Saturday's NHL slate features three very compelling elimination Game 6 matchups. We have got you covered with at least one pick for each game.
NHL Player Props for Saturday, April 29
Andrei Vasilevskiy Over 28.5 Saves
| Team vs. Team | Maple Leafs vs Lightning |
| Puck Drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel/DraftKings |
The Leafs will look to end an absurd streak of 11 consecutive losses in games with the opportunity to win the series Saturday in Tampa. I believe this contest could shape up a lot like last season's Game 6 and Game 7 battles, which saw Vasilevskiy steal the show.
Vasilevskiy was great in Game 5 in Toronto, while Ilya Samsonov looked extremely shaky. Those factors are key to this bet and could also help the William Nylander pick I have below this one hit.
What we want to target is a game script where Toronto must continue to push for offense and is unable to get anything by the Lightning netminder. If Samsonov lets in some softies and Toronto spends lots of time trailing tonight, that is even better for this.
Including overtime, the Leafs have averaged just 32.4 shots on goal per game in this series. In the grand scheme of this bet, that is not a positive statistic. However, I believe we will see Toronto play its best game of the series in Game 6 and find a way to put a ton of pressure on Vasilevskiy.
I am speculating the number here as goalie saves props tend to go up later in the day. I would play 30.5 down to -110, but not take this wager at 31.5. As of 12:30 p.m. ET, it's 28.5, so pounce now.
Pick: Vasilevskiy 29+ Saves (-113) |
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William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal -106
| Team vs. Team | Maple Leafs vs Lightning |
| Puck Drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
The Maple Leafs' horrific recent results in the postseason have led to a ton of hate towards their core four offensive superstars. That hate has not been as warranted for Nylander.
Over the last three playoffs, he has generated at an elite rate with 22 points in 19 games. Nylander has looked very dynamic throughout the opening five matchups of this series in particular, proving a handful for Lightning defenders to keep in check.
Nylander has generated 20 shots on goal from 30 shot attempts in the series. His lowest single-game shot attempt total in the series of two came in Toronto's blowout Game 2 win. It seems very unlikely that either side runs away with this one early, though.
Mika Zibanejad Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-129)
| Team vs. Team | Devils vs Rangers |
| Puck Drop | 8 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
The noise surrounding Mika Zibanejad's lack of production is reaching a fever pitch entering an elimination Game 6. Zibanejad has put up just two assists in the series, with a combined total of 11 shots on goal in five games.
I thought this was a great bet in Game 5 and from what we saw in that matchup, I like it more now. Zibanejad was more aggressive Thursday with five shot attempts and put three on target.
Zibanejad was stellar last postseason with 24 points in 20 games, with a whopping total of 63 shots on target. I'm willing to continue backing the idea that this is a low-water mark in terms of form and production, and fully believe his game does translate to the playoffs.
Zibanejad's slow start is holding this number up at an extremely playable price which we may not otherwise be offered. We should see him relied upon heavily at even strength in this win-or-go-home matchup, which helps our case here.
The Rangers power play is simply not going to run worse than it has the last three games either. If they're a little smoother, it should help Zibanejad's shot attempt average on the man advantage rise closer to what we've typically seen the last two seasons.
Backing Zibanejad to score at +195 is another very reasonable look. I also like sprinkling on him to record four shots on goal at +195 (FanDuel), and would even look at five shots at +410.
Evan Bouchard Anytime Goalscorer (+550) | Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100)
| Team vs. Team | Oilers vs Kings |
| Puck Drop | 10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel, bet365 |
Bouchard has been wildly productive over the last 10 games. He has put up 27 points in the last 24 games, with a total of seven goals in that span. In this series, he has already found the back of the net twice.
None of that is overly surprising considering his role and skill set. Bouchard has an incredible slapshot and also has the ability to get accurate wrist shots off quickly through traffic.
Being the quarterback on Edmonton's historically strong power play is one of the greatest roles any skater can find themselves in. The Oilers power play has clicked at an absurd 57.1% in this series.
Even with how well Bouchard shoots the puck, allowing his looks at the top is still the lesser of evils for the Kings.
Connor McDavid has proven this year how deadly his shot has become from the left flank. He is also incredibly strong at driving down low and finding either Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the bumper location or Leon Draisaitl's one-timer on the other side.
Those threats open up our guy Bouchard. By no means do I see how wagering on him to score is still out there at +550 with the kind of looks he continues to get in this series.
Bouchard being +100 to record three shots remains a good bet, as well.
Pick: Evan Bouchard Anytime Goal Scorer +550 |
