Lynx vs. Mercury Odds & Betting Predictions - May 13, 2026

Scoring has been way up across the WNBA through the first week of the 2026 season. Teams are playing at a much faster pace, roughly 4-5 more possessions per game, while also shooting far more efficiently. The market has correctly adjusted upward, which is why we’re seeing much higher totals across today’s three-game slate, but this is the matchup where I think things may have gone a bit too far. The Mercury have actually been playing at a bottom-3 pace so far, but they’ve been absolutely lights out shooting the ball, including making 48% of their 3s through two games. I do expect some regression there, which makes them a nice sell-high candidate. The Lynx will also still be without MVP candidate Napheesa Collier, and I think we see Nia Coffey play around 30 minutes again tonight, which is always good for the under no matter what year we are in. I’d be very careful blindly betting unders right now with scoring exploding league-wide, but even after factoring in many of the reasons for the high-scoring start, this feels like one of the first spots where the market may be overcorrecting a bit. I’m projecting this closer to 165.5. For context, this matchup probably would’ve been lined closer to 161.5 using last year’s league environment, so you can see how aggressively the market has adjusted, and mostly for good reason. But this feels like a decent sell-high spot for these two teams specifically.

Would play under 8.5 as well