We have another loaded NHL slate on Monday with four Game 4s.
That also means there are plenty of NHL player props with betting value, so check out all five of my top picks for Monday's matchups below.
NHL Player Props for Monday, April 24
Dougie Hamilton Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155) · Any Time Goal Scorer (+430)
| Game | Devils vs. Rangers |
| Puck Drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings · FanDuel |
In the first three games of this series, Hamilton has been generating shot attempts at an absurd rate.
He has put up 24 shots, yet just five of those have actually reached the target. Even for a defender taking a ton of point shots through traffic like Hamilton, that's still an incredibly low mark actually reaching the target.
That's surely some of the reason over 2.5 is still hanging up at a playable number at DraftKings. If even 30% of those attempts hit the goal, Hamilton would have seven shots on target to suddenly make this a very popular bet.
Hamilton has had some very legitimate chances to score in that mix. Several times he has gotten some great looks when speedy Devils such as Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes and Timo Meier drive the play down low and find him following up.
On top of this beautiful overtime winner, Hamilton rang the iron in Game 3. Playing a smaller bet on him to net another makes a lot of sense at +430, as I believe Hamilton will be found on some similar looks in tonight's matchup.
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100)
| Game | Leafs vs. Lightning |
| Puck Drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 · DraftKings |
Tampa will skate in a gigantic Game 4 Monday on home ice, looking to avoid going into a 3-1 hole. Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point were extremely threatening in Game 3, and I expect that to continue tonight.
The Lightning have thrown a lot of eggs in one basket by stacking Steven Stamkos, Point and Kucherov on a stacked top unit at even strength thus far in this series.
Point is listed as questionable, but seeing as he looked good at the end of Game 3 despite taking a scary hit, I'll bet he finds a way to suit up tonight in this critical matchup.
The ability to find favorable matchups via the last change on home ice seemed to help Tampa's top line thrive in Game 3. That unit played to a 90.3% expected goals rate in a large 16-minute sample size, generating 30 shots on goal.
Kucherov has generated a wealth of shots both at even strength and on the power play in this series. He has 13 shots on goal in the first three matchups and just missed this number in a very noncompetitive Game 2.
I love the chances that this matchup ends up being close and hard-fought. If that's the case, Kucherov, Point and Stamkos will play big minutes, adding to their value in prop markets.
Betting Kucherov to record three shots at even-money is a very reasonable look. Point is another valid option, but with the outside chance he starts the game but cannot finish due to injury, he's an intimidating option. A loss could result in frustrated bettors hoping for refunds.
Matthew Knies Any Time Goal Scorer (+470)
| Game | Leafs vs. Lightning |
| Puck Drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Toronto's third line of Ryan O'Reilly, Matthew Knies and Noel Acciari was very noticeable in the back half of Game 3.
Knies in particular looked excellent in the overtime period, and his confidence at the NHL level seems to be growing. Knies was one of the very best in college hockey this year, scoring 21 goals in 40 games with Minnesota.
He's clearly earning the trust of head coach Sheldon Keefe garnering better usage. With Toronto needing a goal late in the third, Knies was on the ice in the 6-on-5 situation.
He deserved that treatment, and I think there's a good chance he breaks through with his first NHL goal before the series is over.
Pick: Matthew Knies Any Time Goal Scorer (+470) |
Jared McCann Any Time Goal Scorer (+210)
| Game | Avalanche vs. Kraken |
| Puck Drop | 10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
I continue to believe that a matchup between Colorado and Seattle sets up to be more high-scoring than oddsmakers expect. The game total from this matchup is 6, and I like the game to head over that mark.
The Kraken are -130 to record over 2.5 goals, and again, I think that's disrespecting their chances to exceed that number.
Seattle is generating some really good chances, and Avs goalie Alexandar Georgiev has not looked overly sharp in the series thus far. The Avs' superstars will likely win this matchup and score several goals themselves, but Colorado should continue to allow plenty of quality chances against when they're not on the ice.
That automatically makes me like goal scorers in this matchup, and I believe we have two good ones with the most likely candidates.
Jared McCann was more noticeable in Game 3. He ripped a shot from the inner slot off of Georgiev's knob late in the third and collected an assist on Matty Beniers' even-strength tally.
McCann was scorching hot to finish the season and ultimately ended up recording the first 40-goal campaign in Kraken history.
Nathan MacKinnon Any Time Goal Scorer (+110)
| Game | Avalanche vs. Kraken |
| Puck Drop | 10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
MacKinnon was comically dominant in Game 3, and at times, was essentially just toying with the Kraken in the offensive zone en route to two goals and five shots on target.
this sequence by MacKinnon was genuinely hilarious pic.twitter.com/ydSOMsambU
— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) April 23, 2023
Betting him to record over 4.5 shots on goal at -155 is another good look, but I have come to the conclusion that backing him to score is a better play at this number.
MacKinnon is generating legitimate chances to score instead of simply peppering useless shots on goal.
With Philipp Grubauer looking relatively out of sorts and small in his net on midrange attempts at goal, I love the chances MacKinnon turns another of what will surely be many scoring opportunities into a goal.
