Mercury vs. Aces Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2025

Mercury at Aces

12:00 am • ESPN

Phoenix Mercury

5-4
86
86 - 89

Las Vegas Aces

7-3
89

Mercury at Aces Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mercury
5-4
+3
+3-112
o163.5-108
+135
Aces
7-3
u158.5
-3-108
u163.5-110
-160
location pinSaturday 12:00 a.m.
October 04, 2025
Michelob ULTRA ArenaParadise
Mercury vs. Aces Expert Picks
Boomer Betz
Boomer Betz
Last 30d: 131-112-2 (+31.5u)
PHX PK (Live)+142
1u
@KidPoker04
Brian Condon
Brian Condon
Last 30d: 4-7-0 (+1.2u)
A.Wilson u26.5 Pts-115
1.59u
Jim Turvey
Jim Turvey
Last 30d: 34-50-0 (-15.3u)
S.Sabally To Score 20+ Points Yes+220
0.3u
I CANT STOP BETTING ON SATOU
Allan Lem
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 117-99-6 (+5.1u)
A.Thomas u18.5 Rebs+Ast-115
0.58u
Just half a unit as I hate betting against AT, but RotoGrinders projections have her closer to 17.2 RA which I’m aligned with. She averaged 18 RA per game this season over 31.3 minutes per game and it’s likely she gets closer to 35 minutes here, but I also expect her to defend A’ja a lot so it’s a tougher individual matchup. Also worth noting this is a 7-game series so if there also happens to be a blowout (which I’m not predicting there will be), she’s not going to get full minutes so they can save her for Game 2. Just also something minor worth factoring in.
Joe Dellera
Joe Dellera
Last 30d: 18-34-0 (-5.3u)
S.Sabally o16.5 Pts+100
1u
The WNBA Finals start today and this has been a tougher matchup for Alyssa Thomas against A'ja Wilson. Sabally has really stepped up for Phoenix during this Playoff run and I expect that again tonight. Sabally is averaging 17.9 ppg during the Playoffs and is coming off three straight 20+ point games against the Lynx. Now she's got a few extra days of rest before this Aces matchup. She's 2/4 on this line against the Aces this season but maxed at 30 minutes. She has seen about a 4 minute uptick to her averages during the Playoffs which helps as well.
Scott Rickenbach
Scott Rickenbach
Last 30d: 70-72-2 (-11.8u)
Under 161.5-112
1u
Jim Turvey
Jim Turvey
Last 30d: 34-50-0 (-15.3u)
Over 159-114
0.35u
Moneyline Hacks
Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 113-125-4 (+30.7u)
Under 160-110
1u
🚨Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found on our Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/JrzjtqdVfA 🎙️Fade the Noise PODCAST - Subscribe!✅ https://www.youtube.com/@FadetheNoise 🔥50% OFF VIP!! ⬇️⬇️ (COPY & PASTE LINK): https://dubclub.win/r/p/pri-r744p/?checkout=1&coupon=ValueHacks50
Daniel Mataya
Daniel Mataya
Last 30d: 15-18-0 (-1.2u)
PHX +3.5-115
1u
Buckets

Mercury vs. Aces Previews & Analysis

  • Mercury vs Aces: WNBA Finals Game 1 Picks article feature image

    Mercury vs Aces: WNBA Finals Game 1 Picks

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    Oct 3, 2025 UTC
  • BET the Mercury to STEAL Game 1 Against the Aces! | WNBA Finals Best Bets | Buckets article feature image

    BET the Mercury to STEAL Game 1 Against the Aces! | WNBA Finals Best Bets | Buckets

    Dano Mataya
    Oct 3, 2025 UTC
  • Mercury vs Aces: Is the Wrong Team Favored? article feature image

    Mercury vs Aces: Is the Wrong Team Favored?

    Action Network Staff
    Oct 3, 2025 UTC
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Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Mercury vs. Aces Public Betting Percentages

Away Logo

Mercury

Public

Home Logo

Aces

63%

Bets%

37%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Aces
23-2111-1112-1018-155-6
Mercury
21-2312-109-1313-177-6

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Aces
21-2312-109-1316-175-6
Mercury
18-25-19-139-12-115-153-9-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Aces
7-3N/AN/A26-74-7
Mercury
5-4N/AN/A20-106-7

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Oct 1stINDW 107-98-8.5 WO 159LVA -400
Sep 28th@INDL 83-90-3 LO 161.5IND -160
Sep 26th@INDW 84-72-3.5 WU 162.5LVA -175
Sep 24thINDW 90-68-9 WU 164.5LVA -430
Sep 21stINDL 73-89-9 LU 165.5IND -425

Aces vs. Mercury Injury Updates

Aces Injuries

  • Chelsea Gray
    G

    Gray is out with leg

    Out

  • Cheyenne Parker-Tyus
    F

    Parker-Tyus is out with personal

    Out

  • A'ja Wilson
    C

    Wilson is out with wrist

    Out

Mercury Injuries

    Team Stats

    31-66 (47%)
    Field Goals
    33-72 (46%)
    10-13 (77%)
    Free Throws
    14-20 (70%)
    14-36 (39%)
    3P
    9-27 (33%)
    35
    Rebounds
    33
    20
    Assists
    24
    Turnovers
    4
    Steals
    9
    4
    Blocks
    3
    17
    Fouls
    12

    Mercury vs. Aces Odds Comparison

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    Mercury at Aces Team Totals

    MatchupOverUnder
    Mercury
    5-4
    o80.5-114
    u80.5-114
    Aces
    7-3
    o82.5-120
    u82.5-105