Friday's Game 5 matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Las Vegas Golden Knights should be a fast-paced, high-event affair with a rare playoff total set at 7.
Check out my same game parlay for Oilers vs. Golden Knights Game 5 (10 p.m. ET, TNT), including picks for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid.
We're also targeting some game lines for these SGP as the Oilers look to grab a 3-2 lead in the series.
Same Game Parlay: Oilers vs. Golden Knights
The Parlay (+800 at Bet365)
- Edmonton Oilers moneyline, game total over 5.5
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins over 2.5 shots on goal
- Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots on goal
- Evan Bouchard over 0.5 points
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline & Game Total Over 5.5 (+140)
The Oilers have some notable edges that should allow them to grab a series lead on Friday.
If they are able to claim a win, it will likely be in somewhat high-scoring fashion. These two plays work well together as a result; 3-2 Oilers is the only reasonable scoreline that doesn't cash the over with our Oilers moneyline.
Laurent Brossoit had offered Vegas very stable play in goal down the stretch and in the playoffs thus far. He was injured in Game 3, and his for status tonight remains unclear. If he can't play, the Knights will likely go back to Adin Hill.
Hill is quite unproven at the NHL level, and he was not sharp in Game 4 while allowing four goals against.
Neither of those is a compelling option for shutting down the league's best offensive team. Especially since this is critical spot where we should see one of Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid on the ice 70% of the time.
Stuart Skinner has not been brilliant either, and it is safe to say that Vegas will find a way to generate two or more goals themselves.
Both teams will be without top defenders in Darnell Nurse and Alex Pietrangelo due to suspension.
Pietrangelo is likely the more concerning of the two losses, and they are likely not simply a wash. Pietrangelo has been the Knights' clear top defender this playoffs. He leads the team in time on ice, and he owns a 51.7% expected goals rating at even strength playing alongside Alec Martinez on the top pair.
Edmonton's power play has clicked at 44.1% this postseason and offers a massive edge in the special teams department, which should hold true moving forward.
If the Oilers can keep the play fairly competitive at even strength, their edge in goal and incredible power-play unit will provide great avenues to win this game.
Ryan Nugent Hopkins Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+125), Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-150)
Edmonton reunited the line of Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman ahead of Game 4, and the results were strong. They seem likely to remain together in Game 5, which sets the table for Nugent-Hopkins to record over 2.5 shots on goal again,and for McDavid to continue doing damage.
Playing alongside the game's best player in Game 4, Nugent-Hopkins broke through with a goal, an assist and four shots. In 36.4 minutes together this postseason, this combination has played to a 75% expected goal rating.
The absence of Alex Pietrangelo should help Edmonton's top trio spend more time working in the offensive zone creating chances.
This series has gotten a little out of control in terms of player safety, which was very evident at the end of Game 4. The referees in this contest will be fully aware of the prior ongoings, and I believe they will likely call this game very tightly while looking to help keep things in check.
An abundance of Oilers power plays would boost both of these shot props, as well as our next play with Evan Bouchard.
Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 Points
Bouchard has recorded 15 points in the opening 10 postseason games, and he managed a single point in nine of 10 matchups. If the Oilers are to win this contest in relatively high-scoring fashion, we can count on him being involved.
The key to his impressive recent point totals is the fact that he quarterbacks Edmonton's historically strong man-advantage unit.
It is also likely that Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft will lean upon Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm's unit more than normal at even strength with Nurse suspended.
