Saturday's NHL slate features three games that were all viable candidates to continue our single-game parlay piece. But when I really got to analyzing prices and considering options, it seemed hard to turn away from Game 6 between the Maple Leafs and Lightning.
All of the stars from each side have really shined in this series, and I think that will remain the case in this matchup. This game will most likely end up being a very back-and-forth battle with lots of action, which is exactly what we want to target with this type of longshot.
Single Game Parlay: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
The Parlay (+625 at bet365):
- William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
- Brayden Point Over 2.5 Shots on Goal & Over 0.5 points
- Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
The Maple Leafs' horrific recent results in the postseason have led to a ton of hate toward their core four offensive superstars. That hate has not been as warranted for Nylander.
Over the last three playoffs, he has generated at an elite rate with 22 points in 19 games.
Nylander has looked very dynamic throughout the opening five matchups of this series, in particular, and has been a handful for Lightning defenders to keep in check.
He has generated 20 shots on goal from 30 shot attempts in the series. His lowest single-game shot attempt total in the series (2) came in Toronto's blowout Game 2 win. It seems very unlikely that either side runs away with this one early, though.
Brayden Point Over 2.5 Shots on Goal & Over 0.5 Points
Point disappointed many bettors, such as myself, when he recorded just two shots and zero points in Tampa's Game 5 win. However, those marks came with a couple of caveats.
First, my belief is that Point actually had three shots on goal and a glancing save was not credited accurately. Second, he hit the inner post on a pretty look deep in the slot, which would have counted as both a goal and a third shot if it was a quarter-inch over.
His performance was perfectly fine and did not change my opinion that he remains one of the best big-game skaters in the NHL.
Tampa continues to skate with a stacked top line featuring Point, Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos. It found some depth scoring in Game 5, but I'm still firm in my belief that it will take a big performance from the top guys for it to win tonight.
Point generated 10 shots in the two home games earlier in the series, as Tampa clearly held more of the play than it did in Toronto. The last change is certainly favorable to the Bolts' top line in this matchup and was likely part of those higher shot rates.
Tampa's top unit has been thriving in matchups versus Toronto's second defensive pairing and fourth line but has been less effective going head-to-head with Toronto's top unit.
If you're going to stack all your top offensive scorers on one unit at even strength, it's only natural to find favorable offensive zone starts. Coach Jon Cooper seems likely to go with that strategy again tonight, which should help Point and Kucherov cash their legs.
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
As Point goes, Kucherov goes, and I fully expect the Lightning's dynamic duo to make a difference tonight. Kucherov has put 20 shots on goal throughout the first five games of the series and has cashed this over in three of those matchups.
As covered with Point, this matchup sets up perfectly for Kucherov to play a ton of minutes with lots of offensive zone starts.
If you wanted to take this longshot a step further, adding Point and Nylander to record over 0.5 points would be an option. However, I'm happy with our chances of cashing this look.
