 UTC

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The Angels are just 97-42 (.698) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.

32% of Steven Kwan strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- 10th highest in MLB-- 91st Percentile. 42% of Jason Foley strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Griffin Canning has allowed an OPS of 1.221 (54 PA's) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .685 -- first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .393 (55-for-140) against Carlos Carrasco's inside fastball since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .261 -- 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.482 (218 PA's) when he's behind in the count since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 1.059 -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 16-17 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 13 of Guardians' 30 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	30-33	14-16	16-17	11-11	19-21
Angels	31-32	14-13	17-19	2-9	28-23

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	27-33-3	13-16-1	14-17-2	12-10	15-22-3
Angels	33-28-2	12-13-2	21-15	3-7-1	30-20-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	33-30	17-13	16-17	15-7	18-22
Angels	30-33	12-15	18-18	5-6	24-27

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 4th	LAA	W 7-1	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -130
May 3rd	LAA	L 0-6	-1.5 L	U 7.5	LAA -205
May 3rd	@HOU	L 2-8	+1.5 L	O 9	HOU +120
May 2nd	@HOU	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	CLE +154
May 1st	@HOU	L 9-10	+1.5 W	O 9	HOU +143

Ben Lively
P
Lively is out with elbow
Out
Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
John Means
P
Means is out with elbow
Out

Anthony Rendon
IF
Rendon is out with hip
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Canning, P	87	6	5	2
RA.Cimber, P	14	1	2	0
LM.Moore, P	20	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1N.Schanuel, 1B	0-4	0	0
2M.Moniak, CF	1-3	0	0
2K.Pillar, PH	0-1	0	0
2K.Pillar, CF	0-1	0	0
3T.Ward, LF	1-4	0	0
4W.Calhoun, DH	1-4	1	0
5B.Drury, 2B	0-4	0	0
6M.Thaiss, C	0-3	0	0
7J.Adell, RF	0-1	0	1
8C.Tucker, 3B	2-3	0	0
9Z.Neto, SS	1-2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Carrasco, P	71	6	3	1
RS.Barlow, P	16	1	2	0
LT.Herrin, P	9	1	0	0
RE.Clase, P	10	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Florial, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2A.Gimenez, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-3	2	1	2
4J.Naylor, 1B	2-4	1	1	2
5W.Brennan, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6R.Laureano, RF	0-3	0	0	0
7B.Naylor, C	0-2	0	0	0
8T.Freeman, CF	0-2	0	0	0
9G.Arias, SS	0-3	0	0	0